Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 301035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
635 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as high
pressure builds into the area. FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus somewhere
around 6kft can be expected this afternoon. Otherwise, skies will
remain mostly clear. WSW flow will mix to WNW and increase to near
10 knots by midday, and then veer to the N and NE with time as the
center of high pressure settles over lower Michigan.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for ceilings of 5000 FT this afternoon


Issued at 347 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016


Quiet conditions prevail but watching two upper waves on water vapor
imagery. First wave tracking across southern Michigan now will exit
into Canada by mid-morning, and only result in a few mid clouds.
Larger upper wave over Wisconsin will have a slightly bigger impact
on our weather today. Models take it right across the Lower
Peninsula today during peak heating, and do develop a weak surface
trough across the area in response. Looking at GFS/NAM model
forecast soundings, moisture looks to be confined to a small layer
between 800-700mb and upper wave does not look to have a sufficient
cold pool (per model forecast data) to erode cap in place above this
layer. This will limit convective depths for this afternoon, and
think we will see only sprinkles at best. Subsidence behind the wave
by mid-evening will help skies clear as surface high pressure and
upper ridging build in overnight. Temperatures will remain above
normal today as H925 temps recover fairly close to what they were
yesterday despite frontal passage. While max temperatures still warm
into the low and mid 80s, dewpoints in the 50s (perhaps even some
40s across the northern portion of the forecast area) will allow
humidity to ease and make for a more comfortable day. High pressure
and clear skies tonight will bring the coolest temperatures we have
seen in days, but still slightly above normal in the low 50s to low
60s in the Detroit heat island.

Upper ridging will build into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night in
response to a large upper low digging into the Northern Plains.
Weather should stay quiet and warm, but we will see an increase in
mid and high clouds by Tuesday night.

Models remain in good agreement with the upper low slowly tracking
across Ontario late Wednesday into Thursday. Southerly flow into the
area ahead of the system will draw a plume of deeper moisture back
up into the area ahead of a cold front Wednesday evening through
early Thursday morning, with H850 dewpoints rising just over 10C on
the GFS. May see a few showers/tstorms develop Wednesday evening
before a more solid band of showers with embedded thunder develops
over the area Wednesday night as cold front works across the area
and right entrance region forcing slides in with an upper jetlet
working through the northern Great Lakes. Nocturnal timing to
forcing will help to limit severe threat.


With a ridge of surface high pressure building into the central
Great Lakes in the wake of passing cold front, winds are expected to
remain relatively light as stronger pressure gradient immediately
behind the frontal boundary shifts east of the area quickly. The
high pressure builds over the area into Tuesday and Tuesday night,
maintaining a rather light easterly flow. While some enhanced wind
gusts will be possible from funneling on Saginaw Bay, Small Craft
Advisory conditions do not appear likely. A stronger cold front is
forecast to cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This
will provide the next chance for thunderstorms. South to southeast
flow will increase to some degree in advance of this system with
gusts into the 20 knot range by Wednesday over the open waters of
Lake Huron.


Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.



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