Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 301541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
941 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sat...

***Reminder, our radar, KGGW, will be down for scheduled
 maintenance until Saturday April 1***

Drier air is entraining into the area today a little more than
what was expected and this will hold the rainshowers from moving
into the CWA this afternoon. Therefore lowered pops. Evening looks
wet for the SE zones. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
Upper trough currently moving inland from the Pacific will dig
south today into the desert southwest and become a closed low this
evening over either southern Nevada or northern Arizona.
Southwest to southerly flow aloft ahead of this trough will extend
into Montana today and tonight bringing moisture into the state.
An inverted surface trough will become stronger today over eastern
Montana and there will be rain showers mainly south of the
Missouri River during the day. That surface trough drifts slowly
east towards the North Dakota border and the moisture appears to
be mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area. However,
there is some model variation in where the precipitation will
occur so there will be a mix of chance and likely pops tonight.
Temperatures will stay for all rain for this event.

Chances for showers will linger through most of Friday. A northern
stream shortwave trough moves southeast out of Alberta and across
Northeast Montana Friday afternoon and evening moving the moisture
to the east. Light winds and wet ground could lead to some patchy
fog early Saturday morning.

Upper ridge builds into the area on Saturday with dry weather and
somewhat warmer temperatures. Forrester

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...
The extended forecast period gets underway Saturday night into
Sunday with models indicating a passage of the next shortwave
trough. With it, expect some isolated to widely scattered rain
showers across portions of northeast Montana.

A deeper and more amplified trough over the western CONUS will
translate east early next week with steadier chances for rain
showers across northeast Montana. Models still differ on exact
timing and placement of highest QPF, which may remain south of the
CWA. Still, current forecast suggests wetting rains possible south
of the Missouri River and across the Yellowstone River Valley.

Latest 12z ensemble 500mb heights still indicate north to south
ridging building into western Montana for the midweek with warmer
temperatures and drier weather conditions the result. Maliawco


VFR conditions are expected this morning. Showers are expected to
move into KGDV this evening. With this rain expect potential MVFR
CIGS and VSBY overnight.

Area winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 10 mph this
morning, gradually becoming north this afternoon. Exceptions may
exist at KSDY to KOLF where easterly winds may persist into the
evening hours. Maliawco/TFJ




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