Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 201031
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
331 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Wed...

Several forecast challenges are in place over the short term
period. In the near term areas of dense fog continue which is
evident according to some of the regional cameras. However,
visibilities have recovered in the immediate Glasgow area. With
narrow dew point depressions and variable winds in place, will let
the headlines ride for now.

The flood watch will remain in place through Tuesday afternoon as
well given areal ice jams and potential for river rises and
resultant flooding.

Otherwise, expecting warmer temperatures on Monday along with
height rises associated with a building ridge. A large trough over
the western U.S. however looks to amplify toward the midweek and
translate east. With it will return increased chances for
precipitation from west to east, especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Thermal profiles are marginal, suggesting a rain and
snow mix at this time. Maliawco



.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...


Upper trough moves through the Central and Northern Rockies
Wednesday Night and Thursday. The surface low tracks well to the
south across Colorado and Kansas which will keep most of the
precipitation to the south of the forecast area with this system.
However, flow aloft becomes split with this system Wednesday Night
and models bring a northern stream wave across the region
Wednesday Night and Thursday that could bring a chance of snow
into Northeast Montana.

A weak wave on Friday could bring a slight chance of snow to the
southwest half of the forecast area.

NW flow aloft will prevail over the weekend and early next week
keeping temperatures near normal or slight below. Shortwave trough
on Saturday and again Sunday Night and Monday could bring slight
chances for snow into the area.

Forrester



&&

.AVIATION...

Flight Category: A mix of VFR, MVFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions this
morning due to areas of fog. Mainly VFR this afternoon and evening with
mid and high clouds. A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings late tonight
with low and mid level clouds.

Synopsis: Dense fog covers the northeast part of NE Montana early
this morning with visibility near zero. Among TAF sites, the dense
fog is impacting KOLF the most. KGGW and KSDY has been on the
fringes with variable visibilities and KGDV in the clear. This fog
will lift this morning as winds turn to the west.

A frontal system will move through the area late tonight and
Tuesday morning with some low clouds possible.

Winds: Light and variable winds early will become west this
morning at 5 to 10 knots and turn to the southwest this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Ice Jam was detected just south of Glendive on the Yellowstone
river Sunday afternoon and remains in place early this morning.
River levels measured at Glendive show a steady, however slow
uptick in river levels as the 5 mile long ice jam moves downstream
into Glendive. River is still 5 feet below flood stage at 3 am.

A ice jam at the highway 24 bridge over the Milk River downstream
of Glasgow continues to remain in place this morning. The Milk
River is steady around 21.5 feet or 3.5 feet below flood stage.
The Milk River continues to rise in the Nashua area at 15.3 feet
and is about 4 feet below flood stage this morning.

The big muddy river in Sheridan county near Antelope continues to
rise with a 5 foot increase in river levels that last 24 hours and
was about 2.5 feet below flood stage this morning.

Warmer than normal weather will continue for another 48 hours for
the region that will continue to add more water into the river
systems and add to any flooding issues.

A flood watch is in effect for Prairie, Dawson, and Richland
counties along the Yellowstone River for ice jam flooding through
Tuesday afternoon.

A flood watch is in effect for Sheridan county for the big muddy
river through Tuesday afternoon.

A flood watch is in effect for Valley county for areas along the
Milk River downstream from Hinsdale to the confluence of the
Missouri River through Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for Central and
Southern Valley...Daniels...Eastern Roosevelt...Northern
Valley...Sheridan...Western Roosevelt.

Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Central and Southern
Valley...Dawson...Prairie...Richland...Sheridan.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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