Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 241510
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
910 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING WAS TO TWEAK RH DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE WES WINDS DO NOT NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WAS ALSO SPREAD OUT ACROSS PETROLEUM...
SOUTHERN PHILLIPS... AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES TO INCLUDE
SURFACE BASED CAPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY/TRANSITIONED
TO AN INCOMING WARM FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SURFACE WIND ENERGIZED...BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH PLUNGES
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY WHICH WILL PUSH UP A NARROW RIDGE
OVER MONTANA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. SO THE RIDGE WILL BRING ABOUT NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE PLUNGING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND EJECT IT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE WARMER
WATERS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY
MORE MOISTURE BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MOISTURE PLUME
REACHES THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DIRECTING MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING WILL GENERATE STRONG EASTERLY WIND TO BRING
IN SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST
THE FLUCTUATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLOCKING PATTERN CAUSED BY LOWS OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO WRAP INTO THE STORM SYSTEM. AN INVERTED TROF WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AND WITH A LITTLE
COLD AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MAINLY
NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER ON MONDAY. INITIALLY THE WARM AIR IN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST...COULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND PRECIPITATION TYPE...THEN OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE PRECIPITATION END AND THE WEST RIDGE BUILD INTO
THE REGION. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND
THAT POINT. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LOWERING BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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