Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 271312
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
612 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED IN PLACE OVER INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BENEATH RIDGE AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED AGAIN TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA RANGING TO LOWER 60S TO THE WEST IN
PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA TONIGHT FLATTENING
RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND BRINGING SOME GENERAL CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BRITTON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FIND ITSELF NEARLY CONSTANTLY UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AND IN AN INCESSANT BATTLE BETWEEN COLDER AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES THAT SLIDE THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PREDOMINANTLY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE WAS JUST BARELY ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS
TO BRING SOME OF THOSE AREAS UP TO CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A
TREND TO CLIMO POPS MAKES THE MOST SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THE FLOW PATTERN AND SMALLER-SCALE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND PLACES NORTHEAST
MONTANA MORE IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BECOMING
BROKEN MID-LEVEL AFTER 00Z.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA AFTER 00Z FOR INCREASED MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

AREA WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KTS.

BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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