Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 051007
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
407 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL
TOPPLE OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MORE
SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OVER REGINA AND SWIFT CURRENT
ON METARS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT
ARRIVE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS... EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS: RADAR TRENDS FOR STORMS IN THE AREA
CURRENTLY SHOW THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH. A FEW
CELLS MAY BE SEVERE BUT OTHER THAN KGDV... SEVERE IS QUICKLY
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS RAIN SHOWERS TAKE HOLD.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING... BACKING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. VARIABLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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