Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 250438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
938 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...

930PM Update...

With temperatures across much of northeast Montana in the 30s, the
current forecast looks to be in good shape, with lows still
expected to dip down to the mid to upper 20s over most of the
area. High clouds are streaming into the area from over the front
range of the Rockies, and this high cloudiness should prevail
through the overnight hours. Overall, this should be a pretty
quiet period as an upper level ridge will dominate the weather
pattern for much of the weekend. Hickford

Evening Update...

Mainly populated obs and blended with the latest near term models.
With RH`s still in the low to mid 30s across the southwestern
zones, adjusted dewpoints and RH`s down a bit across those
areas to better reflect recent and current observations. Winds
have diminished enough around Fort Peck Lake, so am expiring the
Lake Wind Advisory. Otherwise, no updates were needed. Hickford

Previous Discussion...

Breezy conditions continue across the region this afternoon close
to lake wind criteria. As a result, the Lake Wind Advisory
remains in effect for Fort Peck Lake.

An upper ridge will gradually build and amplify over the western
U.S. into Saturday. This pattern will lead to large scale
subsidence and therefore dry weather with mild temperatures. Highs
in general will remain in the 50s. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Fri...
The inherited long term remains in good shape depicting an upper
ridge gradually shifting east as the next cold front and upper
trough positions itself toward the region early next week. Models
continue to keep most of the precipitation late MOnday further
south across the region, so slight chance pops maintained for the
southern zones.

By midweek, a second trough will approach from the Pacific with
additional showers possible as that system pushes through.
Otherwise expect another round of cooler temperatures to follow
for the second half of next week. Maliawco

Previous Long Term Discussion:

The upper ridge shifts eastward on Sunday in response to a trof
digging south from the Gulf of Alaska. Warm front lifts across
eastern Montana with low again forming in southern Alberta. Models
continue to split the upper trof as it moves out of the Pacific,
digging the southern portion into the desert SW states, and taking
the precipitation southward. Still could see a little rain across
southern Montana with the cold front on Monday.

A second trof moves out of the Pacific on Wednesday and could have
enough moisture for showers but mainly will bring a reinforcing
shot of cooler air. This will keep temperatures slightly above
normal for most of the week. Ebert


VFR conditions are expected as winds diminish this evening. West
to winds of 5 to 10 kts are expected across area terminals
tonight and Saturday morning, becoming more southwesterly at 10
to 15 kts at around 18Z. Maliawco/Hickford




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