Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 230115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
615 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018


The inherited forecast was in good shape, and only minor
adjustments to reflect current obs were needed. That being said,
temperatures are rapidly dropping, and GOES-16 satellite imagery
shows cold air rapidly expanding outward from the river valleys.
So am a little concerned that temperatures may drop below forecast
lows this evening. As winds are expected to be very light
tonight, decided against issuing any headlines for wind chills. If
clouds take longer than anticipated to move in or if temperatures
drop much below forecast, may have to revisit that decision. Will
keep a close eye on that this evening. AEH

Previous Discussion...

...Warmer Times Ahead...

Upper trough over the West with a broad SW flow over the East will
continue through the weekend. This will allow the Arctic airmass
to gradually modify.

Temperatures tonight will be a concern again tonight but a weak
system will be spreading clouds east into the western zones. This
should limit the mercury from bottoming out. With light winds
expected, wind chills for the most part do not look to be a
widespread concern, but a few places especially in Phillips county
may experience hazardous wind chills.

That system moves to our east with periods of clouds moving
through the CWA over the weekend. Some increase in wind from the
west may move into the SW zones producing patchy blowing snow
Sunday and/or Sunday Night despite temperatures a degree or two
above freezing. Issued an HWO for this concern and for the
possibility of stronger winds. This may be a concern for areas to
the north and east, but for now, will just limit it to where
scripts were indicating patchy blowing snow.

Beyond this, some mixing out of the arctic should allow
temperatures to hold closer toward normal. However, a clear night
with light winds could throw the river valleys back into the
cold. TFJ


Expect VFR conditions to continue despite clouds increasing from
the west tonight. Winds will remain generally light through
tonight and much of tomorrow. TFJ/AEH




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