633
FXUS65 KGGW 080900
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
300 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- The rain and wind continues to diminish through Thursday as
  drier air moves in from the east.

- Flooding concerns remain minimal as a lot of the rain has soaked
  into the ground. Within bank rises are expected, but flooding
  is not at this time.

- There is high confidence for warmer than normal and mostly dry
  conditions from this weekend into much of next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A slow-moving strong spring storm system will continue to weaken
and become more disorganized. Rain showers and a stray
thunderstorm will continue at times into Thursday, particularly
toward central Montana. Relatively drier air infiltrating from the
northeast is just enough to elevate winds into Lake Wind Advisory
criteria through this afternoon. A flat ridge will push in from
the Pacific Northwest across the Northern Rockies later this week,
allowing for a drying and warming trend to begin.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

There is medium confidence on the precise timing of when shower
activity will subside through Thursday, with the winds and
precipitation chances kept near or slightly above the NBM. High
confidence exists on a warming trend this weekend, as
deterministic forecast highs in the 70s and lower 80s are
currently on the lower end of the ensemble ranges.

-Zanker


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: Low VFR/MVFR/IFR

DISCUSSION: Ceilings will generally straddle MVFR/IFR threshold
with lingering low clouds and scattered rain showers from a
weakening low pressure system. There is medium (60%) confidence
for gradual improvement to low end VFR across the TAF sites by
02Z.

WINDS: Northeast at 15-20 kts gusting to around 30 kts through
this afternoon, becoming north at 5-10 kts in the evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow