Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
258 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Rain and cool Fall weather conditions have arrived ahead of an
upper trough over the Rockies. A north to south elongated band of
rain, which was oriented across western Nebraska/Kansas overnight
has been gradually edging east toward our central cwa, towards the
Highway 281 corridor. Rain amounts across our western zones in
the last 24 hours ending at 7 AM include 1.33 inches in Lexington
and 1.10 inches in Cambridge, with rain still falling today.

The rain and cold frontal boundary will slowly work east tonight and
Monday bringing widespread and decent rainfall amounts to south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Rain amounts of 1 to 2
inches on average still look reasonable with locally higher amounts
possible. Due to the recent dry weather and long duration of the
rain, we are not looking for any hydro/flooding concerns with the
precipiation. The potential for thunderstorms remain limited, but
not quite zero today with a few hundred j/kg of instability
around, and by Monday the area of instability shifts southeast
into north central Kansas.

Monday will really feel like Fall with the cooler air in place,
cloud cover and rain around. Temperatures will struggle to rise much
if any, with low/mid 50s forecast for highs in our western zones to
the mid 60s in the southeast, which are well below the mid 70s we
typically see for highs in late September. The majority of Monday is
shaping up to be more wet than dry through the daytime, with some
drying out possible in our northwest zones towards evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The main rain area shifts east along the progressing cold front
Monday night/early Tuesday, however small chances for rain linger
into the first part of Tuesday in lift as the upper trough over the
Rockies splits, with the northern wave lifting across the central
and northern plains. Drier air advects in during the daytime
Tuesday, while surface high pressure reinforces the cooler
airmass. The surface ridge axis builds southeast Wednesday
allowing for a slight moderation in temperatures.

The pattern transitions to northwest flow for the latter part of the
week, with temps trending closer to normal Thursday in the low/mid
70s, then a clipper backs in cooler air for Friday. Have kept the
forecast dry through the extended, however the weekend is trending a
little more unsettled with a potential trough crossing the plains
which may return rain chances to the forecast if latest model
trends hold.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Varying conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
regards to timing of low clouds along/behind a cold and when the
terminals will see the best chances for rainfall. At 17Z the cold
front was located just west of KEAR with cloud heights varying
from MVFR to IFR. The cold front and low clouds will gradually
work east the next 24 hours, with IFR or LIFR conditions possible
at times Monday. An elongated band of rain associated with the
boundary and ahead of an upper low pressure system will gradually
shift east over the terminals with the best chances heading into
the evening through Monday based on the latest short term models.





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