Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271321
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
821 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Significantly adjusted PoPs to match radar trends this morning.
Behind the main line of showers/storms, there are still a few
showers lingering around the state line, but otherwise most
locations will stay dry this morning. I included some chance PoPs
this afternoon as short-term guidance suggests some lapse-rate
driven showers this afternoon. Coverage of these will likely be
very limited though.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will be coming to an end across the
local area through the afternoon hours. With little instability
to work with...severe weather is not anticipated. In fact...most
of the precipitation across south central Nebraska will likely be
thunder free...while more scattered thunderstorms...possibly with
gusty winds and small hail...will be possible across portions of
north central Kansas through the morning hours.

Expect a cooler airmass to infiltrate the region this afternoon
behind the responsible trough of low pressure and associated cold
front. While far from bitterly cold...temperatures will run 5-10
degrees below seasonable norms, with most locations not climbing
out of the 60s.

Dry weather will return to the region by the evening hours...and
with clearing skies and generally light winds...expect overnight
lows to fall to near or just below climatological norms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Aloft: The last 2 model runs cont to indicate cyclonic NW flow will
prevail Sun-Wed with a high amplitude ridge over Wrn N America and a
low over Ontario. Wed-Thu deamplification is fcst as heights fall
along the W coast...shoving the ridge E. Weakening NW flow will cont
into Thu...but fcst confidence decreases substantially Fri-Sat as
weak/split flow develops. A cut-off low or trof is fcst to break off
somewhere over the SW or S-cntrl USA...with a low-amplitude ridge
fcst to overtake the Cntrl/Nrn Plns. The 18Z/00Z GFS and the GEFS
mean develop a low over AZ while the 12Z/00Z EC/CMC develop it over
TX. That is some serious spread. Weak vort maxima embedded within
the Nrn and Srn streams have low predictability this far out in
these situations.

Surface: Wrn USA high pres will nudge into the rgn Sun while a
Canadian cool front will be dropping into the Nrn Rockies/Plns. This
front will pass thru the CWA Mon. High pres will follow...dropping
into the Nrn Plns Tue and the mid MS Vly Wed. The NW=SE oriented
front will be W of the CWA...but it is still fcst to begin edging
back to the NE as a warm front late Wed. This front could be
responsible for generating some tstm activity Wed night into Thu.
Thu it should be N and E of the CWA with the CWA in the warm sector.
Thereafter there`s just too much uncertainty to say much with any
confidence.

Temps: Basically near normal thru Fri.

Rain: Models are probably convecting way too much compared to what
actually will happen. Forcing will be anemic. The only legit
potential for something meaningful appears to be Wed night into Thu
AM as the rich 850 mb moisture plume advects N and the low-lvl jet
develops and intersects the advancing warm front. Anything else that
might develop will be extremely spotty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Improving conditions are expected at the terminals over the next
24 hours. Expect mid level stratus to continue to thin and shift
east as we work our way through the morning hours...with some
marginal LLWS also diminishing by 27/15 or 27/16Z. Otherwise...VFR
conditions and light northerly breezes will return this afternoon
and prevail through the evening and overnight hours.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Rossi


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