Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 292130
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENT SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY...AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND
THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS OF MID AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL FRIDAY MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  55  33  58 /   5   0   0   7
MERIDIAN      40  55  30  57 /   7   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     41  55  34  58 /   5   0   0   8
HATTIESBURG   43  59  33  61 /   8   0   0   4
NATCHEZ       42  55  36  60 /   5   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    37  51  32  53 /   3   0   0   6
GREENWOOD     37  52  31  56 /   4   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/EC



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