Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 090550 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1150 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Non convective low level wind shear was added to all TAFs as the sfc
winds have become light enough combined with the winds through 2 kft
greater than 30kts on average. This will last until after 13Z.
Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will continue to decrease across
the south and VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening.
/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday:Finally getting a decent amount of breaks in the
cloud cover this afternoon. I don`t know about you, but this is the
first time I`ve seen the sun in about a week. This sunshine in
portions of South- Central and Southeast Mississippi has allowed
temperatures there to sneak up into the low to middle 50s although
elsewhere the any sunshine has had a hard time having an upward
impact in surface temps thanks to strong cold air advection. Expect
patchy mid to high layer clouds to continue streaming overhead from
southwest to northeast into this evening with these clouds finally
exiting to the south and east by late tonight.

Normally the clearing skies and drying atmosphere would instigate
strong radiational cooling, but in this case the incoming modified
arctic high pressure center should keep the pressure gradient up
enough to continue at least some north winds in most areas through
the night. These winds will of course limit radiational cooling
potential a bit and expected below average lows ranging from the
lower to upper 20s from the north to south would be even colder if
winds were to die off. Minimum temperatures tonight are some 10 to
15 degrees below normal for early December but still not cold enough
to meet hard freeze criteria.

Winds will be a little less tomorrow as the high pressure center
moves to a location very nearby and these lesser winds, combined
with ample sun, will help make the outdoors not terrible (despite
continuing below normal readings). Calming winds by tomorrow evening
should really set the stage for plummeting temps as the sun sets on
your Friday. /BB/

Saturday through Thursday: Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s
are expected to start off this Saturday. Then as the surface high
continues moving eastward, a return of southeasterly winds should
help bump afternoon temperatures up a few degrees over Friday`s. Much
warmer and more humid air should build in by Sunday and Monday under
continued southerly flow, with conditions being fairly normal for
this time of year heading into early next week. Zonal flow aloft will
continue through the middle of next week, while a colder and deeper
airmass remains situated over southern Canada and the northern CONUS.
A few passing shortwaves will be the focus for any sensible weather
changes across our forecast area next week - especially rain chances
with a cold front Sunday night/Monday and temperatures with a
Wednesday/Thursday cold front.

Extended models have exhibited some disagreement regarding the
strength and timing of these features, however they do seem to be
coming into better agreement as of today`s runs. The early week
system looks to have weak enough support that some unstable air will
have a chance to build in ahead of it, and the front may have a hard
time clearing the southern portions of our forecast area. Therefore
have spread slight chance to chance POPs from Sunday night through
Wednesday - with the most likely period for precip in our area being
Sunday night into Monday. Also introduced a mention of thunder
during the day Monday, as forecast soundings indicate a few hundred
Jules of surface or low-level CAPE may be available ahead of the
front. We could possibly see some additional light precip chances
with the Wednesday/Thursday front especially if a surface low can
develop along the front, but the primary impact is more likely to be
another round of chilly air behind the front. At the current time it
appears that precip should be clear of our forecast area before the
coldest air moves in, so no wintry precip is expected with that
system. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       27  45  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      24  46  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     25  43  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   29  48  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       27  44  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    25  40  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     23  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

22/BB/NF



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