Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 290850
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
350 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.Discussion...Today through Friday night...Current GOES water vapor
satellite imagery and upper air analysis depict an upper level closed
low spinning just south of the Great Lakes. Closer to the ArkLaMiss,
an associated reinforcing cold front is making its way through our
region. This front is marked by a narrow band of clouds and a
noticeable dewpoint gradient. Temperatures this morning will
continue to fall as cold air continues to advect into the area behind
the front. The front should have pushed south of the JAN CWA by 12Z.
High temperatures will struggle to reach 80 degrees today and
tomorrow. Daily lows will occur just before midnight at most climate
sites today. Fire weather is a concern worth mentioning today,
however the threat will be minimal at best due to increasing moisture
in the areas where winds would support a fire hazard. The radiational
cooling effect will be more prevalent tonight and tomorrow night as
winds decrease after sunset and skies remain clear. Expect lows to
dip into the lower 50s Friday and Saturday mornings./JPM3/

.LONG TERM...

.DISCUSSION...Saturday through Wednesday night...Looks like a pretty
quiet extended forecast is on tap for the ArkLaMiss. Upper troughing
will continue over the area on Saturday as the upper low over the
ohio valley continues to move to the northeast. The models due
suggest a weak frontal boundary dropping across the area Saturday
afternoon, with this boundary mainly being a wind shift to a more
northeast flow. A nice day is on tap for Saturday with highs only
climbing into the low 80s. Another cool night is on tap for Saturday
night as the winds should decouple allowing for good radiational
cooling Sunday morning. Lows will generally be in the mid 50s.

The global models suggest warmer h850/h925 temps on Sunday, thus
expect warmer afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Both the GFS/ECMWF
begin to build upper ridging over the area Sunday night into Monday
with a warming trend beginning. Highs on Monday will climb into the
mid 80s, and as upper heights increase across the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees. The GFS/ECMWF both deepen an upper trough over
the southern plains on Wednesday with the ECMWF the faster of the
models. The ECMWF develops some precip over the area on Wednesday
and Wednesday night, while the GFS keeps the precip west of the area
through this period. Will introduce just slight chance thunder
across portions of the area during this period./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      80  50  78  52 /   0   0   2   0
Vicksburg     78  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   81  53  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       76  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    76  53  78  55 /   0   0   2   0
Greenwood     76  52  77  53 /   0   0   3   0

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

JPM3/15



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