Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 312024
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARBY.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX
BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST MS AS
ONE PIECE OF A H7-H5 S/WV TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
THINNING HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 80S
THIS AFTN FOR SOME AREAS. THESE BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT WITH SLOW MODERATION INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER 80S
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY...MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER WILL BE
COMBINATION OF INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER AND EMBEDDED NW FLOW S/WV TROUGHS CROSSING REGION.
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS W/SW AREAS SUPPORTING
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER GIVEN PASSING
S/WV TROUGH ENERGY. /ALLEN/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A
1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING. GREATEST POPS THURSDAY
WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL.  WINDS FOR TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  85  69  88 /  23  38  28  49
MERIDIAN      64  86  67  89 /  17  27  26  55
VICKSBURG     66  84  67  88 /  47  44  32  42
HATTIESBURG   65  89  70  90 /  17  33  29  53
NATCHEZ       67  85  69  89 /  43  44  29  44
GREENVILLE    66  82  69  86 /  43  38  26  35
GREENWOOD     66  83  67  87 /  31  30  27  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/28





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