Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 252106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017


Tonight and Friday...

Departing mid level cold core low has left dry northwest flow in
its wake over the forecast area today as ridging takes over aloft.
After a cool morning in the lower 50s, temperatures have warmed
quite efficiently in the dry airmass with upper 70s and near 80
being seen at observation points this afternoon. As surface high
pressure slides east this evening the resulting southerly winds
will keep mins some 10 degrees warmer than last night. The low
level dry air will allow for another efficient warming day Friday,
at least in the east as mid 50s dewpoints hang on. In the west,
dewpoints will start creeping back up through the 60s into the
lower 70s with humid conditions in place by afternoon./26/

Friday night through next week...

An active weather pattern will prevail throughout the extended
period impacting the upcoming Memorial Day weekend and lasting
through the end of May and the first few days of June.

The holiday weekend will begin with nearly zonal upper level flow
over the region while mid and low level temperatures reach
anomalously high values on Saturday. This should lead to
temperatures reaching the low 90s throughout the region.
Increasing southerly flow near the surface will result in
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. The warm temps coupled with moist
dewpoints could result in heat indices surpassing the 100 degree
mark on Saturday afternoon. Although heat indices won`t reach
heat advisory criteria, heat danger will pose a threat to
vulnerable citizens of the region if precautions are not taken.

Further west on Saturday, a positively tilted upper trough,
associated with an upper closed low centered over southern
Canada, will being to cross the Plains. By the time the associated
cold front reaches the eastern Plains, a moist, buoyant warm
sector will have extended as far north as the Great Lakes and as
far west as Kansas. PWats will increase throughout the day on
Saturday as storms begin to fire along the front as it makes its
way through the Plains. Several models develop an MCS ahead of the
front late Saturday over the eastern Plains and pushing into the
Mid-South Saturday night. Our first threat of storms through the
period will be on Sunday morning in the northern sections of the
ArkLaMiss and will be dependent on if any storms associated with
an MCS pushing through the Mid-South will be able to maintain any
intensity as they enter our region. Widespread storms on Sunday
morning don`t seem likely in the ArkLaMiss due to a strong cap
over the region. However, chances of strong storms will continue
to increase throughout the day on Sunday as the slow moving front
begins to approach the region and the cap begins to degrade.

Storm chances will continue to increase on Sunday night and
through Memorial Day as the slow moving front makes its way
southward through the ArkLaMiss. The airmass south of the
east/west oriented front will remain unstable as the front slows
even more. This front will linger throughout the region through
at least mid-week, resulting in rain and storm chances each day
before it begins to retreat northward as a warm front later in the

The main threat with storms this weekend and through next week
will be damaging straight line winds and large hail. Flash
flooding will also be a threat due to the slow moving almost
stagnant nature of this system. /jpm3/


18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period.


Jackson       62  90  70  90 /   0   0   8  11
Meridian      59  90  67  89 /   0   0   5  10
Vicksburg     63  90  71  90 /   0   0   8  10
Hattiesburg   61  89  68  91 /   0   0   8  11
Natchez       64  89  72  89 /   0   0   7  11
Greenville    65  88  71  88 /   0   0   7  14
Greenwood     63  88  70  88 /   0   0   5  14




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