Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 280155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. PWATS IN 00Z KJAN SOUNDING HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY ONLY AROUND 1.1 INCHES...ADDED TO SOME
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF...IS AIDING IN
SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE SRN ZONES. MOISTURE IS DEEPER
FURTHER S AS 00Z KLIX SOUNDING INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN THE S BUT SHOULD DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THUS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING
EXCEPT THE FAR SW. OVERALL LOWS ARE ON TRACK AND ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
A BRIEF PERIOD 11-13Z THU OF MVFR VSBYS OVR THE AREA. THU AFTN ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ALSO BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER THAN
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE THEIR INFLUENCE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THEREFORE ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE LOW TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOMORROW...BUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.

BY LATER FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONFIDENT THAT AN INCOMING AND
NON-TRIVIAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR VICINITY AND PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO OUR REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
BEGIN IMPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INLAND. STILL THINKING MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT THOSE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY DUE TO RELATIVE IMPORTANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES AROUND
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY REMAINS QUITE VALID AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TRENDS ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
MENTION IN THE HWO. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO
BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW
NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS
FOR TEMPS DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  71  95 /   5   6  11  19
MERIDIAN      63  95  68  94 /   4   4   9  16
VICKSBURG     66  94  70  93 /   7  11  16  21
HATTIESBURG   70  95  72  93 /  12  12   8  35
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  92 /  13  23  15  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  72  93 /   4   3  13  25
GREENWOOD     65  95  70  94 /   3   2  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BB/CME





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