Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070227 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
927 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. RAIN CHANCES HAVE ENDED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. AN UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER IN THE EVENING
TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES, BUT NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FROM THE NORTH AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WERE
BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING AND WL CONT TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 11Z-13Z TUE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE SOUTH BUT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CERTAIN. ISOLD AFTN
TSTMS LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TUE. /22/

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS WORK WEEK LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE
TREND TO MORE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE E AND MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY KEEP
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOW. IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS, IT WOULD HAVE A
CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY IFFY NATURE
OF CONVECTION THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO REMOVE THE
GRAPHIC AND SENT OUT A CLEAR HWO. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS GRADUALLY EJECTS TO THE NE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE EFFECTS
OF THE LINGERING UPPER JET WILL MOVE AWAY WITH IT. THERE ALSO LOOKS
TO BE A DEVELOPING H3 UPPER LOW IN THE GULF THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
TO THE W THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY). IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS...COOL TEMPS ALOFT/SOME GOOD LAPSE RATES WOULD
BRING SOME CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER...OVERALL LOW CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC/SFC PATTERN...INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND SOME MID 90S CREEPING IN
THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S AREAWIDE
EACH NIGHT. HEAT INDICES WILL BECOME EVEN MORE MUGGY IN THE UPPER 90S
TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES AS WE GO LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR BLEND OF EURO/GFS NEXT FEW DAYS AS
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FOR THE HIGHS/LOWS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE IN THE S AND EURO SEEMED TO CAPTURE IT WELL...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WENT NEAR RAW GUIDANCE. ATTACHED RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEYOND
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN TO KEEP
TSTM COVERAGE LIMITED. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO REACH THE
MID 90S...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 F RANGE WILL BE
MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA REGION. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/DC/EC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.