Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 212022
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
322 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...

Latest RAP satellite imagery showed the area showed the region under
an upper ridge which extended through the Lower Mississippi Valley
as well as under a shear axis over the southern areas which extended
from an upper trough over the eastern seaboard. Also a weak
shortwave was pushing across the region from the east. This combined
with some cooling aloft and some low level moisture had triggered
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the south. With 6-7c lapse
rates we may see a few strong storms with some gusty winds for the
remainder of the afternoon. Expect the weak shortwave to exit the
region by late tonight. The isolated showers should dissipate by 00z.
For later tonight expecting another round of patchy fog prior to
dawn across the northwest delta and the south which will lift by
14z. Another weak shortwave will push through on Friday. Return flow
ahead of this feature will trigger isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon. Lapse rates look a little
weaker as far as strong strong potential is concern.

As far as temperatures are concern readings will continue to be
above normal. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs will
be in the lower 90s. Heat indices will range from the middle to
upper 90s./17/

Friday night through mid week next week...

Not much change in the forecast is expected over the next several
days as temperatures in the region will remain above their late
September averages under a humid airmass. The chances of diurnal
thunderstorm activity will also be present each day during the
period. There will only be slight changes in the upper level
pattern over the weekend with the deep troughing over the western
CONUS and ridging over the east. A broad, weak upper low will
begin to develop underneath the ridge, becoming centered over the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday. At the surface, the ArkLaMiss will
remain on the western periphery of a broad surface high that will
encompass the eastern half of the CONUS. Pwats will range between
1.3"- 1.9" through the period. Long term models suggest a front
will finally sweep through region late next week bringing with it
organized chances of rain/storms and cooler temperatures in its
wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Some isolated convection will again be possible this afternoon.
This could again result in a brief bout of degraded flight
categories at sites where convection is observed. Winds today
across the area will be around 5 knots, becoming northeasterly
during the course of the day./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  93  70  89 /   8  32  12  18
Meridian      70  92  69  89 /  10  34  16  18
Vicksburg     71  92  70  91 /   6  24   9  17
Hattiesburg   69  92  69  89 /  12  33  18  21
Natchez       71  92  69  89 /  12  31  13  18
Greenville    70  93  70  91 /   3   9   4  17
Greenwood     70  93  70  90 /   7  11   4  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3/17



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