Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 250839
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DOTTING SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR MY
SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE THERE WILL
BE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING
SOUTH AND INTO THE REGION.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AGAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS AS THEY WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE
90S TODAY...THEN THE MIDDLE 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND THEN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY NIGHT. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 90S. CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
DRIVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT CUT BELOW
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO BOUNCE
AROUND...IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES...AT A COUPLE OF SITES THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT REMAINING TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SUN RISES AND HEATING COMMENCES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY IN THE
VICINITY OF A FRONT THAT WILL STALL NEAR THERE...KHBG. IF CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ON STATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  67  95  73 /   3   6   4   5
MERIDIAN      91  65  94  72 /   4   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     92  66  94  71 /   2   5   3   6
HATTIESBURG   93  72  94  74 /  22   9   9   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  73 /   8   5   5   6
GREENVILLE    91  67  95  74 /   2   4   3   5
GREENWOOD     91  64  94  73 /   3   4   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/15





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