Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 200004 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
604 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Showers will clear out of the region well before midnight with lower
ceilings (IFR/LIFR) and patchy fog gradually building in all areas
from west to east through the early morning hours. Expect low flight
cats to slowly improve tomorrow morning between 14 and 17 UTC with
some gusty south to southwest winds expected to develop from midday
through afternoon tomorrow. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight and Friday...

Swath of light to moderate rain continues to track across the
ArkLaMiss region this afternoon. This will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon into the early evening before pushing
totally east of the region. This will come as the upper trough will
track northeast of the area and away from the ArkLaMiss. Given the
anomalous moisture in place over the region and the saturated
grounds, will continue with the limited risk for flooding through
the remainder of the afternoon. As the rain clears out later this
evening into tonight, there is good potential for patchy fog to
develop across the area. Some locations will likely see some dense
fog tonight but pinpointing exactly where is a little more
difficult.

Dry weather will occur tomorrow as we will be between today`s system
and the weather system set to move in from the southwest tomorrow
night. Partly sunny skies will help temperatures warm into the lower
to mid 70s. /28/

Friday night through Wednesday night...Another round of convection
will move north over the area Friday night with strong to severe
storms likely. This looks like it will be the first of a couple of
rounds of severe possible for the area this weekend. A surge of 1.3
to 1.5 inch PWATS will push into the southern portions of the area
Friday evening and push north across the area overnight. Initially
most of the storm look like they will be elevated with large hail the
primary concern. All of the models are in good agreement of -4 to -5
showalters, Vertical Totals of 29 to 30 and h700-h500 lapse rates of
at least 7.5 c/km, along with high sig hail values. These values are
very rare for this time of year, indicative of late February or
March. Some Significant hail looks possible, but will hold off on any
mention of this in the HWO for now. The storms may become more
surface based very early on Saturday as low level shear and moisture
increase. Expect an increased risk for damaging winds and tornadoes
generally along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor during this period.

The bulk of the first round of storms will shift east of the area
early on Saturday, but the GFS/NAM develop additional convection
Saturday afternoon/evening, and with steep mid level lapse rates the
large hail threat will continue. It really doesn`t look there will be
much of a break in the shower/thunderstorm activity Saturday night
as the upper low approaches the ArkLaMiss.

Showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible on Sunday as
the upper low passes over the area, and although the severe risk
looks limited, there will be some risk for large hail as mid level
lapse rates will range from 7.0-7.5 c/km. Showers will persist into
Sunday evening before ending overnight with lows falling into the
low/mid 40s.

High pressure will build in on Monday with cooler highs in the low
60s. The surface flow will swing back around to the southeast on
Tuesday with high temperatures climbing back into the mid/upper 60s
under partly cloudy skies. A cold front will swing across the area
on Wednesday which will bring another chance for showers to the
ArkLaMiss./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  75  58  74 /  48  10  68  49
Meridian      58  74  58  75 /  83  19  82  63
Vicksburg     54  74  57  74 /  14   9  62  46
Hattiesburg   59  75  61  76 /  69  19  90  69
Natchez       57  76  59  75 /  10   9  66  47
Greenville    53  70  56  72 /  12   8  48  40
Greenwood     55  73  57  74 /  37   9  55  43

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

BB/28/15


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