Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 261742
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...VERY HOT AND HUMID WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AND I-10 CORRIDOR OF
NORTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AT 15-20
MPH. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE PINNED ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF NE
FL. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER INLAND AREAS
BEHIND AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLC COAST THIS EVENING AND END BY
MIDNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP
MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE W/SW STEERING
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION AND POSSIBLY REACH INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR NEAR OCALA AND
GAINESVILLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY. WSW
STEERING FLOW WILL ADVECT A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTORM
INLAND NEAR CEDAR KEY TOWARD GNV/OCF THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN ADVANCING
TOWARD THE NE FL ATLANTIC COAST WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING FAIRLY SCANT
IN NATURE DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED RAIN
CHANCES LESS THAN 15% OVER SE GA. THE MAIN STORY TOMORROW WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 90 TEMPS ACROSS SE GA AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN OF NE FL. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 DEG RANGE BY
EARLY AFTN. USED THE NAM12 MIXING TOOL FOR DEW PTS WHICH ADVERTISED
VALUES NEAR 70 TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST ZONES DURING MAX HEATING...AND
THE RESULTANT HEAT INDICES REMAIN JUST  BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(108 DEG HEAT INDEX). WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND WILL COMPOSE A GRAPHICAST TO HIGHLIGHT
THE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. SUN NIGHT RAIN
CHANCES FALL TO LESS THAN 10% WITH A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH SW WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE FROM
THE NORTH. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80
UNDER A MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

MON & TUE...THE BEST CHANCES OF LOCAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED THESE TWO DAYS AS A FRONTAL ZONE SAGS
SOUTHWARD OVER S-CENTRAL GA MON AND THEN TOWARD N FL INTO TUE AS
UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE BEST
MOISTURE...FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE OVER SE GA MONDAY
THEN OVER NE FL TUE JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO RAIN CHANCES OVER SE GA MON WITH BELOW CLIMO
OVER NE FL...THEN THE OPPOSITE PATTERN EXPECTED TUE WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES OVER SE AND INCREASED OVER NE FL. SPC CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
A 5% RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SE GA MON AFTN/EVENING WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE MAJOR CONCERNS IN ANY RESULTANT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

MON HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR AGAIN INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 90S COAST WITH NO ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED DUE TO
INCREASED WSW STEERING FLOW. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUE AND A COOLER
NW DRAINAGE FLOW TRAILING THE FROPA OVER GA WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
TOWARD CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S
MON NIGHT...THEN TUE NIGHT TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S OVER INLAND SE TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER SE GA.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WED TRAINING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ONLY A LOW 20-30% RAIN
CHANCE OVER PORTIONS OF NE FL. THU-SAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NNE OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE
EXPECTED. THIS REGIME WILL BRING MORNING/EARLY AFTN TSRA INLAND FROM
THE ATLANTIC...WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING FARTHER INLAND DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO NEAR
CLIMO VALUES BY FRI WITH A DIURNAL TREND. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH A PLUME OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SAT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS
IN PLACE. IF THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT...WE COULD HAVE AN UNSETTLED
WEEKEND NEXT WEEK WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TRAILED BY A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE. STILL UNCERTAINTY...BUT A SCENARIO TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCTD STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z...THEN VCTS SHOULD HANDLE THEM
THROUGH THE 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME. AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH SCATTERED
LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SINCE IT DID
NOT OCCUR AT KGNV/KVQQ THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MAIN IMPACTS THE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS...MAINLY DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  78  95 /   0  10  10  40
SSI  78  93  78  95 /  20  10  10  30
JAX  74  95  76  95 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  76  92  76  93 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  73  94  73  93 /  10  30  10  20
OCF  73  93  73  94 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ENYEDI/WALSH




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.