Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 270120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SLOWLY THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE GULF. WITH LACK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS INTO THE ATLC LATE IN THE DAY.
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OTHERWISE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF FRONT WILL BUILD W/SW WINDS TO 15-20G30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS
WILL PUSH ONLY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRI MORNING LOWS...AND WILL
REACH GENERALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AS RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...WITH LOW IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
10Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 13Z-14Z...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING
AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LEGS. SW/W FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECT THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: BECOMING LOW WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  39  61 /  30  60   0   0
SSI  62  73  44  59 /  60  70  10   0
JAX  64  76  43  63 /  40  70  10   0
SGJ  65  78  45  62 /  30  80  10   0
GNV  65  77  44  66 /  40  80  10   0
OCF  66  78  43  66 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/PETERSON



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