Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 100606
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
206 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE EVENING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA HAS DIMINISHED,,,AND
QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL FOR MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE CROSSING SE GA.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AROUND 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY TO
2 TO 2.2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LIFT...WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS THIS AFTN CLOSER TO A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SE GA...AND WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL RETAIN HIGH END SCATTERED POPS
FOR MOST OF NE FL. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABSENT...DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1-3
DEGREES LOWER TODAY...WITH MAINLY LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER
80S COAST. RESIDUAL SCATTERED/NUMEROUS POPS EARLY IN THE EVENING
WILL DECREASE BY THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES TNGT. FOR FRIDAY...THE TROUGH WILL NUDGE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THE HIGHEST MEAN LAYER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NE FL...THUS WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE
FRIDAY AFTN. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTING MAINLY AFTERNOON
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS.

A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WILL HELP TO INITIATE MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS TODAY. WHILE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...A FEW
EARLIER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KVQQ/KGNV. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD AWAY FROM STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE IS BEGINNING TO LESSEN...WITH BUOY 41008
AT 16G19 KT. WILL LOWER THE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE
NEXT FCST ISSUANCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH INLAND. NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OFFSHORE. SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY/FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
AND WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  92  73 /  60  50  60  40
SSI  88  75  89  76 /  40  40  50  30
JAX  93  73  93  74 /  40  40  60  40
SGJ  89  75  89  75 /  40  30  50  30
GNV  93  71  92  71 /  50  40  60  40
OCF  91  72  91  71 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE






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