Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 301950
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALSO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAINLY NLY TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT WILL ENABLE LOWS TO DROP
OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT TOTALLY GO
CALM...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP TO FREEZING
FOR A SHORT DURATION...LESS THAN 2 HRS...IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS BUT NO FREEZE WARNING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD MORNING START...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCNL PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS PROBABLY MAKING INROADS
TO OUR SE ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. TEMPS WILL A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 TO
OCNL 15 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXIT
TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS INITIAL APPROACH...WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP. AFTER A SEASONABLY
COOL START SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NICELY BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS SE GA...WITH
LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ENTERING SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSSING
NE FL MONDAY MORNING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTN. DEEP
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT PLENTIFUL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NE FL
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AS THE FRONT EXITS. CLOUDS AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR BE FL...AND
AROUND 70 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CHILLY LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 55-60 SE GA TO LOWER/MID 60S NE FL.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES. GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL...WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NWLY WINDS NEAR 10-15G20KT BECOMING NLY AND
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NELY AROUND 10
KT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NWLY WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING DOES SUPPORT SCA CONDS BEYOND ABOUT 40
NM FROM SHORE SO SCA LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW TO N THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. REASONABLY CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THROUGH 12Z SAT. WINDS NELY ON
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD AND OFF THE
COAST BY SAT EVENING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING AND HIGH
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS QUICKLY
ONSHORE AGAIN TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SFC LOW
APPROACH FROM THE W.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/WALSH


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