Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 220546
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME NE FL...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...AND 50 TO 55
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION OF FL. AT THIS POINT...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SYSTEM SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA...SO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE SOUTH...AND COULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FAR SOUTH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...DUE TO FLOW FROM NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND DRIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST...IT
WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND NEAR
TO JUST ABOVE NORMA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SHALLOW MVFR AT VQQ OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH 8-12 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A NE WIND
SURGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL USE CAUTION
FOR THE OUTER LEGS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH SIDESHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  53  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  77  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  77  57  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  80  48  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  82  50  79  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE






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