Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 290732
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
332 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...
.NEAR TERM...Today through Thursday...
This morning...Guidance and dew pt depressions were suggesting
best early morning fog potential across the Suwannee River Valley
of NE FL through sunrise. Very low dispersion and higher low level
RH also favors smoke settling toward the ground early this
morning which will also reduce visibility in locales including
along the I-10 corridor in NE FL.
Today...A diffuse surface front will drift southward and meander
across SE GA today as weak surface high pressure extends an axis
across south FL and another surface ridge builds over the mid-
Atlantic region. The net result is the area will be under a weak
low level pressure pattern with a continuation of above normal
warmth under a gradually weakening mid level ridge across the deep
south. Morning low stratus and fog will burn off by mid-morning
yielding mostly to partly cloudy skies through midday as both sea
breezes develop and press inland. Under light steering flow...the
sea breeze merger late this afternoon/evening will focus across
the mid section of the forecast area. Will continue with low
chances of a few showers or even thunderstorm across SE GA where
the meandering surface trough and deeper mid level moisture will
coincide with sea breeze forcing. Temperatures will rise into the
mid to upper 80s inland (possibly a few 90s) with mid 70s along
the coast thanks to the sea breeze. Near record highs possible
today across parts of inland SE GA.
Tonight...Isolated to scattered evening convection will gradually
fade across inland SE GA through 10 pm with the diffuse surface
front still lingering across the area. Lingering debris clouds
will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with inland fog
development most probable across parts of NE FL. Mild low
temperatures will range in the upper 50s inland to mid 60s coast.
Thu...Upper ridge breaks down and shifts farther east of the
local area which will open up SW steering flow from the Gulf of
Mexico across the local area in the afternoon. Better coverage of
scattered showers and isolated tstorms with the higher values
across SE GA where the low level diffuse front will begin to lift
northward as a warm front and interact with the sea breezes in the
afternoon with rain chances also extending southward over NE Fl
along the sea breezes in the early afternoon and then between the
St Johns River basin and I-75 corridor in the afternoon.
Temperatures will continue above normal but slightly cooler in
most locales compared to today due to increased cloud cover and
falling thicknesses ahead of the next approaching frontal system.
.SHORT TERM...Thursday night through Friday night...Upper trough
will approach the area from the west Thursday night. This will bring
an increase in clouds and showers late Thursday night as a sw flow
increases. Upper trough will push across ne Fl/se GA Friday morning
bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Models differ with
the timing of precip on Friday. GFS/ECMWF models show drying in the
afternoon as a dry slot spreads across the area with trough shifting
east. NAM12 and SREF show afternoon precip over the area but with
loss of upper support would not expect any convection that does
develop to be strong. Will go with consensus and keep chance pops
through the day. Friday night will be dry as a weak cold front
pushes across the area. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...The weekend will be warm
and dry as ridging moves over the se. High temperatures will range
from near 80 degrees at the coast where seabreezes will develop...
to the mid/upper 80s inland. Lows will be in the upper 50s/lower
60s. An upper low over the southern plains will lift ne into the mid-
Atlantic states Monday into Tuesday. A good chance for showers and
thunderstorms will develop on Monday with the possibility of strong
to severe storms Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain
several degrees above normal.
.AVIATION...Continued to advertised IFR conditions at GNV
developing through sunrise. Recent satellite imagery and surface
observations supported recent HRRR/SREF low stratus guidance
drifting inland from the FL Big Bend...with Perry FL recently
reporting 1 1/2 SM visibility. Elsewhere MVFR conditions possible
around sunrise at JAX...VQQ and possibly CRG due to radiational
ground fog. In addition to fog...smoke from widespread fires
across the area will also settle toward the ground early this
morning and could cause local visibility restrictions. Light SSW
winds will prevail this morning with an east coast sea breeze
developing and pushing inland midday. A few showers possible near
SSI this afternoon...but with low confidence (<20%) left out of
TAFs for now with prevailing VFR conditions expected through
sunset under SCT-BKN cumulus field.
.MARINE...Waves continue to subside over the outer waters under
light WSW flow this morning 10 kts or less. Sea breeze will
develop this afternoon along the coast with winds becoming onshore
near shore and light and variable farther offshore. Light onshore
flow develops Thu with speeds increasing to 15-20 kts into Thu
evening as a warm front lifts north of the area and a front
approaches from the west. SSW winds increase to near advisory
levels over the outer waters Fri ahead of the surface cold front
with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds shift NW late Fri into Sat
with offshore flow and lighter winds into the Sat with sea breezes
developing once again each afternoon.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and again Thu due to ESE swells
near 2 ft and periods of 10-11 seconds.
.CLIMATE...Record max temperatures may be challenged across SE GA
both Today and Thu.
SiteMarch 29March 30
GNV 94/1907 94/1907
AMG 86/1998 86/1998
SSI 85/2012 88/1954
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 62 83 65 / 30 30 40 30
SSI 80 65 77 67 / 20 20 20 30
JAX 87 62 84 66 / 20 10 20 20
SGJ 84 65 82 65 / 10 10 20 10
GNV 88 59 86 61 / 10 10 30 20
OCF 88 59 86 62 / 10 10 30 20