Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 040822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
WEAK LOW OFF THE SE GA COAST BEGINS TO PUSH NE. IN ITS WAKE A
WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NW OF THE TROF AXIS EXPECT TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE MID 90S AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER SE GA.
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER GA. IN THE MORNING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROF AXIS
EXTENDING FROM GAINESVILLE NE THROUGH THE JAX METRO AREA. SW FLOW
WILL DOMINATE ALONG THE TROF AXIS AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL FIRE IN THE FL BIG BEND REGION AND PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. TROF AXIS LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG
THE FL/GA BORDER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...BUT
COULD HELP GENERATE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS IN CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-THU)...
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS BOTH NE FL/SE GA
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND AND I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA
WHICH WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS NE FL AND MIDDLE 90S ACRS SE GA AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AMPLIFYING EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL PUSH THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND INTO NE FL/SE GA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS
INCREASING WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 50-70% RANGE AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FASTER
MOVING FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT
SHIFTING TO GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO
VALUES WITH LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. EARLY TSRA/SHRA OVER
GNV. POSSIBLE VCSH IN THE LATE MORNING NEAR THE COASTAL FL
TERMINALS. TRANSITION TO VCTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE
SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONTS APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BRINGS WITH IT A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
SSI  88  77  90  78 /  40  30  30  20
JAX  90  76  92  74 /  50  30  40  20
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
GNV  87  74  91  73 /  50  30  40  20
OCF  87  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/HESS



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