Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 231904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.NEAR TERM (Through Wednesday)...

A cold front will move south of the area this evening. Low clouds
will clear the region from the northwest to southeast by early eve.
Axis of sub-tropical jet just north of the area will bring in high
clouds tonight then thinning out some on Wednesday as the jet axis
moves further south. Surface high pressure builds in across the
lower Miss Valley on Wednesday providing a cool and dry northerly
flow to the area with slightly below normal temps.

.SHORT TERM /through Thursday Night/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night, high pressure builds to the
north of the forecast area, with onshore flow pattern developing. Dry
conditions are expected, along with slightly below normal temperatures.
High temps are expected to be in the upr 50s to lwr 60s Thursday, with
mid 50s immediate coast. Not expecting a freeze Wednesday night but
likely to have areas of frost with lows in mid 30s across inland
se GA and Suwannee Valley Region of northeast Florida, with upr 30s to
lwr 40s elsewhere. Low temps are expected to be a few degrees higher
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Dry conditions continue Friday with weak upper ridge over forecast area.
With surface high moving offshore, some warm-up is expected with high
temperatures in the mid 60s, except upr 60s southern counties and
60-65 east if I-95. Milder night Friday night with low temperatures
in the upr 40s to lwr 50s.

Models remain in decent agreement on Saturday in showing upper ridge
moving east of forecast area. Saturday looks dry with some showers
shown by models over coastal waters. Warming trend continues with
high temperatures in the upr 60s to lwr 70s, except mid 60s coast.
Rising surface dew points will buoy low temps Saturday night,
generally mid to upr 50s.

For run of ECM a little closer to GFS solution though
still a little north with surface low track and slightly stronger
and slower with upper trough compared to GFS.  Both are wet
solutions...with not much instability for t-storms.  At this time,
will maintain high POPs for showers, particularly on Sunday.
Consensus guidance keeping temperatures down a little due to clouds
and precipitation.

Cold front passes Sunday night with clearing from west to east on
Monday. Back to slightly below normal temperatures...with highs
Monday around 60 se GA and along the coast...60-65 across ne FL.


.AVIATION...Low clouds will dissipate the next several hours as
a cold front pushes through the area. Prevailing VFR expected
this evening and overnite.


.MARINE...A cold front will move south of the waters tonight. Winds
will shift into the northwest and north and increase some tonight
behind the front. A brief lull in winds expected for Wednesday...
then stronger onshore flow develops Wed night through Friday with
possible advisory conditions offshore as strong high pressure
builds north of the waters. Winds veer to the southeast and south
and remain elevated over the weekend...with possible advisory
conditions a low pressure system tracks towards the

Rip Currents: Low risk.


AMG  38  59  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  57  39  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  41  62  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  44  60  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  41  63  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  65  38  64 /   0   0   0   0





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