Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 302040
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE N/NE ACROSS GA/AL. INLAND PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY RESTRICTED TO NEAR
THE COAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL TNGT.

MONDAY...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MIGRATING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL WITH
A BIT LESSER COVERAGE FOR INTERIOR SE GA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION BY LATE MON AS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DRY FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON EVENING AS THIS
RIDGING BUILDS IN...WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE TROPICAL FEED OF
MOISTURE TEMPORARILY. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE FOR MON
NIGHT EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH DRYING EXPECTED INLAND. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES...WITH A
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10. LESS COVERAGE AND MORE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
INLAND HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-
10...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...KEEPING THE FLOOD THREAT IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS INTERACTING WITH
THIS BOUNDARY MAY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-
50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON WED WILL GRADUALLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD LATER THIS  WEEK...WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. DEEP S-SW FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION WED/THURS DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE UPPER LOW GETS TO OUR REGION...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE
12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL...WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...SWITCHING OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO E/SE.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FOCUS ACTIVITY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FRI-SUN...WITH MORNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ON WED/THURS WILL COOL BACK TO THE UPPER
80S LATE FRI-SUN. HIGHS AT THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
80S WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND EACH DAY. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN BANDS OF RAIN
FOR SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH MORE LOCALIZED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT GNV. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT SOME LOW CLOUDS LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS CLOSE AND SEAS TOUCHING 7 FEET...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OUTER WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY UNDER PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE FLOW WILL TILT
MORE TO THE SOUTH FOR MID/LATE WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. INITIAL
CONCERNS ARE ALONG FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FORKS OF BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE BASIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER BORDERING WESTERN MARION COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  91 /  30  50  10  30
SSI  76  85  75  88 /  60  60  40  30
JAX  75  88  75  89 /  50  60  30  50
SGJ  75  85  77  87 /  70  70  40  60
GNV  73  87  75  89 /  50  70  20  70
OCF  74  87  74  89 /  50  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-
     INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/COMBS


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