Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 060817
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ON NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER...AND A FEW MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN
FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND SUNRISE...WITH CLIMATE DAY HIGHS HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED.
WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST...GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE.

AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THE
COASTAL TROUGHINESS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. LOWS IN THE COUNTIES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER COULD
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAST THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR...AND WHETHER THE WINDS WILL STAY MIXED. SO HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM....SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SRN FL. MEAN SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS
TRANSLATING TO CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NE. THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL AIRMASS
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. A
FEW LOCATIONS WITH FROST POSSIBLE INLAND SE GA SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE AWAY FROM
THE REGION AS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR S BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MAINLY
SRN AREAS AS A FEW MORE CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE STREAMING IN FROM THE W. SUN NIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP TO CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM WELL BELOW 1 INCH ON
SUNDAY TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES LATE SUN NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
MORE MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NWD...WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU.
WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GOOD WITH MID RANGE SCT POPS BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS
TOO WEAK FOR ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE MOVE NW AND W OF THE AREA THOUGH WARM FRONT
GENERALLY STALLS OVER EXTREME SRN GA WHERE WE PLACE CHANCE POPS
AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN NE FL. TUE AND WED...THE FRONT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN GA AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO OR SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SRN GA TUE BUT UNCERTAIN GROWS WED-
THU WITH MODELS HANDLING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR N.
ECMWF ARGUES FOR DRIER PATTERN AS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD
OUT OF THE GULF FROM LA INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY WHILE GFS BEGINS TO
FOCUS MOISTURE FIELD OVER ERN TX TO SRN GA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
POPS FCST OF 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT...TSTMS REMAIN LOW TUE AND WED AND THUS WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FCST. COOLER AIR REMAINS N OF THE AREA SO A MILD AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING TO VFR TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AS THIS HIGH TRACKS
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD ONSHORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
AREA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  32  65  37 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  48  37  59  43 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  53  37  63  41 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  56  44  62  50 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  57  39  68  43 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  60  44  70  48 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.