Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 280121
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
819 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...LIGHT FREEZE INLAND NE FL TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...COLD HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE MS
AND TN VALLEYS...WITH A NWLY SFC FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE AREA. SKIES
ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL AS FORECAST...IF NOT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MIXING AS
SFC WINDS STAY UP AROUND THE 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE SOME
WIND ALL NIGHT FROM THE NW NEAR 5 MPH OR OCCASIONALLY 10 MPH THAT
WILL HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFECTS BUT MAINTAIN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE 18Z GUIDANCE HAS COOLED MIN TEMPS
ABOUT A DEGREE WHILE SOME HAVE WARMED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHER MIN TEMP
TOOLS SUGGEST LOWS DOWN TO 29 TO AS MUCH AS 37 DEG IN THE FREEZE
WARNING AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE THE FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTIONS OF NE FL BUT ANTICIPATE A SHORTER
DURATION OF ANY FREEZE...DUE TO LOW LEVEL MIXING AFFECTS...TO 3
HOURS OR LESS AND ANTICIPATE COLDEST TEMPS AND ANY FROST IN WIND
PROTECTED LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WINDS
INCREASING TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS NOT FAR FROM COAST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  31  54  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  36  54  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  32  56  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  38  57  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  32  58  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  32  59  36  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/WALKER











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