Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 200232
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1032 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1017 MILLIBARS)
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS SOUTH FL...AND INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH FL AND THE BAHAMAS. STRONG CONVECTION JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR THE OCMULGEE RIVER IN
INTERIOR SOUTH GA FADED QUICKLY AS IT MOVED EASTWARD...WHICH IS A
SIGN OF A MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE FL
PENINSULA. THE EVENING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED A BRISK
WESTERLY WIND FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FORMATION OVER ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CLOSER TO
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING. OPTED TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THESE
AREAS...BUT SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE TOWARDS SUNRISE.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES...WHICH MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS
(108 DEGREES) IN SOME SPOTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S AT THE
COAST. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION...EXPECTING ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES...WHICH SHOULD MERGE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST
FL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT GNV
BASED LATEST GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. ON WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING W
TO NW FLOW EXPECTED AROUND 8 TO 12 KT AND GUSTY AT TIMES. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND AT THIS TIME HAVE
PLACED IN VCTS FOR LATER IN THE DAY AROUND 20Z...WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER CHANCES EXPECTED FOR SSI SO LEFT OUT MENTION OF VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...WHERE THE EVENING WIND SURGE IS PUSHING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 41008 OFFSHORE OF THE GA
COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
THERE WILL BE AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
EACH DAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE EVENING
WIND SURGE ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SPEEDS TO NEAR CAUTION
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  10
SSI  77  93  77  93 /  20  20  20  10
JAX  74  95  76  97 /  10  30  20  10
SGJ  76  92  76  91 /  10  30  30  20
GNV  74  94  74  95 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  73  94  73  94 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/SHASHY/GUILLET





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