Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 300802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
400 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with temperatures averaging in
the upper 70s along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting
isolated showers and thunderstorms, with the majority of the activity along
the Middle Keys and the adjacent nearshore waters. Surface
wise, our region lies between a western atlantic ridge to the north with
another weak area of high pressure in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. On
our marine district, winds are mostly east at 10 knots or less.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday night)...
Over the next several days, a very complex mid and upper level pattern
will prevail with the best large scale lift over the Bahamian chain and
east of the Florida peninsula, with the primary precipitation sources being
cloud line genesis and outflow boundaries emanating off Andros island
and the South Florida peninsula. With that said, dry air below 700 mb
will pose a challenge for wetting cloud lines, subsequently, isolated
20 percent pops will be kept for this time frame. Plenty of insolation will
allow high temperatures to climb into the upper 80s with overnight lows
generally in the upper 70s outside of any downpours.


.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
Little change in the overall synoptic pattern with a very modest
western atlantic surface ridge aligned across the northern portion
of the sunshine state, with a couple of minor low level undulations
migrating westward within an easterly flow. With that said, medium
range guidance has been hinting at the most pronounced low level
disturbance approaching our region late Sunday and Sunday night. For
now, will retain 20 to 30 percent 12 hour pops with daytime
highs in the upper 80s and overnight lows near 80 through the period.


Outside of any isolated showers or thunderstorms, mostly east
winds of 15 knots or less will prevail on all Keys coastal waters for a
good portion of this week, hence, no headlines or advisories will be needed.


Today, VFR conditions expected at both the KEYW & KMTH International
Terminals. Expect variable winds aoa 6 knots or less. Short lived
MVFR cigs aoa FL025-030 will be possible in and near the terminals
on account of the development of an island cumulus cloud line.


In 1960, the daily record rainfall of 7.20 inches was recorded in Key West.
This is also the wettest day ever recorded in May. Rainfall records have been
kept since 1871.


Key West  87  79  87  79 / 20 20 20 20
Marathon  89  79  89  79 / 20 20 20 20





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