Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 301941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
341 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Partly cloudy skies have emerged over the Lower Keys this afternoon
as a cloud line has formed generating some shower activity from
about Cudjoe Key to Key West. Only light accumulations have been
observed, with just under a tenth of an inch at our office in Key
West. Prior to any shower activity, most island location stopped out
near 90 degrees early this afternoon, with dewpoints hovering in the
upper 70`s. Winds have averaged light to gentle out of the east
northeast at both our land and marine observing stations today. Mimic
TPW shows two distinct tropical waves. One currently across the
Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and a more pronounced wave just east of
the Antilles. In between these two features is an area of drier air.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight thru Monday)...The ridge of high pressure over the
Florida Peninsula and South Florida today that has help keep winds
light will drift off to the northwest as a tropical upper
tropospheric trough (TUTT) pushes across the region tonight and
Sunday. Forecast soundings and model guidance agree with increasing
atmospheric moisture and winds for Sunday, thus chose to increase POP`s
slightly. Conditions with dry out briefly Sunday night and early
Monday as the swath of drier air evident on the Mimic spreads across the
region. Have elected to stick with climatology for POP`s on Monday as
the Keys remain in the wake of the exiting tropical wave and another
approaching wave over the eastern Caribbean. Winds are expected to
surge again Monday night ahead of this wave, and an influx of
tropical moisture begins once again.


.LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...Model guidance is in
consensus with another tropical wave approaching the Florida Keys
late Monday night and Tuesday, with the highest rain chances expected
Tuesday through early Wednesday. In the wake of this wave, a ridge of
high pressure builds across the Florida Peninsula through the end of
the week, resulting in lighter winds and drier conditions.


A ridge of high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and
South Florida will drift to the northwest as a tropical wave
approaches the Florida Keys tonight and in to Sunday, increasing
winds and seas across the area. A small craft advisory may be
required Sunday night and Monday in the wake of the aforementioned
wave and ahead of another quickly approaching tropical wave late
Monday night.


Until 00z/31st...VFR conditions are anticipated at the Key West and
Marathon terminals. Mostly east winds of less than 10 knots are


The daily record low temperature for July 30th is 69
degrees, which was recorded in 1890. The last time a temperature
below 70 degrees was observed in Key West was on May 8th 2016, when a
low temperature of 63 degrees was recorded. Temperature records in
Key West date back to 1872.


Key West  80  89  80  89 / 40 40 30 30
Marathon  80  92  81  92 / 40 40 30 30


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Data Collection......DR

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