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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201338
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
938 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH NICE FEATHERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL STATES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME ENERGY LEFT IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING DISCRETE SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES LURKING OVER
THE KEYS AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AS SHOWERS PASS
NEARBY AT THE C-MAN REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE REASONING FOR THIS TROUGH FRACTURE
IS THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND THE MID TO UPPER
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE DRIVING
A MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL WIN THE POWER STRUGGLE
WHILE THE REMAINING TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST LINGERS OVER THE GULF.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE MODIFIED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOLDING ON TO HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOW KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WITH MODERATE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
WILL KEEP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE GULF
MARINE ZONES WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. WILL
UPDATE THE TEXT PRODUCTS SOON TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK WAVES
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION IN THE TROPICS THAT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE KEYS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGHING NEAR THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
AND PRODUCE PERIODS WITH SURGING WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY UNTIL THE EVENING...AND HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY TSTM AT BOTH LOCATIONS ON THAT ACCOUNT.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THE VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...HURRICANE RITA PASSED
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF KEY
WEST PRODUCING STORM TIDE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...FLOODING
MANY STREETS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IN KEY WEST
AS RITA PASSED WAS 995.3 MB / 29.39 INCHES OF MERCURY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 62 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 76 MPH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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