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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271945
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the lower
to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are not
detecting any significant precipitation echoes in our county
warning area. Surface wise, an expansive western Atlantic ridge
axis extends across the Southeast United States and the Florida
peninsula. On our marine district, east to southeast winds vary
between 11 knots at Pulaski Shoal light to 16 knots at Sand Key
light and Molasses Reef light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
With our area lying on the southern half of a deep layered western
Atlantic ridge, large scale mid and upper level descent will
prevail with moisture pretty much confined below 850 mb. However,
a few spells of weak upglide and low level confluence will prompt
predominately isolated 10 to 20 percent pops through the period.
Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs averaging
in the lower to mid 80s and low temperatures generally in the mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Medium range guidance remains in fairly good agreement with
another large region of high pressure bridging over a decaying
cold front over South Florida late Friday, with fresh to strong
northeast to east winds to follow late Friday into this weekend.
With this northeast to east confluent trajectory, low chance pops
will be retained through Sunday before some drier air filters in
thereafter when dime pops will be inserted. Well above average
temperatures Friday will drop to slightly above normal for the
balance of this forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the Florida
Straits and an Exercise Caution Headline will be included for the
rest of Keys Coastal waters tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will
persist Tuesday and Tuesday night before gradually abating
Wednesday and especially Thursday. However, a significant wind
surge is likely to overspread our entire marine district Friday
night into this weekend when a Small Craft Advisory is likely to
be hoisted.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR will continue for EYW & MTH through 28/18z. Gentle to
moderate easterly breezes with gusts near 20 knots will continue
during daylight hours, with gusts dropping out from the forecast
after sunset. Cloud cover will gradually thicken through the period
and may occasionally produce VFR-level ceilings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1989, the daily record low temperature of 46 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  75  83  76  83 / 10 10 10 10
Marathon  76  86  77  87 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......DR

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