Area Forecast Discussion
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141
FXUS62 KKEY 260821
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
421 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly cloudy skies and light northeast to east winds,
temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys.
Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting isolated showers and an
occasional lightning storm across our service area. Surface wise,
a broad subtropical ridge axis extends into the Sunshine State and
well into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in mostly east winds of
around 10 knots except slightly higher on the Straits of Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
No changes in the large scale with a ridge axis aligned across the
extreme south portion of the Florida peninsula, resulting in a
light to gentle easterly flow. Given our position to the ridge
axis, subtle to even stealth undulations accompanied by higher
moisture will migrate through our region. With that said, timing
remains arduous so a stream line 12 hour low chance pop which is
near normal will be retained. Plenty of strong insolation will
allow high temperatures to climb into the lower 90s with low
temperatures generally in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Despite an upper level trough digging down the south Florida
peninsula, the persistent low level ridge will settle across or
even just south of our island chain. This will maintain light and
at times variable winds. Given enough low level moisture, wet
cloud line genesis and possible outflow boundaries emanating off
large surrounding land masses will be the precipitation  sources.
Therefore, low chance 12 hour pops which are a blend of the
ECE/MEX will be kept. Seen no reason to stray from highs in the
lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 80s outside of any
heavy downpours.


&&

.MARINE...
Away from showers, thunderstorms, outflow boundaries and possible
waterspouts, mostly east winds of around 10 knots except slightly
higher on the Straits of Florida will persist today through at
least the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue at EYW & MTH through 27/06z. Vicinity
showers may impact terminals after 26/09z. Sub-VFR conditions may
briefly occur with passing showers. Amendments will be issued as
timing confidence of shower impact increases. Easterly winds near 5
knots will increase to near 8 knots during daylight hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1919, the daily record low temperature of 72 degrees was last
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  82  91  82 / 30 30 30 30
Marathon  93  82  92  82 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN

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