Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 200540
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1140 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Active weather continues tonight across north central Nebraska. Snow
will slowly taper off on Tuesday morning after dropping a fresh coat
of snow across the majority of central and northern Nebraska.

Snow has been falling across portions of northern Nebraska all day
and will continue through tonight. Current model runs show a couple
bands of heavier snow developing tonight. The first band will set up
across portions of the western Sandhills and Pine Ridge region.
Snowfall totals through tonight could total 5 to 7 inches in this
location with locally higher amounts near 8 inches around the
Merriman area. The second band is expected to set up along a line
from Sutherland to Thedford to Springview. Here, snowfall
accumulations are expected to be in the 2 to 4 inch range with
amounts near 5 to 6 inches across northern Brown and Keya Paha
counties. Elsewhere, snow will be light with accumulations in the 1
to 3 inch range with generally lesser amounts across the south.

Area roadways are expected to become snow covered and slippery
tonight, so caution should be used if travel is necessary. In
addition, blowing snow is possible as northerly winds gust to near
20 mph overnight.

In addition to overnight snow, low temperatures tonight will
plummet. Expect lows in the positive single digits with some
locations across northwest Nebraska dropping into the negative
single digits. These cold surface temperatures combined with
moderate winds will produce some dangerous wind chills overnight.
Wind chills will easily be in the negative 15 to negative 20 degree
range across the entire forecast area. The Pine Ridge region could
see wind chills approach 25 below zero.

Snow will slowly slide eastward on Tuesday morning. A few lingering
snow showers will be possible across the northeast portions of the
forecast area (O`Neill area) through noon Tuesday. All snow is
expected to be east of the region by noon. Skies will start to clear
out across the south by afternoon, however, overcast skies will
continue across the north. Afternoon temperatures will remain chilly
with forecasted highs ranging from the single digits across Pine
Ridge to the upper teens south of I-80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

1030 mb arctic high pressure should be located near or over ncntl
Neb Wednesday morning. The high will move from snow-covered MT,
through SD and into ern SD/ncntl Neb. A blend of the models, the
previous forecast and bias corrected guidance suggested sub-zero
lows throughout wrn and ncntl Neb. These numbers were nudged up a
few degrees but still show lows mostly below zero and -17F across
Sheridan county Wednesday morning. This area may need a wind chill
warning. A wind chill advisory may be needed farther east across
ncntl Neb Wednesday morning. These products will be issued once the
ongoing winter weather event exits the region.

The models continue to advertise a broad longwave trof across the
Wrn U.S. this week. As the arctic high pressure system underway
moves east, the models show return moisture ahead of a second weaker
arctic high. The trof and return moisture should be sufficient for a
period snow Thursday. Something similar develops Saturday as
additional energy lifts out through the Central Plains. Temperatures
aloft are cold enough for snow in both situations but not favorable
for snow growth.

Arctic air Wednesday through Friday will keep high temperatures near
or below freezing. A blend of bias corrected guidance suggested
lower temperatures by about 1 to 3 degrees. A modest warming trend
is expected Saturday through Monday. The longwave trof will flatten
and this should draw warmer air off the Rockies into Neb. The model
consensus shows a gradual rise in temperatures at h850mb from -20C
Tuesday to around 0C Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow will be ending at both terminals by around 10z. Snow
intensity breifly became 1/4SM +SN at KLBF, and is currently
improving as the backside of the snow band move east. Additioanl
light snow is still possible. At the KVTN terminal, visibilities
will range from 1 to 3 SM until 10z as the system moves east.
MVFR ceilings will around 2500 feet AGL, will improve to VFR by
12z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ004-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ005>010-022>026-036-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg


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