Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261205

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
705 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had high pressure located
over Oklahoma. Low amplitude ridging extended north into Nebraska.
West of this ridge, west southwesterly flow aloft extended to the
west coast where a closed low was located off the coast of
northern California. North of the ridge, a closed low was located
over northwestern Ontario with a downstream ridge extending from
the Great Lakes north into Quebec. Across the Central Plains
tonight, shortwaves lifted across Nebraska, leading to the
development of showers and thunderstorms with the heaviest rain
located in northeastern Nebraska behind a cold front which
extended from northeast Nebraska into Northwestern Kansas and east
central Colorado. As of 3 AM CDT, moderate rain continued across
far northeastern portions of the forecast area, with isolated
showers noted over portions of north central and southwestern


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Today and Tonight: For today, the before mentioned cold front
will drift south into northern Kansas and east central Nebraska.
For this morning, went ahead and continued low pops from
southwestern into north central Nebraska. This was based on the
presence of weak mid level warm air advection as depicted in the
latest NAM12 solution. Though precipitation is not expected to be
heavy, we could still see some isolated showers with embedded
thunderstorms through midday. More organized showers and
thunderstorms will develop INVOF the cold front later this
afternoon, as stronger mid level waa lifts along the front from
south central into southeastern Nebraska. Weaker waa will be
present across the sern portion of the forecast area, and will
hold onto slight chance pops for the evening hours with dry conds
expected thereafter. As for temperatures, they will be 20 to 25
degrees cooler they yesterday`s highs. With abundant mid and high
level cloudiness expected today, highs will be in the upper 70s to
around 80. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, thanks to drier air
moving into the forecast area overnight. With the cooling temps
and moisture from ongoing rain, there may be an elevated threat
for fog development tonight. For now, decided to hold off on
mention of it as there is no agreement between the GFS and NAM
solns for fog development and there is no signal for fog with the
latest SREF ensemble vis product. Will pass this onto the oncoming
shift to eval.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The large scale pattern favors weak northwest to west flow across
the forecast area late week as a ridge axis shifts east from the
Rockies.  Despite favorable easterly to northeast upslope flow at
the surface, precipitation chances through Friday afternoon are low
owing to benign synoptic scale energy on the QG omega fields. Friday
afternoon/evening the models build surface high pressure over the
Western Great Lakes, which will provide for southeasterly low level
flow and a source of low level moisture.  Friday evening, a
disturbance is shown to top the ridge axis, the models respond by
developing storms over the high plains of western Nebraska and far
eastern Colorado/Wyoming.  The activity looks to stay west, missing
much of the CWA with beneficial rainfall.  CAPE values support
decent rainfall and the possibility of a strong storm or two for out
west and southwest. Temperatures through the work week will be
seasonal or slightly below average with a front to our south and
easterly or northerly winds prevailing. Highs will largely remain in
the 80s with lows in the 60s into next weekend.

The ridge attempts to build once again over the intermountain west
late next weekend providing for weak northwest flow across the
plains.  Being on the "cool-side" of the high, temperatures look to
remain seasonal through the remainder of the extended. The long
range models highlight chances of storms nearly each day this
weekend and next week over the high plains, with some of that
activity spilling onto the plains.  TD/s in the upper 50s to lower
60s with periodic disturbances gives credence to that possibility.
Will leave the FB largely as is.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Areas of low clouds and MVFR ceilings are occurring this morning
across western and north central Nebraska behind a cold front.
These ceilings will lift with VFR expected all areas this
afternoon through tonight. Scattered showers will end this




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Taylor is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.