Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
506 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows few-scattered high clouds across the
southern-third of the forecast area that are exiting. Water vapor
imagery depicts a shortwave trough extending from southern
Saskatchewan to the Pacific Northwest tracking east. Latest
mesoanalysis shows a broad surface low with a central pressure about
986 mb in far western Ontario with a cold front extending westward
across northern ND.

The surface cold front will continue to advance southward today and
should move through the local area by end of today as the surface
low moves east across Ontario. While windy conditions are expected
today with the frontal passage, high temperatures are not expected
to be impacted greatly with well-above seasonable normal highs
expected. Highs forecast in the mid 50s in northeast Panhandle to
mid-upper 60s in the southeast quad, though may need to be adjusted
slightly depending on timing. 850 hPa winds peaking largely 40-50
kts overhead with mean mixed-layer winds generally 30-35 kts.
Current thinking is there is good potential for upper level winds to
mix down with fair agreement among deterministic guidance in BUFKIT.
Greatest likelihood for gusts to approach/reach 40 MPH appears in
north central NEB. Elsewhere, 25-35 MPH gusts appears more likely.
Current thinking with respect to timing for strongest winds is
between 11 AM-3 PM CDT. Otherwise, will have to also deal with some
increased sky cover this afternoon. Of note, some guidance also
indicate some potential for precip this afternoon, especially hi-res
guidance. However, dry lower-levels and large dew point depressions
should limit any precip. As such, no mention at this time.
Thereafter mostly clear skies are anticipated by mid-late evening.
Anticipate good radiational cooling conditions with light winds and
mostly clear skies late tonight. Though lows are expected to still
be mild  20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Saturday and Sunday...A ridge of high pressure will build east
across the inter-mountain west onto the plains late Sunday/Monday
while a lee sfc trough develops.  WAA will work with increasing
westerly to southwest downsloping flow to warm highs from the 50s on
Saturday to near 70 Sunday and especially Monday.  Low temperatures
will be unseasonably warm as well, with readings mainly in the 30s
through Monday morning. The building ridge will promote a period of
benign synoptic energy atop the plains until possibly Tuesday when
the pattern turns southwesterly with the approach of a closed
circulation/trough. The latest models continue to trend south and
still remain at odds with timing of this system, but largely agree
that the best QG omega remains west of the FA with the eventual
deformation targeting areas south as the system moves through mid
week.  Will retain slight chance wording across our south, but those
chances are in question.  On the heals of the closed circulation is
a northern stream open wave set to arrive the later half of next
week.  Moisture will be limited, so POP chances are nil at this
point, but the system will push a re-enforcing cold front across
the plains late Wednesday, which will help temperatures to trend
closer to climo, but at that, still above average.

We continue to monitor the passage of a cold front on Monday for the
possibility of fire headlines.  The models are trending weaker with
the front and wind, plus suggest a later arrival.  IT will be warm
and dry Monday, but with the latest guidance suggesting the front
arriving early to mid evening, concurrent wind/RH RFW criteria is
not anticipated.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 506 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Currently clear skies prevails, except for some high clouds
streaming into far western NE. Windy conditions are expected as a
cold front moves across the area today. Wind gusts up to 25-35
kts are expected late this morning and afternoon. Otherwise, sky
cover increases later on with mid and high clouds expected this
afternoon. Winds will lessen in the early to mid evening with calm
to light winds then expected late tonight. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the TAF period.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
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