Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 292045
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The wrap-around rain and drizzle across Ncntl and Swrn Neb should
slowly move east tonight. The forecast uses the HRRR models and RAP
model. This rain is associated with lower level moisture and support
from the upper low across KS.

Most of the short range models show fog forming across the Sandhills
tonight. The RAP model indicates dry air moving in at the 850-500mb
layer and this would promote radiational cooling given the clearing
skies and light winds that are expected to develop tonight. Areas
east of highway 83 remain in the wrap-around clouds overnight.
Clearing is expected from west to east Thursday afternoon across the
Ncntl Neb.

The forecast uses blended guidance plus bias correction. The wet
ground appears to limit lows tonight to a few degrees above the
straight guidance numbers. Highs Thursday rise into the upper 40s
east to around 60 west where mostly sunny skies are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Friday will be a transition day in between systems, as upper level
ridging briefly builds over the area ahead of the next system that
will dig southeast to near the four corners by Friday evening. By
Friday afternoon clouds will be on the increase, with rain likely
developing across portions of the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska
Friday night. The center of the upper level low pressure system will
very slowly meander it`s way into northern New Mexico Saturday.
Ahead of the system deep southerly flow aloft will draw moisture
northward, with rain once again expected through Saturday from the
western half of Nebraska, southward through Oklahoma and Texas.

Sunday could see a lingering shower or two as the system moves into
the plains from New Mexico and weakens. There is yet another system
that arrives Tuesday into Wednesday, this too appears quite vigorous
with more rain and perhaps some wet snow. All in all beneficial
moisture will continue to accumulate the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Showers will remain in the vicinity of KLBF, KBBW and KONL
through late this afternoon, but thereafter ceilings will
gradually lift into the evening. Dryness in the mid levels may
promote the development of fog at KVTN and other north central
Nebraska terminals overnight as winds go light, but fog should be
absent across southwest Nebraska. Overall forecast confidence is
good due to strong model agreement.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Jacobs



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