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000
FXUS64 KLIX 231816
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
116 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION IN TAFS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS KMCB AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AREAS ALONG I-12/10 AROUND MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOW CIGS IN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY AT SOME AIRPORTS. 22/TD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS BURNED OFF...SO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD START TO FALL IN LINE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. 12Z LIX SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HOWEVER THE RISK OF
WET MICROBURSTS /STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/ TODAY IS LOW. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BE REINFORCED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE MAY WEEKEND
FEATURING COOLER NIGHTS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN A FEW AREAS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.

RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY MID WEEK COULD YIELD VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. 11

AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHUM
WHICH IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD CURVES ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
24-36 HOURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO  THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED HEADLINES IN THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
TO NECESSITATE HEADLINES AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN WATERS. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  65  87  58 /  10  20  10   0
BTR  90  69  89  63 /  10  20  20  10
ASD  89  68  89  61 /  10  20  10   0
MSY  88  72  89  67 /  10  20  20  10
GPT  87  69  89  60 /  10  20  10   0
PQL  89  66  88  58 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$