Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 040057
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

UNFORTUNATELY THE AIR IS BEGINNING TO FEEL MORE MUGGY LIKE IT
SHOULD FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH THE DEWPOINT ABOUT 7 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENING. THERE IS A POCKET OF ELEVATED DRY AIR BETWEEN
10500 AND 19500 FEET THIS EVENING. STILL...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE HAS CLIMBED BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND NOW IS CALCULATED AT
1.63 INCHES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 28 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 47900 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING THAT
LASTED 105 MINUTES BEFORE BURSTING AT A HEIGHT OF 21.1 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 26 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM
THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST
THINKING AND LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST.

MOISTURE HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS IN
AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUMPED ALMOST 10 DEGREES OVER THE
COURSE OF ABOUT AN HOUR AS THE SEA BREEZE PASSED THROUGH. AS OF
3PM DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM 62 DEGREES AT MCB TO 78 DEGREES AT BIX.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SERVE TWO PURPOSES.
FIRST IT WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WARMING OF OVERNIGHT LOWS...
ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. AND SECOND...IT WILL HELP OUR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS WE
REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GOOD NEWS AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT IT DOESN/T CURRENTLY
LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE DEWPOINTS RISE AS HIGH AS WHAT WE SAW IN LATE
JULY. THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING THE
OPPRESSIVE LEVELS WE SAW OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME.

LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
AGAIN FROM THE WEST. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHUT OFF. HOWEVER...IF RIDGING
BUILDS IN STRONGER OR FASTER THAN EXPECTED...WEEKEND POPS MAY BE
TOO HIGH WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT KHUM AND KMSY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT
FOG AT KHUM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN...PROBABILITIES TOO
LOW TO CARRY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE THOSE NEAR LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

MARINE...
BERMUDA UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT WE SHOULD START SEEING THE
USUAL EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF WIND SPEEDS OVER CHANDELEUR AND BRETON
SOUNDS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS COULD GET UP
AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. PATTERN
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  96  74  93 /   0  20  10  30
BTR  75  95  75  94 /  10  20  10  30
ASD  74  94  75  92 /  10  20  10  30
MSY  77  93  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
GPT  76  93  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
PQL  74  93  75  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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