Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 061326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS PRETTY WELL CAPPED WITH THE SURFACE
INVERSION LASTING UNTIL THE 950MB LVL AND THE ML LFC AT 750MB.
THIS WOULD INHIBIT SOME CONVECTION TODAY SINCE THE FORCING THAT
WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY HAS MOVED FURTHER EAST. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
1000+ J/KG AND FCST CAPE IS 2000+ J/KG SO AMPLE BUOYANCY IS STILL
PRESENT. PW AT 1.63IN IS NEAR AVG BUT STILL MOIST. WITH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP NEAR THE FORECASTED HIGH TODAY OF 90F ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE CWA. WINDS ARE
SOUTHERNLY UNTIL 850MB THEN BECOME WESTERLY. WINDS THEN SWITCH
NORTHERNLY ABOVE 300MB.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...CONVECTION DIED OFF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND
WE HAVE BEEN LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
REGION. TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AND SHOULD FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE.

MAIN FCST ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
AT FIRST GLANCE WE SHOULD SEE FAR LESS IN THE WAY OF TSRA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTN. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TODAY WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. MID LVL HGHTS WONT NECESSARILY RISE MUCH AND TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND -9 TO -10C AT H5 BUT MID LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMER...LIGHT...AROUND 5-10KTS. UPPER LVL FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE N AND NNE WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION. ALL OF THIS IS WORKING
AGAINST CONVECTION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH PWS
ABV 1.5 INCHES AND THE NERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL FEEL A LITTLE LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE AND IT IS THAT AREA THAT WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ISLTD CONVECTION.

AS FOR TOMORROW...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY.
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. MID LVL FLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND HGHTS WILL BE AROUND 590-591DM WHILE UPPER
LVL FLOW WILL BE STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NE. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT ISLTD SEABREEZE CONVECTION
ALONG SELA WHERE THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE A SOME OF ITS
IMPACT. /CAB/

LONG TERM...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST THINGS LOOK
MORE TYPICAL FOR SUMMER AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. LOOK FOR THE USUAL DIURNAL SEABREEZE/LAKEBREEZE CONVECTION
WITH ISLTD TO SCT STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND THEN DYING OUT IN
THE EVENING. ONE THINGS TO WATCH...THERE WILL BE A FEW ERLY WAVES
MOVING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND IF THE RIDGE DOES TREND A TAD
NORTH THEN CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FCSTED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S EACH DAY. /CAB/

AVIATION... WILL SEE A LOT LESS ACTIVITY IN THE WAY OF TS
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES WILL RECEIVE A LITTLE RAIN
AND EVEN A TS. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
MISS SOUTHWARD TO GPT. THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER BY THE 12Z TAF
PACK RELEASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINE OF SH/TS
DEVELOP THIS MORNING BEFORE UPDATING GPT. OTHERWISE...NEW...MSY AND
HUM SHOULD BE THE ONLY 3 SITES TO HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A TS.
HDC MAY GET IN ON THIS AS WELL BUT CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LESS TO THE
NORTH. WILL SHOW VCTS IN PREVAILING FOR AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION SETS UP...IT SHOULD LOCK MOISTURE AT THE BL CAUSING A DECK
AT AROUND 500FT. WILL SHOW THIS AS A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD END OF 12Z
PACK. /TE/

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS  MAY MOVE NORTH OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN TODAY BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END ~10KT
2FT. /TE/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  75  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  91  76  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  88  78  89  78 /  20  10  10   0
PQL  89  75  90  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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