Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 072114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
314 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST
FLOW A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED...AS NOTED BY THE LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...AND PW VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES
WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...ONLY A
FEW PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A SURGE OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WILL ALSO INCREASE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW AND THEN PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD
EASILY GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN COLD POOL WILL REALLY TAKE
HOLD TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ON
TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWS IN THE 30S WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HELPING
TO KEEP THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOME INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER TEXAS FINALLY BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND THEN
FURTHER WARM TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN THE 40S.

THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INTERACT WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FORCING AND OVERALL LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND NORTHSHORE...AND HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS. THE FARTHER
WEST IN THE CWA...THE LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN DUE TO THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. CLOSER TO SHORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
WARMER WATERS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS
WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED OFFSHORE FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO SHORE...AND 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO
RESPOND TO THESE STRONG WINDS...WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET
POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND
LAKES.  THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SLOWLY EASE
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS FALLING BACK INTO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY FALLING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FALL TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...MET ON SITE FOR MARDI GRAS SUPPORT IN NEW ORLEANS.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS/GALE WARNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  53  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  56  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  35  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  58  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  38  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ530-532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

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