Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 290948
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PLAQUEMINES PARISH...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE ALABAMA
COAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY HANGING AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH INDICATES THAT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD
BE ARRIVING AT ABOUT THAT SAME TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING ALONG COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...IT
DOES APPEAR LOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES FOR THAT. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS THAN EXPECTED INSOLATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK WILL
SEND A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA TUESDAY. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS. THIS
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND
THURS. COULD SEE FREEZE TEMPS FOR LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MID WEEK AND TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS TO 60 PERCENT ON FRIDAY AND 60-70 PCT FOR SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS LOW LEVELS WARM AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL COOLING TAKES PLACE. A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BUT THATS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AT THIS
TIME TO KNOW WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY. UPPER/SFC LOW PLACEMENT
AMONG OTHER THINGS COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
JUST WANTED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.  CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 300 TO 800
FEET..RESULTING IN LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 15Z.  AFTER 15Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 FEET.
THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z.  HOWEVER...STRATUS
BUILD DOWN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z...AS AN ELEVATED INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.  A RETURN TO IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 300 TO
800 FEET IS EXPECTED BY 03Z. 32

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.  THIS STRONGER NORTHEAST
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS
WILL VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO EASTERN
TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL FURTHER
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.  SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             FLOOD WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  42  55  33 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  57  44  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  61  46  60  35 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  60  49  59  42 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  63  47  60  38 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  63  47  61  35 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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