Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 262006
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
106 PM PDT Mon Sep 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm weather as northern and central
Nevada sits under a ridge of high pressure. This will continue
through Tuesday across Nevada. A weak disturbance could bring
showers back to the southern and east-central parts of the state
Wednesday and Thursday while stronger upper-level trough is
expected to bring increasing cloud cover and opportunities for
precipitation by the end of the week.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Quiet conditions are
expected through the short term period. Strong high pressure will
keep a lid on any chances for precipitation tonight and Tuesday.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s while the lows will dip down
into the 30s and 40s. WInds will remain light during this time.
The ridge axis will begin to move east Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This will allow a return flow from the south, which
will bring some subtropical moisture northward. Right now, have
kept the isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the
afternoon on Wednesday, based on the current trends in the
models. This system does not appear as moist as the last one.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday
A Pacific trough will deepen off the west coast Wednesday and
Thursday. This will help draw up a cutoff low over the Gulf of
California into the Southwest US. This low will bring an increase
of sub- tropical moisture and weak instability, mostly to eastern
half of the state as dry southwest flow ahead of the approaching
Pacific trough will track the cutoff into Utah and keep the
moisture and instability from creeping to far west. By Friday,
the trough will begin to push on shore and strong divergent flow
aloft will bring more showers and thunderstorms...mainly over
eastern NV where enough residual moisture and instability will be
in place behind the departing low. Winds will also strengthen due
to tighter pressure gradient but should remain below advisory
criteria for Friday. High temps will also drop a few degrees as
the heights begin to fall...but will still be above average. For
the weekend...model disagreement becomes slightly more pronounced.
While both the GFS and EC indicate a frontal passage on
Saturday...the timing and strength of the trailing upper-level
trough remains more clouded. The GFS hints at a more flat
progressive trough passage while the EC favors a deeper slower
trough over the Great Basin.
.AVIATION...SKC and VFR conditions for all terminals for the next
.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather
quiet across northern and central Nevada for the next couple of
days. The ridge will move east by late Wednesday, allowing for
some moisture to move north from southern Nevada. It will not be
much and accumulations are expected to be on the light side.
Another system is expected to move into the Pacific northwest on
Friday, bringing an increase in winds. Borderline critical fire
weather are possible in fire zone 467. Winds and RH will be fairly
close and will need to keep an eye on this. Currently, fire zone
467`s fuel status is not currently critical, but this may change
in the coming days.