Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 261139
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
339 AM PST Sun Feb 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will drop through the area late tonight
through Monday morning. Widespread light accumulations of snow are
likely. Drier conditions along with warming temperatures move
into the region for the middle of next week.
.SHORT TERM...Sunday morning through Tuesday. A cold and deep trof
will clip northern Nevada dragging a frontal bndry south through
the CWA. There is enough moisture for a widespread 1 to 3 inches
of snow. Some locations could see locally higher amounts, but
confidence is low on where this may occur. Best guess would be
across northern Humboldt/Elko Counties where the greatest lift is
located and then across central NV from Austin to Ely where
daytime instability may allow for some convective enhancement to
the frontal band. FGEN forcing also looks a little more impressive
along with a general slowing of the bndry in central NV. This
further supports the idea of slightly higher amounts in these
Tuesday. Snow showers will continue with a blustery NW wind. An
embedded impulse will slide through the NW flow and locally
enhance snow showers across NE Nevada. Little impacts are
expected, but a couple inches of snow will be possible in the NW
favored locations and mountain passes/summits.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday. A few lingering
snow showers will diminish across northeastern Nevada Tuesday
night. A prolonged dry period is expected for the later part of
next week as ridging steadily builds across the state. 500 mb
heights of 570 dm are possible across central Nevada by Thursday
with temperatures moderating considerably, 15 to 20 degrees in
some cases, from Wednesday into the weekend. Models show ridge
being pressed southward a bit and a more southerly track to
Pacific Northwest disturbances which could still bring some
moisture into far northern NV by Sunday or Monday of next week.
Winds will be rather benign Wednesday through Friday but could
pick up by next weekend as the polar jet descends southward from
the Pacific Northwest.
.AVIATION...A winter disturbance will bring increasing snow
showers to northwest Nevada by this afternoon, spreading south and
east across the state tonight and Monday. Expect ceilings and
visibility generally VFR but in -SN will drop to MVFR at times.
Winds will be gusty at times today up to 25 kts from the
.HYDROLOGY...The lower Humboldt River reach continues to flood.
The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is in Moderate Flood Stage
and appears to be holding steady. The Humboldt River at Comus is
in moderate flood and seems to be rising slightly at 10.8 feet.
The Saturday morning report from Winnemucca is that the water is
still rising per the staff gauge reading along the Melarkey Street
Bridge...19 feet, 2 inches, a rise of 3 inches from the Friday
morning report. Thus, minor to moderate flooding can be expected
all along the reach from Battle Mountain to the Humboldt/Pershing
County line for another couple days at least.
Additional precip will move through the state tonight through
Monday morning. This will be in the form of snow and not expected
to impact ongoing flooding. Any water ponding from flooding will
likely freeze. Watch for icy/muddy conditions near low water
crossing and across the flood plain.