Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 301000
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LKN CWFA
THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE AXIS CUTS N/S THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA.
SATELLITE ALSO CLEARLY DEFINES A CIRCULATION OUT IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS POORLY
MODELED. A SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD FIELD RIDING OVER THE RIDGE IS
SPREADING INTO OREGON AT THIS HOUR. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW MORE DIGGING WITH THE TROUGH THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST AREAS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIES AND MOVES
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. SOME BREEZY CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 6500
AND 7500 FEET. THE COLD AIR WILL POOL FURTHER WEST IN NEVADA
HOWEVER A SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO IS BEING PLAYED OUT BY
THE NAM MODEL THAT IS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH THIS TIME-FRAME. THE
MAIN ISSUE COULD BE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL NEVADA
AND A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE DRYING DURING THE
DAY AND THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE TO MOVE THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SIMILAR SOUTHERLY EXTENSION THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION
AND THE SREF AND NAM MODELS ARE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS THE GREATEST IMPACT...DUE TO TIMING
DURING THE DAY...WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 600O FEET. HIGHWAY
OVERPASSES SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION OR SLICK CONDITIONS
SATURDAY...AND LAMOILLE WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
LOOMS UPSTREAM AND WILL BRING A STARK CHANGE OF WEATHER TO
NORTHEASTERN NV THIS WEEKEND. AT THE ONSET OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT AN H5 LOW OVER WILDHORSE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF
EXTENDING TO THE BEEHIVE STATE. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT A
TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER. A SECONDARY H5 LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LKN
CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
NORTHERN NV. HOWEVER...THE SECOND LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY
AND IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND. EXPECT A SEVERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HOUR
PERIOD. GUSTS WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER TONOPAH AND ELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...POSES A SMALL
CONCERN. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME OF GUSTINESS TO WARRANT AN
EVENT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSE
TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING....WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457. EXPECT WINDS TO
AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE DANGER OF
FIRE SPREAD IN THE DORMANT FUELS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97



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