Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 290855
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
155 AM PDT Mon Aug 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm through mid week.
Windy afternoons will start Tuesday and will persist during the
workweek. A cooling trend starts about mid week and continues into
the weekend. Spotty thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon
with the greatest chances mainly over eastern Nevada.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Models are currently
agreeing with the location and timing of trough passage with a
late tuesday into wednesday time frame for passage over Nevada.
This may not last as the models have been inconsistent with this
trough as its arrival time approaches so further changes is
likely with newer model runs. Regardless of the trough timing it
should be warm and dry into early Tuesday. Beginning Tuesday
surface gradient tightens causing the winds pick up. Moisture will
return on Tuesday bringing a chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday.
The models seem to be in agreement with the general pattern. The
atmosphere is beginning to shape up like an early Fall pattern as
it becomes more progressive. A low pressure system will be
dropping south from the Aleutian Island area. How deep this system
eventually gets modeled will make a difference in timing, cold air
and winds. There are tropical influxes from the Atlantic and
Pacific realms that will continue to make consistent modeling
difficult in the coming days. There have been some changes over
the past 24 hours. The latest model run indicates a frontal
passage as early as Wednesday.
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Mean low pressure will
move near the Canadian coastline and banded precipitation will
begin to encroach upon Washington and Oregon, just east of the
most significant shortwave. There could be some mountain showers
developing across the Great Basin by Wednesday morning. Low
temperatures will be in the 50s.
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The upper low
pressure system will begin to move ashore in western Canada and
Washington state. The pressure gradient will tighten over the
Great Basin. Winds will increase all around. Models are indicating
a cold front developing. Convection looks to be limited. High
temperatures will be in the 80s. Low temperatures will range from
the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Low pressure will move
across Washington state then lift north, heading into Canada. The
pressure gradient will remain tight over the Great Basin through
Saturday and gusty winds will continue. Mountain showers are
possible each day however models are reluctant to produce any QPF.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 40s.
Saturday night through Sunday. A trough axis associated with
the Canadian low feature will drag through Nevada. There could be
a dry cold front passing through. The models continue to be
lacking QPF during this time frame. High temperatures
will be in the 70s. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s
to the mid 40s.
.AVIATION...VFR condtions is expected at all terminals for the
next 24 hours.
.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry til Tuesday then isolated dry
thunderstorms possible for the rest of the workweek. The main
concern this week will be low RH values coupled with gusty
afternoon winds. Starting tuesday afternoon fire zone 467 will
experience gusty winds that will be in the low 30`s for mph.
however the coverage for the winds is still in question due to
model inconsistencies with handling the timing of a low pressure
system. Future model runs will better show how this system
evolves and determine if a RFW would be necessary. A large low
pressure system will bring further gusty winds for wednesday to
friday across fire zones 454, 455, 457, and 470 which may also
warrant RFW`s if the evolution of the system remains favorable.
Dry isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting on Tuesday
and lasting through the workweek as the low pressure system moves
some moisture into Nevada. The greatest chance for convection
being in central to eastern Nevada.