Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 172100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SPREADING
CLOUDS...RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
MAINLY WHITE PINE AND NYE COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASANT
SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY VISITING NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
DELIVERING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN 2014. AN
INCREASING SW BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ALL VALLEYS WELL
INTO THE 70S, WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS CRACKING 80 DEGREES.

ALTHOUGH THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR CWA AS OF THIS WRITING,
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RACING TOWARD US FROM TWO SEPARATE SOURCES, A
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND A LOW SPINNING IN THE EAST PACIFIC
WEST OF LOS ANGELES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING,
ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE AT THE RUBY DOME, JUST FOR
SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW MILD THIS AIRMASS IS. WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY (WITH A CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF DENIO),
AND ALSO NEAR EUREKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL TEAM UP WITH THIS INSTABILITY TO GENERATE INCREASING RAIN
SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDER, INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE BEST QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY.
VERY MILD TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. NAM/GFS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG A RUBY MTNS/SPRING CREEK-EUREKA-GABBS LINE DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS ON FRIDAY, SO THUNDER MENTION IS WELL-WARRANTED, EVEN DURING
THE RELATIVELY EARLIER HOURS OF THE DAY. AFTER NOON, THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SAG SE OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, WITH DRIER AIR
INVADING NW NEVADA. PAINTED POPS IN THIS FASHION, WITH HUMBOLDT
COUNTY DRY WITH MUCH FEWER CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY GET A LITTLE FEISTY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MOST NOTABLY ELY TO EUREKA TO MANHATTAN.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE IS FURTHER SUPPRESSED SE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED LARGELY TO WHITE PINE AND NYE
COUNTIES, BUT A FEW WILL STILL PROBABLY POP UP ON THE RUBIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IMPORTANT FOR THE OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS AMONG
US. AFTER A MINOR COOLDOWN FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GET A 5-8
DEGREE REBOUND ON SATURDAY, BACK TO THE DELIGHTFUL LOW TO MID 70S.

EASTER SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY EXPECTED, UNDER DRY WEAK NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR NOTHING,
BUT KEPT A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MENTIONED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WHITE PINE COUNTY. MOST AREAS MOSTLY SUNNY, ENJOYING UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S EASTER AFTERNOON.  BT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS LOOKS UNSTABLE OVER NE NV MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TROF ALONG THE WEST
COAST NEGATIVE TILT...COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE HIGH POPS TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD QPF AMOUNTS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE TROF IS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS THAN THE EC AT THIS TIME AS
THE NEGATIVE TILT TROF SHOULD DIG THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.
LOOKS LIKE THE EC KICKS IT EAST TOO FAST. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO HAVE BLENDED MODELS FOR LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND KEEPING THE SOUTH MAINLY DRY.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER KWMC...KEKO...AND KELY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AT KELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





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