Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 260447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1247 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure squeezed across
the lower Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Meanwhile, a secondary
cold front lies across central Illinois and central Indiana, pushing
southeast toward our region. Latest visible satellite imagery
reveals mostly sunny skies across southern Kentucky while a few fair
weather cumulus clouds have developed across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to
lower 80s and combined with dewpoints in the 40s, it is a very
pleasant late June afternoon.

The aforementioned cold front will drop through our area this
afternoon, bringing with it another invigorating, crisp push of
Canadian air for the short term period. As winds subside this
evening and with mostly clear skies, there should be good
radiational cooling conditions and Monday morning temperatures will
be in the 50s. The coolest readings, low 50s, will be found
across the rural areas especially around the Bluegrass region.

For Monday into Tuesday, cyclonic flow aloft will continue the
seasonably cool temperatures across the area. Plan on highs in the
mid to upper 70s Monday. Embedded within the cyclonic flow are a few
impulses that may bring some mid/high level cloudiness at times
during the day. A slightly stronger shortwave trough will drop down
Monday night into Tuesday morning. This feature will be working into
a less than favorable environment with plenty of dry air but there
should be enough forcing for isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm across parts of the area. Overall, rainfall
amounts will be light and spotty so have continued to advertise 20-
40 percent coverage. Lows Monday night will be in the 50s to near 60.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Surface high pressure will dominate the early parts of the long term
period, which will continue the stretch of seasonable temperatures
and lower humidity across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Zonal to weak ridging aloft will develop Wednesday afternoon. As the
surface high departs to the east, southerly return flow will bring
temperatures back up to near normal - mid 80s. Meanwhile, several
waves of low pressure tracking across the Upper Midwest will allow
for deeper mixing locally so afternoon wind gusts will pick up to
around 20-25 mph at times Wednesday and Thursday.

More summer-like weather will develop toward the end of the upcoming
work week as  Gulf moisture is lifted northward. Dewpoints will
creep back up into the 60s and low 70s at times. This environment
will support the chances for showers and storms, especially Friday
onward into next weekend.


.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Mon June 26 2017

VFR conditions expected for at least the next 24 hrs. Light winds
overnight, and perhaps a scattered mid-level deck. WNW winds will
increase by midday, but speeds should be around 10 kt, and we don`t
expect a repeat of Sunday`s gustiness. Light winds again Mon night,
with some lowering of ceilings as a system approaches from the NW,
but any rain chances will hold off beyond the end of the BWG and LEX
TAFs. Low rain chances creep into SDF in the planning period, but
not yet confident enough in operational impact to include anything
worse than borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings.




Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
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