Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 180753
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
253 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Departing upper low promises mostly sunny skies for us today, and
with surface high pressure to our south, we will see a stronger
southerly flow set up as well. Both argue for a warming trend
starting today. We should see highs to near the freezing mark today
and lows tonight10-15 degrees warmer than this morning. The
warming will continue for Friday, as a shortwave ridge moves into
the Midwest, allowing our temperatures to get to near 40 for highs.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

For Saturday, a weak upper low will cross the Deep South,
undercutting our shortwave ridge over the Midwest. A few models hint
at some light precip in a deformation band north of this upper low.
Clouds associated with this feature could temper our warmup a bit,
but we are still looking at 40s for highs. Then by Sunday, we look
to be solidly within the warm sector of our next storm system. Highs
should reach well into the 50s.

Timing for a frontal passage and associated solid rain chances still
looks to be focused on Monday. For this system, we look to have some
pretty impressive wind fields above the surface. However, as usually
is the case this time of year with these systems, instability is the
big question on whether we see any of those winds mix down. Once
that front clears the region, we`ll drop down closer to normal for
highs/lows through midweek.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR weather is expected throughout this TAF period, with clear
skies. Surface high pressure was centered over Arkansas and
Louisiana early this morning, and this will slowly build south on
Thursday. Southwest winds should stay around 3-5 kts overnight, but
valley locations will likely go calm. Southwest sfc winds will
increase to 8-10 kts by midday as the pressure gradient tightens.
Winds will be slightly higher at the northern TAF sites. Wind gusts
to 15-18 kts are possible during the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...EBW



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