Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 300734
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
334 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...Additional Flash Flooding and Severe Weather Possible Today...

The unsettled weather will continue through tonight ahead of a cold
front which will push through tomorrow and bring cooler and drier
weather. For today, the region will remain in the warm sector of a
low pressure system currently centered over northeastern OK. This
low pressure system will track northeast into the upper Midwest by
Monday morning.

Most of the region should remain dry today through at least the
first half of the afternoon. Though a few storms cannot be ruled out
this morning, mainly across southern IN and far west central KY,
coverage should be fairly isolated. This afternoon the region should
become moderately unstable. A shortwave crossing the region this
afternoon and evening should spark convection along and west of I-
65. There looks to then possibly be a break with a second wave of
showers and storms during the evening and overnight hours as the cold
front moves through. Though there is a lot of uncertainty, with
cyclonically curved hodographs and moderate instability and wind
shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Large hail
and damaging winds are the main concerns, though a tornado cannot be
ruled out.

As we go into the overnight hours, soundings become very saturated.
Heavy rain will be a concern again. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch
in place as it is in the area where the most rain fell last night
and soils are very saturated. Will not adjust the timing on it, but
the biggest concern will be this evening into the overnight hours.
Rain should be ending on Monday morning with drier and cooler air
filtering in behind the cold front.

The other concern today will be the potential for some very gusty
winds. With decent mixing and stronger winds aloft, portions of
southwest central Kentucky look to get wind gusts up to around 40
mph this morning through the afternoon hours, so a Wind Advisory
will be issued for that region. Elsewhere, it looks like gusts will
peak a bit below criteria, so will hold off on issuing a Wind
Advisory for these areas for now. For Monday, winds will again be
quite breezy with gusts of 30-35 mph out of the west behind the cold
front.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Quieter weather is in store for Monday night through Tuesday evening
as high pressure builds in and quasi-zonal flow sets up aloft.
Temperatures will be much closer to normal for this time of year.

The dry weather will be short lived, however, as a shortwave
approaches late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing
another round of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. Thereafter
through the end of the week, a trough will develop and deepen across
the eastern CONUS. The models are still struggling even run to run
even in the same model with how this trough will develop and whether
it will become a closed low. Regardless, we look to have rounds of
showers off and on for the end of the week and into the weekend.
Where the cutoff/placement will be for each round of showers is
still in question and will highly depend on the evolution of the
upper level trough. Temperatures will be on the cooler side for the
end of the week with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Convection to the west of the region continues to decrease in
intensity and the majority of guidance suggests that the weather
will remain quiet and dry across the area overnight.  So with that
said, plan on going with VFR conditions at the terminals.  Only
concern overnight will be LLWS as nocturnal low-level jet axis will
be overhead.

For later today, VFR conditions are expected but surface winds will
be gusty out of the south with speeds in the 15-20kt range and gusts
up to 25-27kts at times.  Some scattered convection may develop
during the afternoon, but mid-level capping may be strong enough to
keep things quiet until tomorrow evening as cold front and
associated convection push in from the west.  RIght now, it appears
that best chances of precipitation will be after 01/00Z.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 830 AM EST Fri Apr 28 2017

Temperature and rainfall records for the weekend:

            4/29 Warm L   4/29 Record H   4/30 Warm L  4/30 Record H
Louisville   67 (1951)      89 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1894)
Lexington    67 (1899)      86 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1942)
Bowling G.   67 (1899)      91 (1894)      68 (1899)    92 (1942*)
Frankfort    63 (1899)      89 (1914)      66 (1910)    91 (1942)

            4/29 Rainfall 4/30 Rainfall
Louisville   2.02" (1927)   2.37" (1983)
Lexington    1.31" (2014)   3.21" (1909)
Bowling G.   2.40" (1912)   3.00" (1911)
Frankfort    2.20" (2002)   2.62" (1909)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ023>025-030>033.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023-024-026>028-061>063-
     070>076.

&&

$$

Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation.....MJ
Climate...EER


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