Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 011702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1102 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.DISCUSSION... /issued 241 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold
front currently extends from northeast Illinois through northwest
Arkansas and into central Texas. Some areas of thunderstorms have
developed ahead of the front with some thunderstorms currently
over north central into western Arkansas. Some of these
thunderstorms have been severe and a new Tornado Watch which
should cover most of the forecast area should be issued before 4
AM. As the cold front moves east today thunderstorms will move
through the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the main threats but tornadoes are also possible. Most of the
thunderstorms should be out of the forecast area by this
afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the warm side today with
highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The cold front will be east of the region tonight with high
pressure moving into the central plains. Cooler and drier air will
move into region with lows Thursday morning in the mid to upper
30s. Thursday will be a sunny day as the surface high settles into
Oklahoma. Temperatures will be close to normal levels with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The surface high will be close to
the forecast area Thursday night which will allow temperatures to
drop a little lower than tonight. Lows Friday morning will be in
the low to mid 30s. Friday will be the coolest day of the forecast
period as the high remains just west of the area. Highs on Friday
will be in the low to mid 50s.

By Friday night, the surface high will be east of the region which
will allow winds to shift to the south. This will bring milder air
back into the region so temperatures will not be as chilly
Saturday morning. The warming trend will continue for much of the
weekend as temperatures return to above normal levels. Moisture
will start to return to southern sections of the forecast area by
Sunday with some isolated showers possible.

The chance of rain will increase some on Sunday night as another
cold front will move into the plains. This cold front will move
quickly into Arkansas by Monday morning and through the forecast
area Monday night. This will mean showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front and move through the region
both Monday and Monday night. The cold front should be just south
of the forecast area on Tuesday with some additional thunderstorms
possible. Temperatures should remain above normal for Monday and




18z TAF Set

Showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a cold front through
the early afternoon hours. As a result, KTUP will continue to see
chances for convection through 20Z. Thereafter, all TAF sites
will be VFR. Gusty northwest winds of 10-15 KTS sustained with
gusts to 25 KTS will occur behind the front through 00Z. After
00Z, speeds will begin to diminish. By 4-8 Z, speeds will be 6 KTS
or less.





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