Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 290455
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST. AS OF 8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE WARMED MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 80S. THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
APPROACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT WHILE AN EASTERLY WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
BY SUNRISE. EXPECT MAINLY JUST CLOUDS TO AFFECT THESE AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER THESE PARTICULAR AREAS ON SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TO
CREATE A BROAD UPPER TROF. HOW LONG THIS TROF SITS OVER THE AREA
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE TOTALLY CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z
RUN. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH ON AT LEAST SUNDAY. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS IT IS STILL
LOOKING LIKE SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS THE CWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS AND ERIKA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL. SSE WINDS 3-7 KTS.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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