Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 280818
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ARE NOT
VERY FAR AWAY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING LOWS TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AT THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WIDESPREAD LOW 60S EXPECTED
INCLUDING IN THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONTINUING WHAT HAS
BEEN ONE OF THE COOLER SUMMERS ON RECORD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS
TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...OR GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS OR MORE. WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT NO
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE IN THE WORKS. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST.

THE GFS HAS CHANGED A BIT DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...TRENDING WETTER. HOWEVER IT IS AN OUTLIER AMONG
MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE. EVEN AMONG ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE WETTEST. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN
WAS IN THE FORECAST IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT REMAIN
AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE TAFS AS
CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW FOR OCCURRENCE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
BECOME NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEEDS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS
ON MONDAY WILL CLEAR MONDAY EVENING AS WELL.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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