Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 271454
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
953 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016
Area 12Z RAOBs and SPC mesoanalysis show that tropical moisture is
in place over the Mid-South, with 2+ inch precip water over the
area. Weak upper low moving north along the MS river delta,
with SHRA/a few TSRA working into our northern MS counties.
Temps are running a bit above current forecast. If 15Z temps
continue the trend, will bump up max temps a couple of degrees to
account for more warming before clouds/SHRA/TSRA move in. Current
forecast POP trend looks good so no other changes planned.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/
An active weather pattern will set up over the Mid-South today
and will continue through at least the early part of the weekend.
Today, a weak upper level low will move into Northwest Mississippi
and will dissolve over the area by Thursday. Best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will occur over the Delta. The
convection will start developing after sunrise and will increase
in coverage by the afternoon hours. The convection and abundant
cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Some storms could produce localized heavy rainfall which could
lead to flash flooding.
For Thursday into at least the early part of the weekend, a broad
upper trough will move in over the region. Several shortwaves will
move through the trough setting off waves of shower and
thunderstorm activity. For Thursday, best chances for convection
will occur across Northeast Mississippi and areas of West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Beyond Thursday, trying to
pinpoint the timing of the shortwaves triggering the waves of
convection is harder to do. Regardless, higher chances for rain
will occur through the period. The convection and cloud cover will
keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s though the period.
Localized heavy rainfall will remain a threat through the period.
By the latter part of the weekend into Monday, the upper trough
will begin shifting east. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will decrease from west to east. Temperatures will begin to
rebound into the lower 90s especially by Monday as an upper ridge
begins to build into the area.
The ridge will strengthen over the area on Tuesday. Expect
convection chances to become more diurnally based and more
isolated in coverage. Would not be surprised to see highs creep
back into the mid 90s in a few locations.
12Z TAF package
Low stratus continues to move north across north MS, moving into
portions of southwest TN through mid-morning. This will result in
MVFR ceilings, mainly south and east of KMEM. However, we may see a
few hours of broken MVFR ceilings at KMEM this morning. Ceilings
will gradually improve this morning, but convection will increase
across the Mid-South. This will result in occasional thunderstorms,
especially this afternoon. Tempo groups were included at all
terminals. Convection is likely again overnight, but timing and
spatial uncertainties do not warrant any more than VCTS at this
time. Low clouds are expected to develop areawide tonight.