Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 030528
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016
Updated for aviation discussion
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/
Abundant high clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South this
evening ahead of a developing low pressure system over South Texas.
Rain from the system will begin moving into the area after sunrise.
Current forecast looks good. Will only update to remove evening
DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/
Skies remain sunny over much of the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. High pressure is
centered over northeast Alabama this afternoon. This high will
keep the region dry tonight. Moisture is slowly moving into the
region from the southwest. As clouds start to increase tonight,
temperatures will not cool off as much as last night with lows
Saturday morning from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Moisture will continue to increase over the weekend which will
result in rain starting to fall beginning Saturday morning and
continuing through Sunday. Temperatures will be on the cool side
both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
By Monday morning, low pressure will be centered over the upper
Texas Gulf coast and move northeast. As the low moves north a warm
front will move through Mississippi and Alabama. This low will
produce showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night.
Depending how far north the warm front moves north, there could be
some strong or possibly severe thunderstorms south of the warm
front. At this point, the severe weather threat should remain
south of the forecast area. By Tuesday, The surface low will be
east of the forecast area with rain ending in the morning. High
pressure will briefly build in bringing a brief period of dry
weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday.
This front will bring some rain ahead of it for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Models are not in good agreement on the timing of
this front and more importantly when colder air will move into the
region behind the front. If the front moves through quicker, the
rain should end sooner and the colder air will move in quicker. If
the front takes longer to move through, the rain may last in
Thursday morning as temperatures will be warmer as well.
High pressure will eventually build over the western U.S. will
bring dry weather and colder temperatures to the region for
Thursday night and next Friday.
Clouds will be increasing overnight with flight conditions
gradually deteriorating on Saturday as rain spreads across the
area. MVFR cigs and vsbys will spread from west to east from about
03/21z-03/23z with IFR conds developing areawide after 04/00z.
Expect E/ENE winds 5-8 kts through the period.