Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 062038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALTO CU AND CIRRUS
EXITING AROUND 00Z...BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 07/15Z...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HOU AND NEW.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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