Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 172348 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
548 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front
over portions of Central/Southern Mississippi and Northern
Alabama. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate the back edge of a
band of rain was located east of a line from Decaturville to
Bolivar Tennessee to Clarksdale, Mississippi. As of 2 PM CST,
temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 40s at most locations
with the exception of Monroe County, Mississippi where
temperatures are still in the lower to middle 50s.

Rain will gradually taper off across the Mid-South for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. A combination of
residual low level moisture and temperatures falling back into
the upper 30s to lower 40s may result in the development of patchy
fog overnight. Highs on Sunday will remain cool in the 50s.

Short term models indicate the downstream cold front will begin to
return back north as a warm front on Sunday with rain chances
increasing especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. It
appears there may be some potential for relatively rain free
conditions across portions of the Mid-South with the exception of
Northeast Arkansas Monday into Monday night. Highs on Monday are
expected to rise back into the lower to middle 70s.

Long term models indicate chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms will return to the Mid-South for Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Mild temperatures are expected to persist into Tuesday but
gradually cool for the middle of next week north of I-40.
Temperatures will moderate slightly for the remainder of next week
along with continued rain chances each day.



00Z TAFs

Expect a gradual improvement in flight categories from west to
east this evening, behind exiting rain system. Pressure gradient
and wind speeds in the FL010 to to FL050 layer should keep erosion
of these lower clouds on track into the early overnight. This
dry air mixing process will weaken later in the overnight,
perhaps too soon to bring VFR to TUP.

The weakening low level winds and at least partial exit of MVFR
deck will lead to ground fog or elevated stratus potential toward
12z. Mitigating factor for IFR stratus at MEM will be urban heat
island and for everywhere else, overlying cirrostratus from the
subtropical upper jet. VFR should prevail by midmorning Sunday,
before MVFR clouds and scattered showers return Sunday afternoon.




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