Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 191130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
19/14Z...AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN
19/08-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CRITTENDEN-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHESTER-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$







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