Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 222113
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
313 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast is still on track for Wednesday with an initial wave of
thunderstorms this evening/overnight followed by widespread
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in eastern Oregon this afternoon and will make its way
into north central Idaho this evening and spread northward
overnight. An upper level jet streak moving into central Idaho
tonight will provide additional support for nocturnal convection.
Main threats with the overnight thunderstorms will be heavy rain,
gusty winds and small hail.

A brief break in thunderstorms is expected by late morning
Wednesday as drier air aloft moves in. This break will be short
lived as the approaching upper level low pumps moisture into the
region. Warm surface temperatures combined with the intense
shortwave trough will provide favorable conditions for widespread
thunderstorm development and isolated severe storms. Thunderstorms
are expected to start developing early afternoon along the Idaho
Panhandle with the threat of thunderstorms propagating eastward
throughout the afternoon. The area most favorable for severe
storms Wednesday afternoon looks to be in west central Montana and
northwest Montana. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be capable
of producing damaging wind gusts, quarter size hail, and lightning.
Due to the high amount of available moisture, any thunderstorm
will bring a threat for flash flooding on recent burn scars.

A powerful cold front for July is forecast to pass Wednesday night
bringing windy and cool conditions on Thursday. As the front
passes, snow levels will drop to around 7000 ft and light snow
will be possible at higher peaks in Glacier National Park on
Thursday morning. Logan Pass will also see blustery conditions
with 60 mph wind gusts throughout the day Thursday. Windy
conditions will also be present at area lakes and valleys with
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph gusting to 30+ mph. A lake wind
advisory may need to be issued for Thursday. Stay tuned for more
updates.

Friday through early next week...High pressure returns to the
region. Temperatures will warm each day with very dry conditions.
Models are indicating a return to highs in the mid 90s by Sunday
through next Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
across the region. KBTM and KSMN are the terminals likely to be
impacted by possible gusty winds and heavy rain from a passing
storm. Expect scattered showers and storms to persist through the
evening and possible overnight hours. After a brief break in the
action tomorrow morning strong storms are expected to impact KGPI
and KMSO after 23/1800z ahead of an approaching cold front. Hail and
gusty winds are expected with strong storms tomorrow.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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