Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 252042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
242 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...A back door cold front will be moving into northwest
Montana late this afternoon through the evening. This front will
primarily cause gusty north to northeasterly winds across the
area. The highest wind gusts appear to be near Badrock Canyon
with gusts up to 40 mph. These gusty northerly winds will create
choppy conditions on area lakes, including Lake McDonald and
Flathead Lake. The precipitation associated with the front appears
to be confined to the Glacier Park region. Stronger storms could
producing moderate to heavy rain which could impact the Going-to-
the-Sun road.

Northerly flow remains over the Northern Rockies on Friday keeping
temperatures relatively cool for this time of year. A few showers
are anticipated to linger along the Continental Divide.

The flow aloft will turn more westerly Saturday into Sunday,
allowing for warming temperatures and breezy conditions. This may
increase fire danger across the area, but otherwise, expect summer
like conditions. A few showers will be possible Sunday afternoon
across northwest Montana, but largely things will be dry.

Southwest flow is expected early next week, which will fully
return hot summer like conditions to the region. Temperatures will
run several degrees above normal with the threat of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday. Breezy
conditions will also prevail during this time frame. Significant
disagreement exists in the forecast models past Wednesday with
regards to a strengthening trough of low pressure and whether it
digs along the west coast or progresses through the northern
Rockies. Stay tuned for further details.


.AVIATION...A Canadian cold front will sweep through northwest
Montana late this afternoon and evening. A shift to northeast is
expected as the front passes, and could become gusty at times
this evening up to 25 kts. Stronger winds will be possible through
favored channeled terrain features, such as Badrock Canyon. KGPI
should expect the wind shift to occur around 26/0000z.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and behind this front, mainly across northwest Montana, and
could impact KGPI with lightning and brief heavy rain. The
thunderstorm threat should largely end by 26/0400z. KMSO will
likely see a shift to more northerly winds around 26/0300z.
Otherwise, relatively benign weather is expected across central
Idaho and southwest Montana.



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