Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 040430
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA
DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

PCPN CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REVOLVING AROUND SFC BNDRY
MOVEMENT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WITH SERIES OF VORT MAXES
LENDING SUPPORT. POP FCST THIS FCST ISSUANCE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AT
THIS POINT GIVEN VARIANCE QPF FIELD AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS TO
EVENTUAL AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT OF PCPN. THE NAM12/GFS20 BOTH FAVORING
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF ACCUM...ONE OVER ERN SD AND THE OTHER OVER
ERN KS/MO. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECM/CMC BOTH LAY BULK OF PCPN
MAINLY OVER ERN KS INTO MO. NOTE...THE ECM IS SHOWING A SECONDARY
AXIS OF APPRECIABLE ACCUM OCCURRING OVER CNTRL NEB.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF OVER MT/WY AT
06Z LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/DPVA INDUCING
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. PCPN PROGGED TO BREAK OUT
THEN ALONG WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM ABOUT WRN SD TO NRN MO.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOISTURE RICH WITH PWS VALUES AROUND 1.5".
GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF LIFTING BNDRY COUPLED WITH STRONG 325K
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HVY RAINFALL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA. ON TUES MODELS
PROG SECOND AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER KS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT. TUES NIGHT/WED PCPN PROGGED TO EXPAND
NWD AND ENCROACH THE CWA. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WILL A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS PERSIST SHOWING A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PREVAILING ACROSS
THE CONUS. PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED PDS INVOLVE A PASSING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING WARM
FRONT/MOIST 315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTN HIGHS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 06Z-12Z FOR KOFK AND KLNK
WITH 850MB FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT


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