Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 300528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada through Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend will be showery with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday: Another in a series of quick-moving warm
fronts will lift NE across Ern Wa overnight, then into BC Monday
morning. Though there`s fairly deep isentropic ascent over this
boundary, the column is rather dry which may explain the lack of
pcpn generated by model guidance overnight. Again, only light
amnts of rain and high mountain snow is expected...and limited to
areas close the BC border. Once this waves moves into BC, rising
heights aloft and a surge of warm air works its way into Ern Wa on
southerly winds to produce a dry and warmer fcst under mostly sunny
skies. High temps will be around 10F above normal. bz

Monday Night through Wednesday: Beginning late Monday, early
Tuesday, the ridge begins to breakdown as a cold front begins to
press into the region. This is expected to bring rain showers for
most populated locations in the region. Snow levels will be above
4500 feet. A combination of the cooler air aloft, orographic lift,
and diurnal surface heating could produce an isolated thunderstorm
in Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle region with the best
chances being along the Canadian Border. The winds behind the
front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts
near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin. Temperatures are
expected to be near the season normals for this time of year. The
winds will begin draw down on Wednesday as the gradient loosens
across the region. Lingering mountains will drop some rain, snow
mix as the snow levels drop to around 2500 feet behind the cold
front. Any accumulations will be small and short lived. /JDC

Wednesday night through Sunday...A cold upper trough will start to
migrate east of the forecast area Wednesday night. Instability
showers will diminish overnight. If there is adequate clearing
overnight, Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 20s
for the northern valleys. Lingering upslope showers will be
invigorated by steepening lapse rates during daytime heating
Thursday. The convective nature of showers will allow snow to
reach some valley floors but any accumulating snow will quickly
melt once showers move on. The trough axis will swing east into
Montana and temporary ridging will set up Thursday night into
Friday but models disagree on the amplitude and staying power of
the ridge. A weak frontal system will affect the forecast area
late in the workweek or early in the weekend but the most
significant weather feature will be a cold upper trough that
descends south from the Gulf of Alaska. The precise track of the
low pressure center will determine just how cold and unsettled it
will be for the weekend into the start of next week. The best bet
for precipitation will be across the northern mountains during
peak daytime heating as convective showers blossom in the unstable
conditions. Temperatures will continue to trend just on the cool
side of climatology. Again, any clearing overnight will make for a
chilly start in the mornings. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high clouds are expected across the region
tonight as a warm front moved through with some thinning of these
clouds on Monday as the warm front lifted north of the area.
Monday night elevated instability will increase from the Blue
Mountains to the Central Panhandle Mountains ahead of cold front
moving onto the WA/OR coast in the evening. NAM and ECMWF show
elevated convection possibly developing near 06z Tuesday right at
the end of the current TAF period around KLWS/KPUW. VFR
conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through 06z
Tuesday. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  64  42  55  33  51 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  66  41  53  32  49 /   0   0  10  70  40  40
Pullman        42  66  43  52  34  49 /   0   0  20  60  20  30
Lewiston       43  72  46  56  36  54 /   0   0  10  60  20  30
Colville       41  67  41  56  32  53 /  10   0  10  70  20  40
Sandpoint      38  62  38  51  32  49 /  10   0  10  70  50  50
Kellogg        38  63  40  47  32  45 /   0   0  20  80  50  50
Moses Lake     40  69  44  59  33  58 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Wenatchee      44  69  45  56  38  56 /   0   0  10  30   0  20
Omak           39  68  41  60  33  57 /  10   0  10  40  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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