Area Forecast Discussion
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589
FXUS61 KPBZ 301135
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary may generate scattered thunderstorms over
the ridges this afternoon. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm
weather can be expected into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes were needed for the post dawn update.

A weak frontal boundary will slide across the Upper Ohio Region
today and slight to chance precipitation probabilities were
maintained for that passage.

The front will usher in slightly lower dew points with insolation
supporting max temperatures about 5 degrees above average. A
clear night with average low temperature is forecast with building
high pressure tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into
Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again.
Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and
associated cold front approaching late Wednesday night and
crossing the region Thursday. Precipitation probabilities were
gradually escalated for that occurrence and accompanied by an
above average temperature forecast given the warm, moist advection
in advance of that feature.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage
through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some
upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus
suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as
a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are
progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the
uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and
temperatures at or below superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Building high pressure will ensure general vfr with exceptions for
peri-dawn fog, and some scattered showers and storms in vicinity
of LBE and MGW as a weak front completes passage this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
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