Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 171933
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
233 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
While a cold front crossing the region will bring
temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday, the entire 7 day
forecast period will have above normal temperatures. The next
time for widespread rain will be Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front is currently in progress moving across the
region with a line of heavier showers shifting from west to east
across the northern half of the forecast area. Rain will also
continue across areas near Morgantown during the afternoon.
Although conditions will temporarily dry out during the evening,
an upper low will race across Ohio and Pennsylvania around
sunrise. Have stuck with chance pops for that time period so far.
Cannot rule out a lingering shower into Wednesday afternoon, but
the bulk of any rain that develops will have moved east by then.
Tonight`s low temperatures will actually remain slightly above
normal high temperatures for mid January, with only a minimal
rise in values on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move into the region from the southwest and
allow for dry weather Wednesday night and Thursday before another
low pressure system brings precipitation late Thursday night
through Friday evening. While precipitation may start as snow
from Pittsburgh north, current forecast keeps any accumulation
less than an inch. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Saturday
and slowly move up the East Coast through the extended forecast
period. This system should bring rain to the region by Sunday and
keep rain in the forecast through the rest of the forecast. Warm
weather will continue, with temperatures between 10-15 degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restrictions are likely through the day as a frontal system
continues to migrate across the region. Precipitation will be
widely scattered outside of the vicinity of the crossing cold
front and have timed frontal passage of TAFs based on latest radar
trends and guidance. Lower cigs and rain chances will return early
in the morning as the parent upper trough moves overhead. Not much
improvement expected during the day on Wednesday with plenty of
low level moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion.
Conditions may improve by late afternoon as the boundary layer
depth decreases.

The LLWS threat will lessen tonight as winds decrease above the
inversion.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low
pressure. Thereafter, expect general VFR until the next system
moves in on Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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