Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 051806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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