Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SO FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX
OF A BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TO SAG TOWARD THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEARING BY MORNING.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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