Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POOR MIXING CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR
PERVASIVE STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER THAN
IN THE EASTERNMOST REACHES WHERE RAIN WAS AT A PREMIUM LAST
EVENING. WITH LITTLE IMPETUS FOR VERTICAL MIXING...IT SEEMS LIKELY
FOG/STRATUS WILL HAVE TO MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES. AS A
RESULT...SLOW BREAKUP IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST AND
NORTH TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FORMATION OF CUMULUS SUBSEQUENT TO ANY
BREAKUP OF LOW CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY. AS SUCH...NO LOCATION SHOULD
REMAIN OR BECOME TOTALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING
DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED
INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH
INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE
FROPA.

UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE
FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT
IS PROGGED.

ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE
WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER MOST THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT FROM THE EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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