Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301458
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DIMINISH THE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A DRY SATURDAY BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A GRADUAL DCRS IN SNW SHWR COVG IS EXPD THRU THE AFTN AS AN UPR
TROF EXITS AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH DCRS. THE EXCEPTION WL BE IN THE
RIDGES SE OF PIT WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTUR IN THE SNW GROWTH
RGN WL CONT ACCUMULATING SNW THRU THE AFTN. WITH COLD
ADVCTN...FALLING TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER SNOW
PRODUCING STORM SUNDAY. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE VARIED GREATLY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SO THERE STILL IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL BE THE
FINAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE 21Z SREF SOLUTION
AS IT SEEMS TO BE A NICE MIX OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS. IF THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK COMES TO FRUITION...HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD...WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHWRS WL CONT THIS MRNG. GENL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN WITH DIMINISHED SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY...AND BY TNGT FOR THE MVFR STRATOCU AS DRY ADVCTN AND
SBSDNC INCRS.

SFC WIND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE W AND NW AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-016-023-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






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