Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 221839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
139 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

There will be a slight chance of light showers early this
afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses the area. Warm weather
is expected to continue until the passage of a late Friday night
and Saturday morning cold front.


Made adjustments to PoPs based on current radar and hi-res
model trends. This led to an increase across the north where a
cluster of showers was moving across northern Ohio. Minor tweaks
to hourly temp/dewpoint otherwise. Showers should mostly
dissipate during the afternoon with dry weather anticipated
thereafter through most of tonight. A few showers may pop up
again across the south towards morning in increasing isentropic

Overall temperatures will be similar to recent days despite
starting off with warmer lows with increased cloud coverage and
slightly cooler temperatures aloft.


The longwave pattern will become more amplified through the
period with a surface low over the plains tracking northeast
across the great lakes. On Thursday warm air and moisture
advection will increase as troughing over the central CONUS
deepens. There will be a chance of showers and possibly a storm
or two with ample synoptic lift, however, did not include in the
forecast with a very slim CAPE profile and a better chance that
activity remains capped off by warmer air aloft. Temperatures
will be around 5 degrees or so warmer on average with increased
warm air advection. Latest consensus in for the warm front to
lift north across the region Friday morning. Friday should
largely be dry most of the day in the warm sector and
precipitation focused along and north of the boundary. Latest
guidance remains consistent with previous runs in forecast
record temperatures across the region.

Minimal change was need to the temperature forecast through the
period...with only minor adjustments made based off latest
bias-corrected guidance.

Friday night temperatures will be very mild with cloud coverage
and increasing winds ahead of the approaching front keep in the
lower levels mixed. Record high mins are currently forecast.
Latest timing for cold frontal passage is Saturday morning.
Expect areawide rain and possibly a few thunderstorms as well
with gusty winds being the primary concern in the high shear low
cape environment.


Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage
Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely
be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model
guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on
Monday before having surprising good agreement on Wednesday.
Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the
forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday,
high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s
once again a possibility by the first day of March.


Although most locations have VFR conditions, some IFR ceilings
have bled into ZZV/FKL from the west, where most upstream
locations across Ohio and Indiana have IFR/LIFR readings.
Decided to go more pessimistic with the forecast, keeping only a
short period of VFR conditions through the afternoon and
bringing conditions more quickly late this afternoon and evening
compared to the 12Z TAFs. Made little to no changes after
sunset, keeping all locations under restrictions into Thursday.

Light w-sw wind will continue through the period.

The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with the
passage of a Friday night/early Saturday cold front.


Record high temperatures for climate sites:

            Wed            Thu            Fri
          ---------      --------        --------
PIT       70 (1922,30)   70 (1922)       70 (1875,1906)
ZZV       67 (1992)      64 (2000)       70 (1961)
MGW       70 (1980)      68 (1996)       75 (1975)
DUJ       60 (1983)      63 (1985)       60 (1985)
HLG       57 (1949)      62 (2000)       63 (2016)
PHD       73 (1997)      69 (1975)       66 (1985)




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