Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PA MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SMALL CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS AND
HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE AT 09Z AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS REGION
TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...STRAY SHOWERS...AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S. COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INOT THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THIS AREA AND DOWN THE RIDGES LOWS INOT
THE MID 30S...WITH LOCALLY IN THE LOWERS 30S IN ELEVATED RIDGE
VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED AND FROST ADVISORY ISSUED.
PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA TO MORGANTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DEW POINTS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. NEW MODELS TRENDING BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH INTO
NEW YORK STATE MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED FOR A LATE WEEK PASSAGE WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP.
USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN VFR ALTOCU...CU
AND A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. CLEARING
SKIES AND GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ001-002-023-041.

&&

$$


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