Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT, THEN SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO BE
IN THE 20S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 400 AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 OR 6 FEET OFF THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE ADVERTISED FOR THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND
4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA


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