Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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257
FXUS65 KPSR 120929
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. SOME RELIEF FROM THE WARM CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&



.DISCUSSION...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOW SHIFTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
500MB HEIGHTS OF 582-585DM TODAY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY...WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD AND THE LARGE SCALE
RIDGE QUICKLY FLATTENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BREAK A
RECORD AT PHOENIX...BUT LIKELY FALL SHORT AT YUMA. THOUGH HEIGHTS
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15-18C...OR NEAR
RECORDS. WE SHOULD LOSE A DEGREE ON OUR HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S ARE AT OR NEAR RECORDS
FOR PHOENIX.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REBUILD THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE NEAR OR
RECORD HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GAINING A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS EASILY REACHING
UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH AGAIN SHOULD BREAK
SOME RECORDS ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD GET SOME MINOR RELIEF LATER
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKENING TROUGH IS SHOWN TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS SHOULD BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DROPPING OUR TEMPERATURES WELL
OUT OF RECORD TERRITORY...BUT LIKELY STILL NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS FOR NEXT FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM AND FOR NOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A VERY WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF
WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS ACROSS
ALL DISTRICTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/

FRI FEB 12     88 | 84 /1988/      |   87 | 87 /1957/
SAT FEB 13     87 | 88 /1957/      |   87 | 93 /1957/
SUN FEB 14     86 | 85 /2014/      |   87 | 94 /1957/
MON FEB 15     86 | 86 /2014/      |   85 | 89 /2014/
TUE FEB 16     88 | 84 /2014/      |   87 | 88 /1981/
WED FEB 17     89 | 88 /2014/      |   87 | 88 /2014/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS



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