Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 191851
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OWING TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVENTUAL
ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. A STEADY NELY WIND OF 4 TO
5 KTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO
LIFT NE. IMPACTS FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING
ON FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD MAINTAIN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS
OUT WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. FIRST...TO THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST THINKING
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAKE ON ANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT ALL THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MEANS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. AFTER PEAK HEATING...THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STEADY 4 TO 5KT NELY WIND
SHOULD DETER ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL


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