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000
FXUS62 KRAH 092337
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
737 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND BENEATH DRY WNW
FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OVER THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SUNDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RACE EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT LEAVE
BEHIND A TRAILING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A PRECEDING BAND OF
ALTOCUMULUS AND VIRGA ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 64 THIS MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CEILINGS IN THE 8 TO 12 THOUSAND FT RANGE...WILL
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
CIRRUS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE IN WEST TO WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AS
THE SHEAR AXIS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE VA BORDER AT 14Z...AND THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WEAK FEATURE TODAY WILL CAUSE INITIALLY LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS THIS MORNING TO VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY...STILL LIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE 6-12 KT RANGE...THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY PROJECTED AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES 5-10 METERS LOWER THAN SATURDAY...SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE
63 TO TO 68 DEGREE RANGE - WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES OR SO SOUTH...LOOK GOOD.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
(COURTESY OF LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE AREA)...TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN
WARMER ON MONDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. MILDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY...LEE TROFFING AND ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF STRENGTHENS TO 40 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THUS...POPS WILL
BE INCREASING IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL NOT PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS FORTUNATE...AS WE DO NOT NEED ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2 INCH RAINFALL FOR A FEW DAYS. SO...WHILE POPS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 1.25 INCHES TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...20 TO
PERHAPS 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS TEMPERED A BIT BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUDINESS TO THE UPPER 60S. POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE EAST DURING THE EVENING WITH
STRONG CAA AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

A SHORT LIVED COOL SPELL FOLLOWS FROPA ON THURSDAY AS A DAMPENING
UPPER TROF MIGRATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MILD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST WILL BE BUILDING IN
FOR LATE WEEK...QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL PEAK IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE...AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE OUR COOLEST AS THE DRY COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD
AND WE RADIATE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEAR ZONAL AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INITIATE A WARMUP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING AS THE FLOW PHASES...BUT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...HENCE THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY AND WARMER WITH UNPHASED SPLIT FLOW PRODUCING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY NEAR 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS OR SO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/KRD
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS