Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 190755
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure over the southeastern United States will slowly
move south through Saturday. This will allow a much milder southwest
flow, especially noticeable this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

The Winter Weather Advisory for black ice and lingering hazardous
conditions is in effect through noon.

Another Winter Weather Advisory for Black Ice likely tonight.
Details later today after the continued snow amounts that linger are
considered.

It was clear and cold this morning. Clear skies were noted under the
expansive, arctic high pressure centered over MS/AL this morning.
The high extended northeast to cover all the mid-Atlantic states.
With the very cold temperatures after the snow storm on Thursday and
this morning, the limited melting with the sun Thursday has
solidified this morning. There were plenty of reports of accidents
last evening amid the black ice and refreeze on area roads. After
highs in the 30s over the snow/ice on Thursday, highs today should
be able to rebound more given the warming aloft. There is already a
very large temperature inversion between the surface and just a few
hundred feet above ground level. This will only increase through
sunrise as the temperatures bottom out with snow cover on the
ground, clear skies, and winds becoming calm. Even with full sun
again today, the snow remaining on the ground, essentially still a
good 3-11 inches over the Triad and Triangle areas will continue to
delay the moderating temperatures. Expect highs today in the mid 40s
over the snow covered Piedmont ranging well into the 50s along the
southern tier of counties that lack snow cover. We did undercut MOS
guidance again by as much as 3-5 degrees and/or preferred the colder
NAM/EC guidance over the warmer GFS statistical guidance that gave
solid 50s everywhere.

Tonight, even though there will be WAA aloft on the op of the
departing arctic air mass over NC, there should again be a very
strong/sharp near surface inversion again tonight. This occurs as
the winds again die off to calm in most areas, with clear skies.
Lows in the 20s (even some teens again where the almost crazy strong
inversions develop over the snow, especially in low lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

Continued moderation as the arctic high and residual cold air mass
gets lifted out by increasing SW flow and continued melting snow.
Sunny skies Saturday will allow warming into the mid 50s to near 60.
The snow melt regions should continue to struggle with highs in the
lower 50s.

Clear and chilly Saturday night, but not as cold with more
moderation. Lows 25-30 north-central Piedmont ranging into the mid
30s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...

Much milder to warm weather expected by Sunday and Monday. Some
lingering snow will continue to keep some highs down over the
northern Piedmont, otherwise highs should reach the lower to mid 60s
Sunday. Even warmer Monday with most snow gone by then - when highs
should get into the 60s in all areas.

The next chance of showers will be Monday night into Tuesday as the
main jet shifts to the Plains to the Great Lakes, heralding warm
weather for the SE states including NC.

Subtle cooling is expected Wednesday and Thursday behind the front;
however, the Pacific dominated air mass will bring lows in the 30s
and highs in the 50s. Even warmer weather is expected late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM Friday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Long Term: VFR conditions through much of the long term with the
next system not expected to affect the area until Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>077-083-084-086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett



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