Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 301543
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
843 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING
TO SOME AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA. WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION
ALOFT. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME WAVE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SURFACING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SO THESE WERE INCREASED. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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