Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 281008
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
308 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE RIDGE THAT CONTRIBUTED TO RECORD HIGHS YESTERDAY IS WEAKENING
AS ELONGATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. WHILE MOST
OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A WEAK IMPULSE IS STILL PROJECTED TO APPROACH
THE CENTRAL SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW LATE DAY HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS, BUT
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND AVAILABILITY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR MONDAY, A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF
CIRRUS. WITH IMPROVED MIXING AND 700 MB TEMPS WARMING TO SIMILAR
VALUES THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY, SOME LOWER ELEVATION SITES COULD
MAKE ONE MORE RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES
AFTER MONDAY. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
BY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
POPS...TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE TUESDAY...BUT IT MAINLY SERVES TO LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF DIGS A STRONGER WAVE SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT; IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
THE MODELS. THE GEM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT STILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THIS TIME OF YEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS LIKELY TO REFLECT THE COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT LIKE THEY WOULD IN MID WINTER...SO SURFACE HIGHS...WHILE
LOWERED A LITTLE MORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DO NOT REFLECT
THESE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS WERE LOWERED A BIT MORE
THOUGH...THINKING STRONGER SHOWERS COULD DROP THE SNOW LEVELS DUE TO
THE WET BULB EFFECT. THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALSO INDUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SEE ISOLATED TSTMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE WERE NOT ADDED YET.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD FRIDAY BUT REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT SO
TEMPS DO NOT REBOUND THAT MUCH. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TODAY WILL BRING
EAST NORTHEAST FLOW TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SURFACE
WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE
MOST OF THE DAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
LITTLE ELSE IN TERMS OF ADVERSE WEATHER. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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