Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 270943
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
243 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016
Light winds and high temperatures a few degrees above average
expected through the weekend. High pressure breaks down Monday
and Tuesday for increasing breezes, with cooler temperatures
likely by late week.
High pressure building into the area will bring dry and warm
conditions for the weekend. Temperatures will be 4-6 degrees
above normal with highs in the low 90s in western Nevada and low
80s in the Sierra. Some moderate cumulus build ups will remain
possible today along the Sierra crest of Mono County but
instability is too shallow for significant vertical development.
Afternoon zephyr winds are expected to be average to weak through
Sunday. Cloudy skies will begin to develop north of I-80 along
with slightly stronger winds on Monday as the leading edge of
another shortwave trough pushes into the area. -Zach
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...
Only very minimal changes were made to the extended forecast this
period. Medium range models are in good agreement for Tuesday with a
short wave lifting through the northern half of the CWA. Models are
in disagreement with how much...if any...pcpn actually occurs. We
will leave the pops just below 15 percent.
Beyond Tuesday the GFS is far less aggressive than 24 hours
ago...but is still more aggressive than the ECMWF and many of the
GEFS ensemble members with regard to the strength of the trough
moving into the region. The timing has slowed enough that now this
trough appears to be affecting the region initially late Friday.
Temperatures cool for Friday...but again...the GFS is more
aggressive with this than the other models. Because it appears to be
an outlier we have keep temperatures warmer than the GFS guidance
and also will keep the likelihood of precipitation out of the
forecast for the time being.
Gusty winds are likely on Tuesday and again on Thursday and Friday.
Wind gusts appear to be less of an issue Wednesday as of this
writing. These gusty winds could raise some fire weather concerns as
humidity will be low and could also cause areas of blowing dust.
VFR conditions are likely through the weekend with mainly light
winds. Late afternoon and early evening winds could increase by
Sunday...but this is more likely early next week as thermal
gradients start to increase.
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