Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210315
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
915 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Not seeing the bowing/discrete structure in the pre-frontal
storms we saw earlier this evening across portions of Northeast
Texas into Southwest Arkansas with the prefrontal activity quickly
decreasing in coverage and intensity. What is continuing to
blossom is the convection immediately on the front and in the wake
of the frontal boundary with regional radar mosaics showing
convection well west of the I-45 Corridor of Central Texas.

Latest 00z NAM output showing the frontal boundary, which as of
03z was oriented near a DeQueen, Arkansas, Mineola, Texas line,
will continue moving very slowly south and east overnight and
should be just northwest of the Shreveport/Bossier City metro area
by 12z Wed. Thus, convection should continue to build and expand
south and east overnight, encompassing all but our southeast half.
There is good agreement in the latest HRRR and 00z NAM that our
southeast zones should see very little if any precipitation
overnight so have lowered pops across these zones. Otherwise kept
heavy rainfall wording across the Watch area overnight with the
heavier downpours likely not reaching Northwest Louisiana until
near or shortly after sunrise.

Updated hourly grids to mimic current conditions and to account
for the frontal movement into our northwest zones but otherwise,
forecast is in good shape.

Update out shortly...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 21/00z TAFs, convection is likely to affect all TAF sites
this period as a strong cold front gradually move into and across
the area. Flight conditions will vary initially, but IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected at most sites, especially
after 21/06z, as the convection spreads southeast across the
region. The front will become stationary across the area, which
should allow showers and thunderstorms to prevail at most TAF
sites for much of the period.

Note: Amendments are not currently scheduled for KELD because the
ASOS is down, and there are no backup observation facilities.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  66  54  67 /  90 100 100  60
MLU  67  72  57  72 /  30 100 100  80
DEQ  46  51  46  55 / 100 100  80  70
TXK  53  55  47  57 / 100 100 100  60
ELD  62  64  49  63 /  90 100 100  80
TYR  47  54  47  58 / 100 100  80  70
GGG  54  59  51  65 / 100 100  90  70
LFK  66  69  56  71 /  80 100  90  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

CN/13



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