Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SOLID CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...PROVIDING A MAJOR
WEATHER HAZARD FOR EAST...WEST AVIATION TRAFFIC THIS EVENING.
LATEST TRENDS INDICATED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE SOLID LINE
SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME. BY 08Z THE LINE SHOULD BE
ALONG A KDEQ TO KTYR LINE REACHING A KELD...KSHV...KLFK LINE BTWN
10Z AND 12Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MOST
CONVECTION ENDING OR MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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