Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 150504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 15/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD AFFECT
KMLU/KLFK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. ANY SITES THAT DO
EXPERIENCE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SEE A QUICK IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO VFR
BY 15/15Z. MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHWRS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/WRN N TX
COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT RAIN CHANCES AT ANY TAF
SITES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS TO RAISE THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SLIGHTLY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE AFTER 7 AM BEFORE
IT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER NCNTRL LA CONTINUES TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS REMAIN SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AREAS TO THEIR WEST/NORTH/EAST. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUD COVER
FINALLY MIX OUT BY EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE
ABNORMALLY COOL NIGHT BEFORE THE AIR MASS MODIFIES BY MONDAY. FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX/GULF COAST STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE ACROSS W TX...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD E
ATOP THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO REVEALS OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING NRN MT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL AR BY
AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
MONDAY MORNING OVER SE OK/WRN AR...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER E INTO
NE TX/SW AR BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN/T
BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR SRN ZONES OF E TX/NCNTRL LA IN RESPONSE
TO AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE THAT WILL SPREAD NW INLAND ACROSS THE SE
TX/S LA COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE WWD MOVING UPPER LOW THAT DRIFT W
TOWARDS THE ERN MX/DEEP E TX COASTS. HAVE REMOVED POPS MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA WHICH SHOULD BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE 2
SYSTEMS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND HEATING RESULTS IN
BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...WITH THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN QUITE
DRY...WHEREAS THE WRF AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S ACROSS E TX/N LA. HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...AND THE SHORTWAVE DROPS S OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY N ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE FROM MAJOR HURRICANE
ODILE EXPECTED TO SPILL ESE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
TX. DID CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE SW
SECTIONS OF E TX WITH THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE POSSIBLY POOLING NEAR
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A WEAK SFC FRONT TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AT SOME POINT
BY LATE WEEK. ATTM...THIS FRONT WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO TEMPS...BUT
COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SW
AR/NCNTRL LA. THE BNDRY MAY ALSO FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DROP SE ACROSS
ERN OK/AR. AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO BUILD
E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  91  70  90  70 /   0  10  20  30  20
MLU  65  90  69  89  68 /   0  10  20  30  20
DEQ  63  85  66  86  66 /  10  20  20  20  10
TXK  63  86  68  86  67 /  10  20  20  30  10
ELD  62  87  67  86  66 /   0  20  20  30  10
TYR  66  88  71  89  71 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  65  88  69  89  70 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  67  92  71  91  72 /   0  20  20  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




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