Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

13



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