Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291203
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE
THROUGH 30/00Z. THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
APPROACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 29/18Z. ANOTHER BAND WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NW INTO OK AND SHOULD FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST BAND. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS
COULD PERSIST AS FAR SE AS KSHV AFTER 30/00Z BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09


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