Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221721
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014


.AVIATION...
CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5000 FT..HAVE DEVELOPED AREAWIDE...SLIGHTLY
MORE PREVALENT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
SKC AFTER 23/00Z...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT
KMLU...KELD...AND KELD TERMINALS. MORE CU DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW...WITH ISOLD CONVECTION AT LEAST AROUND KMLU AND KLFK
BEFORE 23/18Z. WIND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE
PERIOD./VII.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT CU FIELD IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
LATE MORNING...JUST BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY JUST W OF PRX...INTO ECNTRL TX NEAR A
JDD/GGG/LFK/JAS LINE INTO SCNTRL LA. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO NOT
MIX THIS BNDRY BACK NW AS IT DID MONDAY...BUT RATHER MAINTAIN SFC
RIDGING FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION SW ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE BAY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DRIFT W TOWARDS THE FAR SE BOOT OF LA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR ERN NCNTRL LA
PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...BUT
DID DROP POPS FARTHER W ACROSS WCNTRL LA/MUCH OF DEEP E TX...AS
DRIER AIR WILL MIX SW ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
CONDITIONS TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE SCT CU
FIELD.

ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 15Z OBS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY...WITH SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN WET GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  71  93  72  92 /   0  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  92  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  92  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  92  69  93  71  93 /   0  10  20  30  30
TYR  93  71  94  74  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  94  73  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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