Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 012054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF AN ENLONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TX
RESULTING IN NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE LAST 24 HRS IS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST.
DRY SFC HIGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS SFC HIGH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM INTO
THE UPPER 90S AND APPROACHING 100 DEGREES F BUT THE DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST. THE INCREASED
NWLY FLOW SHOULD BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION.
ASCENT FROM THE PASSING TROUGH AND MOISTURE OFF THE GULF MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NRN
LA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST ASCENT AND A
WEAK SFC FRONT WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND SO WILL
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. IN SHORT...WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

WITHOUT ANY SIGIFICANT RAINFALL...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO COMBAT
THE HEAT OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY BEGIN APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN AS PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TO
SURGE NWD AND HUMIDITY LVLS TO CLIMB.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  98  73 100 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  69  97  70  99 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  97  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  69  97  71  98 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  66  96  68  99 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  72  98  73 100 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  70  98  71  99 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  67  98  70  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09


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