Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290503
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1203 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Little change to the 06z TAF package from the 00z TAF package. IR
imagery late this evening showing a mixture of low VFR and MVFR
ceilings across most of NE TX with this cloud cover pushing north
and east. This cloud cover should encompass most if not all our
terminal locations near or just prior to sunrise. Regional radar
mosaics showing a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along a
Wichita Falls, Comanche to near Hondo Texas with this line moving
generally eastward near 40kts. This line of convection may slow
down as it moves eastward overnight but did add VCTS to the TYR
terminal as early as 10z and to the GGG terminal as early as 12z.

Otherwise, thinking is that this line of convection will continue
weakening in coverage and intensity before and after sunrise Wed
morning with convection re-firing near and especially to the east
of a HOT Springs, Shreveport, to Lufkin line late Wed Aftn and
steadily push eastward during the evening and overnight hours on
Wed.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 954 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will make no changes to the forecast this evening. Lower clouds
will be spreading North into the region with skies becoming mostly
cloudy. Could see some rain development over parts of Northeast
Texas into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas where surface
boundary resides. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions late this evening should continue through the next
6 hours or so before we begin to see stratus developing/moving
northward from the SE TX/S LA coast and effecting our terminal
airspace overnight. Believe this will come in as mostly MVFR
ceilings with heights near 1-2kft but will need to watch for some
IFR ceilings briefly late tonight through the early morning hours
on Wed. Pressure gradient will remain strong but with a developing
inversion overnight, we should see winds decouple slightly. Strong
SSE winds will return with earnest on Wed with gusts upwards of
25kts possible across all but the MLU/ELD terminals.

Convection will be moving our way overnight in the form of a
broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms but should begin to
weaken in coverage and intensity to our west and northwest near or
just after 12z Wed. Made mention of tempo TSRA at the TYR/GGG
terminals for the morning hours on Wed just in case this
convection moving our way stays in tact. Otherwise, we await on
daytime heating and reorganization of strong to severe
thunderstorms by late afternoon into the evening hours mainly
along and east of a line from the LFK/SHV/TXK terminal eastward in
the 21z-00z period and advancing eastward towards the ELD/MLU
terminals just beyond this TAF cycle.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  63  75 /  20  60  80  30
MLU  65  85  66  78 /  20  20  90  70
DEQ  63  75  56  68 /  50  80  60  40
TXK  65  78  60  71 /  40  70  80  40
ELD  63  82  63  76 /  20  40  90  60
TYR  68  78  57  70 /  60  80  40  20
GGG  68  78  60  72 /  40  70  70  30
LFK  69  80  62  76 /  20  70  70  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ070-
     071.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001-
     002-010.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165.

&&

$$

06/13



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