Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 280009
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
811 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A quasi-statonary front this evening extended roughly from near
Savannah to Tallahassee and then southward into the eastern Gulf.
North and west of this boundary dew points were generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s and upper 60s to lower 70s to the east.
Scattered convection developed this afternoon across the SE Big Bend
in the more moist environment but is diminishing rapidly with the
loss of daytime heating. Will keep chance PoPs over the eastern
coastal waters but will trim back pops over land areas. After a few
cool mornings for late August, min temps will return to near
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
In the upper levels, there will be weak troughing to the west and
weak ridging to the east. At the sfc, a stationary boundary will
divide the region with the western portion in the dry sector and the
eastern portion in the moist sector. As low level moisture begins to
creep back into the region, rain chances will increase. POPs around
40 to 50 percent are expected for the eastern Big Bend and
easternmost Georgia counties. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms
will be more isolated. Highs on Friday will be in the low 90s with
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
On Saturday, low level moisture will continue to increase, resulting
in scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the region in the
afternoon hours. POPs will be around 50 to 60 percent for all
locations. Highs on Saturday will be around 90 with heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Upper level features are forecast to be weak in the extended
period. At the sfc, features will be weak until late Monday when
Erika may be affecting central Florida. Therefore, there is a lot
of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Monday. Sunday and Monday,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon/evening hours as low level moisture increases.
The official NHC forecast for Erika has the entire Florida
peninsula, the extreme eastern Gulf and the open waters of the
Atlantic east of Florida in the error cone. There is still a great
deal of uncertainty with Erika`s track. If Erika tracks farther east
and remains over open Atlantic waters, it will not impact the
region. If Erika tracks farther west into the Gulf it could become
more of a threat to the Florida Panhandle. If Erika tracks through
the center of the cone, it may become a weak hurricane moving along
the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Expect highs in the low 90s with heat
indices around 100 degrees at times.
[Through 00Z Saturday] Generally VFR conditions are expected through
tonight, but some of the numerical guidance indicates the potential
for some low cigs around KVLD and KABY. Scattered TSRA will develop
Friday afternoon, but mainly after 18z.
Light winds and low seas are expected through the weekend.
Aside from possible high dispersion Friday afternoon, there are no
fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend.
Starting tomorrow we`ll be transitioning to a wetter pattern,
with rain expected through at least the weekend. On average,
rainfall amounts through the weekend will have little to no
impacts on area rivers. Depending on the eventual track of Erika,
rainfall amounts could drastically increase into next week.
However, Erika`s current track will have only a minimal impact
w.r.t. to rainfall locally.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 91 74 89 74 / 10 30 20 60 30
Panama City 73 88 76 86 75 / 0 30 30 60 20
Dothan 69 90 72 87 71 / 10 20 20 50 30
Albany 71 90 73 89 73 / 10 30 20 60 30
Valdosta 72 91 73 90 73 / 20 50 20 60 30
Cross City 73 90 74 89 74 / 20 50 20 50 30
Apalachicola 73 88 76 86 75 / 10 30 30 60 20