Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 030235
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
extending from Huntsville through Lake Charles. A weak, cold
pool-induced high pressure system was centered over south central
AL, with a couple of weak outflow boundaries on its southeast
flank across portions of southeast AL and the northeast Gulf
Coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a subtle short wave
trough entering the FL Panhandle and south AL, though much of the
thunderstorm activity associated with this feature has
diminished. Weak Q-G forcing will persist until early Tuesday
morning, when this short wave trough passes to our east. Until
this forcing ends, a few showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible, owing to sufficient buoyancy and PBL moisture, as well
as possible mesoscale boundary interactions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [739 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An east-west oriented area of +PV that stretches from the Great
Lakes region, through the Plains and and Pacific Northwest, will
begin to move southeast as another +PV anomaly dives south through
the Northern Plains tonight. At the surface, the associated cold
front currently draped through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys will enter the Tri-State late Tuesday afternoon.
While convection is expected tomorrow along the cold front, storms
will be possible earlier in the day as well as an increasingly
diffluent upper level pattern provides some extra support to what
will likely be a weak seabreeze due to high cloudiness. Further,
moderately steep lapse rates are expected to advect through the
region during the first half of the day tomorrow, sourced from the
EML over Mexico. This will result in the potential for small to
marginally severe hail through the first half of the day. Through
the day, plenty of instability will couple with marginal deep
layer shear to also warrant the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. The damaging wind threat may increase later in the day as
deep layer shear increases a bit. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will come to an end across all but the southeast Big Bend by dawn
on Wednesday, and everywhere by the afternoon. Wednesday will
feature much cooler afternoon temperatures than recent days, with
upper 70s west of the Flint and Apalachicola rives, and highs
around 80 elsewhere. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the low 60s across north Florida, and the upper 50s across
Alabama and Georgia.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The week will end with slightly below seasonal temperatures both
day and night as a large upper trough remains over the eastern
third of the country. Through the weekend, ridging will build back
in with temperatures climbing to seasonal normals or slightly
above. Rain is not expected Thursday through Monday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Isolated TSRA are possible overnight, but PoPs are too low for
their mention in this TAF package. NWP guidance agreement is
rather high in developing widespread MVFR cigs/Vis late tonight,
with a good chance of several sites dropping to IFR levels at
times. Cigs/Vis will improve mid to late morning. Numerous TSRA
will develop by Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly
southeast across the region.


.MARINE...

Light southwesterly flow will become northwesterly around
Cautionary levels behind a front Wednesday through Thursday night.
Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected to prevail
through the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

After a rainy Tuesday, much drier and slightly cooler air will move
into the region behind a cold front Wednesday. Stronger winds and
deep mixing may drive daytime dispersion values up to 75 Wednesday
afternoon. Afternoon RH values may reach locally critical thresholds
later this week.


.HYDROLOGY...

Expected rainfall amounts around an inch through Tuesday are not
expected to aggravate current river levels. No rain is expected
from midweek through early next week. Thus, there are no
hydrology concerns for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  83  66  80  60 /  20  70  30  10  10
Panama City   72  79  67  77  65 /  30  60  30  10   0
Dothan        68  80  60  76  57 /  40  80  30  10  10
Albany        68  82  63  77  57 /  30  80  50  10  10
Valdosta      69  85  66  81  58 /  20  60  50  20  10
Cross City    68  86  70  80  62 /  20  20  40  40   0
Apalachicola  72  79  69  78  66 /  30  50  40  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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