Area Forecast Discussion
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790
FXUS62 KTAE 301039
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
639 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions will prevail this morning and into the early
afternoon hours. Winds from the ENE will increase slightly during
the afternoon, generally around 10 kts with a few gusts to 15 kts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop in the late
afternoon and early evening, mainly at or near VLD, TLH, and ECP.
Brief visibility restrictions are possible in heavier
showers/storms. Winds will subside during the evening, with any
showers or storms expected to dissipate by sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [250 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Our area will remain under deep layer easterly flow overnight
through the daytime hours. A broad area of high pressure resides to
our north from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and Tropical
Depression 9 is currently located several hundred miles to our south
in the southeastern Gulf. Seasonably moist conditions will remain in
place, with PWAT values projected to range from 1.6" to 1.9". With
moderate instability building during the afternoon and early evening
(SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg), scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible. Best chances/coverage of showers and storms is
expected to be in the FL Big Bend and south central GA, where
moisture content should be highest. High temperatures will be
typical for this time of year; highs will be in the low-mid 90s
inland and near 90 along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The focus this week for the region remains on the tropics, as
Tropical Depression Nine remains progged to impact the region later
this week.

***QUICK POINTS***

-TD 9 is still forecast to become a Tropical Storm, potentially as
early as later today.

-The forecast continues to bring the system onshore in the eastern
Big Bend/Nature Coast area as a Tropical Storm sometime during
the day Thursday.

-Note that impacts can extend well beyond the center of circulation.

-Despite the current forecast, it is important to note that there
continues to be some uncertainty in the intensity forecast, thus
changes remain possible in future forecast issuances.

-Now is the time to prepare. Review your plan and refresh
your emergency kits. Visit ready.gov for more information.

***DISCUSSION***

Tropical Depression Nine is now located to the northwest of Cuba
over the Gulf of Mexico, moving west-northwestward at 7 mph as of
11 PM EDT. The latest hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery
shows a better organized system, with more favorable conditions
(warm sea- surface temperatures, low shear, and increased moisture
to the N and NE of the system) for gradual intensification into a
tropical storm, possibly later today. Model guidance remains
consistent in the system turning northeastward on Wednesday and
impacting the Big Bend Region as a Tropical Storm sometime on
Thursday. While it remains too early to specifically pinpoint
impacts expected with this system, it is important to reiterate
that impacts from tropical systems can be felt well away from the
center of the system.

***POTENTIAL IMPACTS***

-Coastal Flooding due to storm surge.

-Heavy rainfall and flooding inland, particularly in previously
saturated areas in the Big Bend Region.

-Gusty and potentially damaging winds.

-Increased risk for rip currents along all area beaches.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The tropical cyclone is expected to clear the CWA and be located in
the Atlantic by Friday allowing for a much quieter pattern in the
long term. While there will be some drier air across the CWA after
the tropical cyclone, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
persist into the first half of the weekend. For Sunday through
Tuesday, high pressure from the northeast builds into the area with
drier air. The GFS suggests PWs dropping below 1 inch. ECMWF doesn`t
suggest quite as dry a solution with some lingering PoPs. Given this
is still quite a few days away, have trended below climatology but
still mentioned low end PoPs (20%).


.MARINE...

Conditions will deteriorate as Tropical Depression Nine strengthens
into a Tropical Storm, tracking across coastal waters in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Expect an increase in winds and seas
in this time-frame, with tropical storm conditions possible. The
system is expected to exit the region late Thursday/Friday, yielding
a gradual decrease in winds and seas Friday into the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are expected, as RH values will remain well
above critical thresholds.


.HYDROLOGY...

Heavy rainfall will be possible later this week, as a Tropical Storm
remains forecast to impact the region. Potential impacts from this
system include coastal flooding from storm surge as well as heavy
rainfall. Exact rainfall amounts and the location and magnitude of
storm surge remains contingent on the track, speed, and intensity of
the system. The current timing for heaviest impacts remains between
Wednesday and Thursday nights. Stay tuned for additional updates in
future forecast issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  75  91  76  88 /  50  10  50  50  70
Panama City   90  76  88  77  88 /  40  20  40  40  50
Dothan        92  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  20  30
Albany        93  73  92  74  91 /  30  10  30  20  50
Valdosta      91  73  90  74  86 /  40  10  60  50  70
Cross City    90  74  86  75  83 /  50  30  70  70  90
Apalachicola  88  77  87  77  87 /  40  30  50  60  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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