Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 281417
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
At 14 UTC this morning, our region was located between weak high
pressure across the Southern Appalachians, TD2 about 225 SSE of
Charleston SC and an approaching mid level disturbance across the
Mid Mississippi River Valley. This has left a relatively weak
pressure pattern in place across North Florida, with generally
light easterly flow. Aloft, drier mid level air across the
Carolina Piedmont in advance of TD2 extends down through South
Georgia and into North Florida, as depicted well in the 12z KTAE
sounding. This drier air aloft and subsidence present at 800 mb
will be the main limiting factors for thunderstorm development
today across the eastern half of the region.

The airmass is a little more favorable for convection off to the
west of Tallahassee, where the hi-res guidance suggests isolated
thunderstorm development in the late afternoon with the Panhandle
sea breeze. Given good run to run consistency in the hi-res
guidance, will continue the low end PoPs in the Panhandle sea
breeze zone. Should be a warm day, especially across South Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend, where highs will be in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the period.
Iso TSRA handled with VC groups at ECP this afternoon. Fog is
unlikely overnight, though cannot be ruled out, at least at MVFR
levels at VLD on Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [317 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

A broad upper level ridge will stay in place over the east coast
through Sunday before lifting north on Monday. Tropical Depression
Two, currently 350 miles southeast of Charleston, will slowly
approach the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Impacts will
stay well to the northeast of the local area. There will be a slight
chance (20-30%) of sea breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs
will be in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Upper level flow will be zonal to start the long term period. By
Wednesday the trough over the central US will begin to deepen. Moisture
will increase on Thursday resulting in a 30% chance of thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows near
70.


.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds around 10 knots will become westerly on
Monday. Seas will be 3 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain for the
next few days, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  68  92  69  93 /  20  10  10   0  20
Panama City   82  71  85  73  87 /  30   0  10  10  20
Dothan        88  67  91  69  92 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        89  67  91  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      88  66  91  67  92 /   0  10  10   0  20
Cross City    91  67  90  67  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  86  72  87 /  30   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston


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