Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 010705
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
305 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The main concern today will be the advancing line of showers and
thunderstorms across the area, as well as a wake low that has
developed early this morning across portions of southern Alabama and
the western Florida panhandle. This wake low has produced measured
gusts as high as 51 knots at the Pensacola Naval Air Station with
widespread gusts of 35-40 knots across southern Alabama. Wake lows
are notoriously hard to forecast, but we will be watching to see how
far east it makes it during the early morning hours. It`s not out of
the realm of possibility that some gusty winds could affect our far
western counties in southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle
early this morning. Regarding the chance of severe storms today, not
much has changed. Overall, the risk looks marginal with a few
sporadic damaging wind gusts still possible. Skies will be clearing
from west to east behind the line of convection later this
afternoon. Highs will generally range from the upper 70s to near 80
across the west to the mid 80s across the east.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Pre-frontal shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
across the eastern third of the forecast area. Expect this activity
to gradually taper off from northwest to southeast through the
evening and overnight hours, as the cold front associated with this
system moves through the region. Tuesday and Wednesday will yield
quiet and drier conditions behind the front. Expect high
temperatures to continue to run in the mid to upper 80s. However,
dewpoints behind the front will be ~20 to 25 degrees less than they
were before - yielding more pleasant conditions during the day. As a
result of this drier air, overnight lows will return to seasonal
levels, with mid to upper 50s expected across the region.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Quiet and dry conditions look to be short lived, as operational
model guidance continues to indicate a potent upper level low
digging across the Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Agreement in guidance is
currently high regarding chances for much needed rainfall across the
region in the form of organized showers and thunderstorms, as shear
and instability progs continue to support this. As mentioned in the
previous AFD, the chance for severe storms cannot be ruled out with
this system. We will continue to monitor this system closely over
the next several days - stay tuned for the latest forecasts!

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread the area this morning as
a line of showers and thunderstorms moves eastward ahead of a
cold front. Winds will also be gusty along and ahead of the line.
Brief periods of IFR visibility are possible in thunderstorms. VFR
conditions are expected to return from west to east during the
afternoon-evening behind the line of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for waters west of the
Apalachicola River through 8 am EDT. Winds, seas, and surf will
gradually decrease through the day and turn westward with the
passage of a cold front this afternoon. Calmer conditions are
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, before winds and seas increase
once again for Thursday ahead of another storm system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 0.50 to 1 inch range today
from Tallahassee north and westward, with lesser amounts to the
south and east. Another system is likely on Thursday with heavier
totals possible. However, the risk of river flooding is low given
the recent dry conditions and relatively low river levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  57  87  57  88 /  70  10   0   0   0
Panama City   76  63  84  65  86 /  80   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  55  84  59  87 /  90   0   0   0   0
Albany        80  55  84  57  87 /  80  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  58  87  56  88 /  50  40   0   0   0
Cross City    84  65  86  58  89 /  30  40  10   0   0
Apalachicola  77  61  82  62  83 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for Coastal
     Franklin.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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