Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 161042
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
642 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the
cycle. Periods of MVFR conditions are expected until shortly after
daybreak at DHN and possibly at ABY. The best chance for seeing
afternoon convection will be at ECP, DHN and TLH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [254 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging continues to build in from the east. Convection
should be suppressed somewhat across our eastern zones where models
show infiltration of mid to upper level drier air. PoPs will be
tapered highest (50%) west of a line from near Tallahassee to east
of Dothan and 30-40% elsewhere. Highs will be in the lower to middle
90s with heat indices around 105 degrees.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Slightly drier air will be in place for Thursday as deep layer
ridging retrogrades slightly westward closer to our area.
Therefore, slightly lower cloud cover will help highs reach the
lower to mid 90s and heat indices will reach the lower to mid
100s. The high pressure continues westward for Friday with
moisture building back in and higher chances for rainfall as
compared to Thursday. The highest PoPs Friday will be across
our Florida counties with chances slowly decreasing northward into
SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Highs will be in the lower 90s and heat
indices around 100 degrees.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Good rain chances will continue into the weekend as an upper
trough passes through the eastern CONUS and an inverted trough and
tropical wave moves across the Gulf and southeast states. As these
two features pass by, mid level ridging builds in late in the
weekend through mid week next week. Drier air associated with the
ridging will overspread the area with rain chances decreasing to
below or close to climatological norms. Highs will remain in the
lower 90s through the extended period with heat indices around 100
and into the lower 100s each afternoon.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas are expected over the next
several days, with the best chance for showers and storms between
midnight and noon.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread flooding is not anticipated this period. However,
typical afternoon and evening showers and storms each day could
lead to minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas underneath
heavier storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   92  75  93  74  91 /  40  20  40  30  60
Panama City   90  80  91  80  89 /  40  20  30  30  50
Dothan        92  75  93  75  92 /  50  20  40  20  40
Albany        93  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  40  20  40
Valdosta      92  74  94  73  91 /  30  20  40  20  60
Cross City    92  75  93  75  89 /  30  20  40  30  50
Apalachicola  90  78  91  78  89 /  30  20  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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