Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 210041
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
841 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front, rather
strong in terms of temperature contrast, from northeast AL through
coastal TX. This front will move through our forecast area late
tonight and early Friday. There were only a few showers associated
with this front upstream from our region, and it appears that the
strongest forcing will remain to our north. Additionally, moisture
and instability will be lacking with the front, so we expect PoPs
of less than 20% over land. The cooler air will lag behind the
front such that there won`t be a significant cool-down until
.PREV DISCUSSION [738 PM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dry cold front will have cross the entire Tri-State region by
early Friday afternoon. Aloft however, the 850mb front will lag
behind a bit. This will allow a relatively sharp temperature
gradient to develop across the region with mid 80s in the
southeast Big Bend, and upper 70s across Alabama where diurnal
mixing taps into the cooler air aloft. With winds expected to
remain somewhat elevated overnight on Friday, expect lows to dip
to around the 50 degree mark for most inland locations, and the
upper 40s across Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia. The cooler
air aloft will cover much of the local area on Saturday, resulting
in highs in the low to mid 70s area-wide. The coldest night will
likely be Saturday night when winds calm and dry air is firmly in
place. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 40s across all
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Low amplitude ridging will build into the local area just south of
the departing trough through Tuesday when a more zonal pattern
will take over for the remainder of the period. High pressure
will remain established at the surface, with easterly flow
returning around mid-week. The easterly flow may bring a slight
chance for showers, but for the most part, rain is not expected in
the extended forecast.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...
As a cold front crosses the area late tonight and early tomorrow,
northwest winds will pick up in DHN first, then ECP and ABY, then
later Friday morning at TLH and VLD. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period, though there may be a brief period of
MVFR cigs (2000-2500 ft) just ahead of the front.
Beginning late tonight, winds and seas will climb to advisory
levels, remaining that way through Saturday morning. Thereafter,
moderate northeasterly winds will continue through Sunday, before
calming through next week.
A cold front will move across the region tonight with much cooler
and drier in place for the weekend. Relative humidity values on
Friday afternoon look to drop to near 30 percent, which isn`t low
enough to justify a fire weather watch in Srn Alabama. RH values
will be even lower on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, possibly in
the low 20 percent range. However, other necessary red flag
criteria are unlikely to be met.
Little if any rainfall expected over the next seven days. Therefore,
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 82 51 74 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 66 78 55 73 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 77 47 72 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 63 79 47 73 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 83 49 73 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 62 85 51 75 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 68 80 55 73 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.