Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 271026
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
626 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Patchy BR has been effecting terminals across the area this
morning with vsbys dipping as low as 1 1/2 SM. Brief rounds of
cigs around 100-200 ft have been seen near CTY and FZG this
morning as well. VLD remains the site most likely to be impacted,
though brief reductions in cigs and vsbys will be possible near
TLH and ABY too. Conditions should improve to VFR by around 15Z
and remain so through the remainder of the period. Isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [326 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A deep, vertically stacked low pressure system lies just north of
the Great Lakes. Associated with this system is what we expect to be
our first cold front passage of the fall later this week. The front
currently stretches across the Apalachians, down across AL and into
Srn MS and LA, but will not make much movement today- barely budging
eastward. Ahead of the front lies locally higher pressure over the
southeastern states at the lower levels with a weak upper level
trough still hanging around over central FL. With weak forcing
locally from low level convergence ahead of the front and moisture
profiles near normal for early autumn, we expect convection today to
be more isolated than yesterday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be around 20-30%. Temperatures will peak in the
upper 80s to low 90s again today.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

A gigantic gyre of low pressure across the Great Lakes area will
slide southward through the short term period aided by a finger of
the upper jet on the west side of this feature and a strengthening
ridge across the western Atlantic. This whole entire system becomes
occluded with the support far removed from the surface cold frontal
boundary which will slow to a crawl to our northwest. A `spoke` of
vorticity around the west side of the low will support
frontogenesis Wednesday on the leading edge of a reinforcing shot
of high pressure from western Canada. This reinforcing shot will
sweep through the area Thursday bringing with it drier air and
thus cooler temperatures heading into the long term period.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

A cooler and drier airmass will be in place for Thursday night
through Friday night featuring dewpoints in the mid 50s, lows Friday
morning in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and highs Friday in the low to
mid 80s. A slow moderating trend is expected this weekend with
closer to average temperatures by Sunday. A slow increase in
moisture is expected as well through the period with a return of
slight chances for rain beginning Monday.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will rule today and tonight with high
pressure in control. A cold front will move through the coastal
waters early Thursday with winds becoming moderate and seas
increasing as a result. Small craft exercise caution conditions are
possible in the waters west of Apalachicola to Destin Thursday
night. Winds will slowly decrease heading into the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Light winds will make for low dispersions again today. A cold front
will push into the area later this week, bringing much drier air.
However, RH values are still expected to remain above red flag
criteria.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rain is expected over the next few days ahead of a cold front which
will sweep through the area later this week and bring drier air
with it for the weekend. No widespread, significant rainfall or
flooding threats are anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  72  89  67  89 /  30  20  40  20   0
Panama City   86  75  86  70  85 /  30  30  20  10   0
Dothan        89  68  89  61  86 /  30  30  20   0   0
Albany        89  69  89  62  86 /  20  30  20  10   0
Valdosta      89  70  89  65  88 /  20  30  40  20   0
Cross City    88  72  86  70  88 /  20  30  40  30  10
Apalachicola  87  75  86  71  86 /  20  40  30  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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