Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KTAE 210041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
841 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front, rather
strong in terms of temperature contrast, from northeast AL through
coastal TX. This front will move through our forecast area late
tonight and early Friday. There were only a few showers associated
with this front upstream from our region, and it appears that the
strongest forcing will remain to our north. Additionally, moisture
and instability will be lacking with the front, so we expect PoPs
of less than 20% over land. The cooler air will lag behind the
front such that there won`t be a significant cool-down until



.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The dry cold front will have cross the entire Tri-State region by
early Friday afternoon. Aloft however, the 850mb front will lag
behind a bit. This will allow a relatively sharp temperature
gradient to develop across the region with mid 80s in the
southeast Big Bend, and upper 70s across Alabama where diurnal
mixing taps into the cooler air aloft. With winds expected to
remain somewhat elevated overnight on Friday, expect lows to dip
to around the 50 degree mark for most inland locations, and the
upper 40s across Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia. The cooler
air aloft will cover much of the local area on Saturday, resulting
in highs in the low to mid 70s area-wide. The coldest night will
likely be Saturday night when winds calm and dry air is firmly in
place. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 40s across all
inland areas.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Low amplitude ridging will build into the local area just south of
the departing trough through Tuesday when a more zonal pattern
will take over for the remainder of the period. High pressure
will remain established at the surface, with easterly flow
returning around mid-week. The easterly flow may bring a slight
chance for showers, but for the most part, rain is not expected in
the extended forecast.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...

As a cold front crosses the area late tonight and early tomorrow,
northwest winds will pick up in DHN first, then ECP and ABY, then
later Friday morning at TLH and VLD. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period, though there may be a brief period of
MVFR cigs (2000-2500 ft) just ahead of the front.


Beginning late tonight, winds and seas will climb to advisory
levels, remaining that way through Saturday morning. Thereafter,
moderate northeasterly winds will continue through Sunday, before
calming through next week.


A cold front will move across the region tonight with much cooler
and drier in place for the weekend. Relative humidity values on
Friday afternoon look to drop to near 30 percent, which isn`t low
enough to justify a fire weather watch in Srn Alabama. RH values
will be even lower on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, possibly in
the low 20 percent range. However, other necessary red flag
criteria are unlikely to be met.


Little if any rainfall expected over the next seven days. Therefore,
no concerns.



Tallahassee   64  82  51  74  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  78  55  73  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        60  77  47  72  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        63  79  47  73  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      62  83  49  73  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    62  85  51  75  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  80  55  73  52 /  10   0   0   0   0



GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Scholl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.