Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 282003
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION THERE...WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.4C/KM...SO AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AGAIN...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. THIS DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE REGION OF DRY AIR, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID
TROPOSPHERE, THAT ORIGINATED IN THE ATLANTIC EARLIER THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION, WITH JUST SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S), AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE (MID TO
UPPER 60S). THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

A LARGE 500 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MEANDER
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WITH BETTER Q-G FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BY MID WEEK. OUR
DAYTIME POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS SUNDAY (30 PERCENT), THEN IN
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THESE
FORECAST POPS MAY INCREASE, AND THERE COULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL
CONVECTION, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME PERIOD TO
RESOLVE IMPORTANT TIMING DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO,
WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KECP AND
KDHN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM EAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER AND MORE FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT, AND LIGHT ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...
THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO AROUND 40%. A
LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZE UNDER PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
INVERSION WILL LOWER MIXING DEPTHS TO UNDER A THOUSAND FEET...DEPTHS
TO GROW TO OVER 6 THOUSAND FEET AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 90S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENERALLY...DISPERSION RATES
WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR FORECAST AREA COUNTIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LEAD TO A RISE ON RIVERS, WITH
SOME APPROACHING ACTION STAGE, PARTICULARLY THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY, RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  92  67  92  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   71  84  70  86  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
DOTHAN        67  89  67  90  69 /  20  10   0  10  10
ALBANY        66  90  66  91  70 /  10   0   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      65  90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0  20  20
CROSS CITY    63  91  66  90  69 /   0   0   0  20  20
APALACHICOLA  71  86  71  85  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     BAY.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON


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