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FXUS62 KTAE 291052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
652 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]...

Scattered showers are slowly spreading inland across north Florida
this morning and dissipating after crossing I-10. VFR currently
prevails at all terminals, though IFR or MVFR restrictions will be
possible if a shower impacts TLH or ECP this morning. By mid-
morning, MVFR and a large area of showers and embedded storms are
expected to spread inland from the coast across the entire region.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An elongated ribbon of +PV stretches from the Mid-Atlantic through
the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys this morning. The
interaction of this wave with the coastal front is resulting in weak
cyclogenesis along the north-central Gulf coast. Boundary
interactions from the Peninsula seabreeze, the coastal front, and
outflow from the cluster of storms that developed south of LA
yesterday are responsible for the convective development along the
Panhandle coast this morning. These storms should gradually
dissipate through mid-morning, when the coastal trough/low reaches
the Panhandle. It will be this area of low pressure that brings the
bulk of the rainfall to the region today. Average rainfall amounts
west of a line from Albany through Apalachicola will likely be
around an inch, with a half inch expected elsewhere. In isolated
locations (especially in the panhandle of Florida), 12 hour rainfall
amounts could reach around 3 inches. Severe weather is not expected

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Model guidance shows that the deepest moisture associated with the
upper level disturbance will be lifting north of our region on
Friday. However, still plenty of moisture available for diurnal
convection. The mean 1000-700mb flow will be SW >10 kts which
favors decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With PW`s
higher than climo (~2") will keep PoPs in the 50-60% range except
a little lower along and near the coast (30-40%). With an expected
later start of the convection, max temps will return to near
seasonal levels (lower 90s).

As the western extension of the Bermuda Ridge slips southward
through the northern Gulf and upper ridging builds over the Florida
Peninsula, the deep layer flow will veer to become westerly. Our
region will be on the northern periphery of this ridge with some
subsidence drying expected as forecast PW`s finally drop under 2".
PoPs will be 40-50% north to northwest zones and 30% elsewhere.
Temps will be at or slightly above seasonal levels.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

A low amplitude upper ridge will remain anchored across the local
region and GOMEX through most of the upcoming week along with a
weak pressure pattern at the surface. Rain chances (30-40%) will
be lower than what we would expect for early July. Rain chances
may increase on Thursday as a trough digs down into the southeast
CONUS. High temperatures will mostly be in the lower 90s with
lows in the mid 70s.


Winds and seas will remain low through the next several days.
After high rain chances today and Friday, expect a return to
typical scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend.


Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days as
above average rain chances are expected to finish the week. Due to
the more widespread nature of showers and storms, expected
dispersion indices to be a bit low through Friday.


All area rivers have crested below flood stage across the region
after last week`s rainfall. There is some potential for locally
heavy rainfall across the area on Thursday and into Friday as the
disturbance moves through the region. The primary impact would be
localized flooding limited mainly to urban areas. However, the
overall flood threat remains low.



Tallahassee   86  74  90  74  91 /  60  30  60  20  30
Panama City   84  77  87  76  87 /  70  20  40  10  20
Dothan        82  73  90  73  89 /  90  40  60  20  50
Albany        85  73  91  73  90 /  90  40  60  30  50
Valdosta      87  73  91  73  91 /  80  40  60  20  30
Cross City    89  74  92  74  90 /  50  30  40  20  30
Apalachicola  85  78  88  76  88 /  40  20  30  10  20




NEAR TERM...Harrigan
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