Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 011746
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1246 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

MVFR cigs may hang in through tonight across parts of N FL
including ECP and TLH, but our AL and GA terminals will see a
brief improvement to VFR for the afternoon. As a cold front
crosses into the area, low clouds will move in overnight,
starting near DHN around 03Z, along with showers and isolated
thunderstorms. In the early morning hours, behind the front,
winds will become more northerly. Cigs are expected to improve to
VFR levels a few hours behind the frontal passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1107 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level trough heading into the Great Lakes this morning
can be seen in satellite imagery. The surface front associated
with this upper level feature stretches from eastern OH down to
southeast TX. The local area is situated well south and east of
the front at the moment and is still breaking out of fairly dense
low level cloud coverage, capping instability. As we warm up today,
instability will increase and our CAMs show CAPE peaking around
500-1000 J/kg in the afternoon, but the front (the main source of
forcing) will still be off to our west and our 0-6 km shear will
only be around 20-30 kts in the afternoon hours. Scattered
convection ahead of the front will be possible late in the
afternoon. The SPC has outlined portions of southeast AL and
southwest GA for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with
the main threat locally being damaging wind gusts. This threat is
more for the overnight hours when deep layer shear will be
stronger, though strong winds will be possible with thunderstorms
this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

In the upper levels a weak trough will be over the region. By tonight
a low will be over New England with a cold front extending through
the Southeast to the Gulf Coast. This front will be slow to move
through the Big Bend Region and will finally push through Thursday
evening. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Wednesday night with POPs of 50 to 60 percent for most of the
region. On Thursday POPs up to 50 percent are expected in the Big
Bend Region. SPC has a marginal chance for severe thunderstorms
tonight for the SE AL counties, the FL Panhandle and most of the
SW GA counties. A line of rain or possibly storms will approach
from the northwest in the late evening hours. Isolated severe
storms are possible with modest CAPE present and 50 to 60 knot 0-6
km wind shear. The primary threat will be damaging straight line
winds if the line of storms can hold together into the overnight
hours.

By Thursday night cool dry air will return bringing near zero rain
chances, clear skies and cooler temps through at least Saturday.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s. Highs on Friday will be in
the upper 60s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s. Lows
Thursday night will be in the lower 40s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a weak ridge will move through Saturday night
followed by a weak trough on Sunday night. A ridge will be
centered over the Gulf by Monday night. At the surface high
pressure will be centered over Eastern CONUS on Saturday and
Sunday. A weak pressure pattern will be over the Southeast the
rest of the week. A weak cold front will approach on Tuesday. The
best chance of rain will be Monday and Tuesday with POPs of 20 to
30 percent. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s. Otherwise
highs will be in the 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s Friday
night and in the lower 40s Saturday night. The rest of the week
lows will be in the 50s.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds at 10 to 15 knots will increase overnight tonight
as a cold front moves through. In the western waters (south of
Destin and Panama City) 20 knot winds are forecast beginning in
the early morning hours Thursday. Winds will stay elevated through
the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move through the area tonight through early
Thursday morning bringing a good chance for wetting rains to the
region. Behind the front, expect cooler and drier conditions. RH
values will fall to around 30 percent Thursday afternoon and low/mid
20 percent Friday afternoon. At this time, winds do not appear to be
strong enough to warrant Red Flag Warnings.


.HYDROLOGY...

Most local rivers are well below action stage. Rainfall totals are
expected to be less than half an inch over the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  68  42  70  39 /  60  20   0   0   0
Panama City   59  66  48  67  46 /  60  10   0   0   0
Dothan        53  64  41  66  39 /  70   0   0   0   0
Albany        55  65  40  67  37 /  70  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      60  67  41  69  39 /  60  30   0   0   0
Cross City    63  70  44  72  40 /  20  50  20   0   0
Apalachicola  62  68  48  68  46 /  50  30   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     for Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...McDermott
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...McDermott


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