Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR/VFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD SCATTER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  71  39  65  45 /  30  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   63  67  46  62  50 /  30  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        52  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        61  66  35  61  42 /  30  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  73  39  62  44 /  30  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  80  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  66  73  46  63  51 /  60  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER


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