Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 060050
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Very few changes were made to the forecast overnight. Based on the
widespread cloud cover around sunset, sky cover was increased to
reflect generally overcast conditions expected overnight.
Otherwise, we still expect lows in the low-mid 60s with light to
moderate NNE winds.
Based on the latest guidance, winds over the coastal waters have
been increased around 1 or 2 knots, which is sufficient for a 6-8
hour period of SCEC conditions. A headline will be added to the
evening Coastal Waters Forecast.
[Through 00Z Wednesday] Widespread MVFR CIGS were situated across
the forecast area at 00Z. These CIGS are expected to continue
overnight, most likely dropping into the low MVFR range or
possibly the IFR range. Confidence in IFR CIGS was only high
enough to include at VLD for now, but it will certainly be
possible at other terminals - particularly closer to daybreak. We
expect the low stratus to lift and scatter out after sunrise, with
MVFR conditions expected during the morning, giving way to VFR.
.Prev Discussion [309 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
As the deep low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast pulls
further off to the northeast, deep layer ridging and a drier airmass
will return to the local region. However, although we should see
more sun on Tuesday, we expect the low level cloudiness to linger
most of the day holding down max temps just under seasonal levels
(upper 70s to around 80). Wednesday will be mostly sunny with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 60s.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The upper ridge in place on Thursday will flatten to zonal flow
Friday and Saturday as a shortwave translates across the Great
Lakes through New England. This will send a cold front into our
CWA over the weekend. With little or no onshore flow through the
week, this system will be moisture starved so for now PoPs will be
low (~20%) and so should rainfall amounts. High temps will be in
the lower to mid 80s through Sunday and around 80 Monday. lows
will be in the mid to upper 60s through Friday night dropping to
the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday night.
Red Flag Warning conditions are not expected for the next several
The Choctawhatchee River is nearly steady at Bruce and will begin
to decrease Monday night. The crest is about a foot and a half
above action stage.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 79 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 64 79 65 83 65 / 0 10 0 0 0
Dothan 62 77 61 84 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 62 77 60 83 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 63 80 61 84 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 63 80 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 63 78 66 81 66 / 10 10 0 0 0
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal