Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 310033
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
833 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Storms across the northeast part of the CWA have formed into a
line across southwest Georgia and this area should remain the
focus of the storms over the next hour or two. Given this, have
increased the PoPs across this area. Should see storms diminish
over the next few hours with convection developing over the Gulf
after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [724 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer high pressure is over the northern Gulf coast today and
will remain in place through the evening. This ridging has allowed
temperatures to warm up quite a bit already today, with 1PM
temperatures already in the low to mid 90s everywhere except the FL
Panhandle. Precipitable water values on this morning`s TAE sounding
rose to about 1.7", but will continue to climb to around 2" by this
evening. We also have ample instability in place with SPC`s
mesoanalysis showing 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE across the forecast area.
With all of this moisture and instability in place, we`ve already
seen an active start with seabreeze thunderstorms across north FL
this morning and beginning to develop in southeast AL and southwest
GA this afternoon. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds.
Storms are expected to dissipate around sunset. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A deep ridge will persist over our area, resulting in a
typical summertime pattern where the sea breeze and outflow
boundaries will be the main forcing for daytime showers and
thunderstorms. Models are in fairly good agreement that very
moist air will persist, with around 2" PWAT values expected over
much of our area. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours with peak instability and sea breeze forcing. Seasonably
hot and humid conditions will continue, with highs generally in
the low-mid 90s. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland, with upper
70s to near 80 expected along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Continued deep layer ridging will persist over our area, keeping
hot and very humid conditions in place through this period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, and
coverage of showers/storms should be decent with PWAT values of at
least 2" projected to persist through the week. With moderate
instability and barely any shear present, no widespread severe
weather is anticipated; however, a few isolated strong wind gusts
can`t be ruled out from the pulse storms. Seasonable temperatures
will persist, with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the mid-
upper 70s each day.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

Isolated TSRA is across the area this evening but should remain
away from the TAF sites with the exception of ABY. Convection will
diminish overnight but expect TSRA again Sunday afternoon. Patchy
MVFR fog is possible in the morning but confidence is too low to
mention in the TAFs at this point.


.MARINE...

Winds around 10 to 15 knots or less will persist through the next
several days, with isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

No widespread flooding issues are expected through this period.
With deep layer moisture and slow movement of scattered
thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, localized areas
of minor flooding can`t be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  94  76  93  76 /  10  30  10  40  20
Panama City   79  89  80  88  79 /  20  30  10  30  10
Dothan        74  93  74  93  74 /  20  40  30  50  40
Albany        75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  20  40  40
Valdosta      75  95  74  93  74 /  20  40  20  40  30
Cross City    75  94  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  40  10
Apalachicola  77  89  78  89  78 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fieux
NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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