Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 301140
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Upper trof will continue to swing across
the area today dragging an associated cold front with it.
Scattered showers will continue to develop over central and
northern Montana early this morning with showers and isolated
thunderstorms increasing in areal coverage late this morning and
into the afternoon. Northwest winds will also become gusty this
afternoon and continue through Tuesday. Expected precipitation
totals remain in the tenth of an inch to a quarter inch range and
will be concentrated in the eastern portions of the county warning
area. The upper trof moves to northeast Montana overnight and
showers will begin to end from west to east. An upper ridge begins
to amplify over the west coast on Tuesday bringing drier
conditions to western Montana while lingering showers and gusty
winds persist in the east. 500mb heights rise Wednesday and a
brisk westerly flow aloft will continue the drying and warming
trend. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages to start the
week but afternoon readings should climb into the 70s by midweek.

Wednesday night through Monday...The period begins with a
brisk westerly flow aloft. Ensemble solutions reveal a bit of spread
amid this pattern as shortwave energy crosses southwest Canada.
Isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out, mainly over higher
terrain. Breezy west winds are expected to develop Thursday
afternoon and evening as a surface trough moves away to the east. By
Friday the ensemble solutions tighten up as a broad and nearly
stationary ridge strengthens over the western United States. This
ridge will maintain well above average temperatures through Monday.
Ensemble solutions finally begin to diverge late in the period as a
trough moves into northern California, creating a slight chance for
showers over southwest Montana early next week. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
An upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front will
continue to move across the area. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage after 17z, mainly north
of a KDLN-KBZN line. Northwest winds will become gusty after 15z.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers and/or thunderstorms. Gusty erratic winds are also
possible near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  40  62  42 /  40  30  20   0
CTB  55  38  61  40 /  60  30  10   0
HLN  63  42  65  44 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  63  36  64  38 /  30  20  20   0
WEY  57  32  57  34 /  10  10   0  10
DLN  64  37  65  40 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  55  45  62  42 /  50  50  40  10
LWT  57  41  58  40 /  40  40  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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