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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290544
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1043 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Quick further update to forecast...Fog developing in the Great Falls
area, and many locations across north central Montana have small
temperature/dewpoint spread, so have added mention of patchy
freezing fog there through Thursday morning. In southwest Montana,
temperature/dewpoint spreads are not as small, but clearing skies
should allow patchy fog to eventually form there as well, so have it
mentioned there through the morning also.
Coulston

Update to forecast posted with only minor changes made. Dropped
overnight low temperatures for tonight a few degrees across north-
central and central areas. With clearing skies and light wind,
cooling occurred a little faster than anticipated. Most lower
elevation sites now forecast to drop into the lower to mid 20s.
Also added a mention of patchy fog in portions of Hill and Blaine
Counties. Havre already reported fog briefly earlier this evening.
With clearing skies, cool temperatures and higher relative
humidity, expect areas of fog to develop and persist into the
early morning hours. Otherwise, going forecast on track...Thursday
and Friday should bring relatively quiet weather with temperatures
closer to seasonal averages. Winter then returns Saturday with
cooler temperatures and a chance of snow...mainly central and
north central.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0531Z.
High pressure will keep the airmass dry and mostly clear skies will
allow for areas of fog to develop. Best chances for MFR/IFR
conditions are along the Hiline, KCTB and KHVR, and south to include
KGTF and KLWT.  Fog will dissipate  the morning. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 405 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2015/

Tonight through Friday...Weak surface cold front continues to push
slowly across the area. Satellite imagery shows a large
post frontal area of low and mid clouds moving across the
northeast portion of the county warning area. Clearing behind this
area is now approaching the International Border and skies should
continue to gradually clear from north to south as the night wears
on. Weak ridging on Thursday will allow the dry pattern to
continue through Friday before another cold front, and associated
precipitation, approaches the area from the north late Friday.
Temperatures continue to slowly fall this afternoon behind the
cold front. Afternoon readings will be cooler to close out the
week but will still be above seasonal averages.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Forecast models continue to
indicate a trend to a colder and wetter pattern beginning this
weekend and through next week. The first weather system will
bring colder temperatures and light snow to north-central and
southwest Montana Friday Night through Saturday. The ECMWF keeps
the bulk the moisture and precipitation across eastern Montana
while the GFS brings it further west to areas along the
Continental Divide. Have trended more towards the GFS solution
and increased PoPs to high chance over the plains and likely in
the mountains. Snow accumulations will generally be light with 1
to 3 inches possible across lower elevations and 2 to 5 inches in
the mountains at and above pass level. Another surge of cold air
and light snow will move over the area Sunday through Monday with
the possibility for mixed precipitation Monday morning as a
Pacific weather system and milder airmass move over a cooler
airmass at the surface, but forecast confidence is low. Forecast
models indicate that an active weather pattern will persist
through much of next week, however there remains a lot of
uncertainty regarding timing, precipitation coverage and amounts
with each disturbance. Have increased PoPs to around climo with
temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  46  28  43 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  23  46  26  43 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  22  41  20  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  20  39  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  15  34   8  35 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  25  44  22  44 /   0  10   0  10
HVR  21  40  24  41 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  42  24  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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