Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 130311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
911 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The center of arctic high pressure was near Sioux Falls, SD this
evening. The latest data suggests that the cold high will settle
southeast across the Midwest and then east toward the Ohio Valley
by Saturday night. Some mid-level moisture and deformation located
within the NW flow baroclinic zone has brought some mid clouds
down into NE OK this evening. Model data suggests this will wane
by Saturday morning and the clouds should dissipate. If this
doesn`t occur...overnight lows tonight may be milder across the
north than what is forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High clouds will spread into the area from the northwest.  A
few stratocumulus clouds are noted in southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri...but they are not expected to survive
moving into Oklahoma and Arkansas.  VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours.  Beyond this forecast
time conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate as
moisture increases and deepens over the area head of the
next low pressure system.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A colder airmass will settle across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas tonight into Saturday, but we will see just a glancing
blow of the cold air. An upper level disturbance will result in
some light rain or drizzle late Saturday night into Sunday, and
temperatures may be cold enough for some light freezing rain in
parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Once this system moves out, warm and dry weather will take over
for next week. Model low level temperature progs support near
record high temperatures by next Thursday and Friday, and
increasing winds by that time will also raise the fire danger.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days, then
went at or above all guidance most of next week as is typical with
these cold seaosn warm spells.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   23  47  37  52 /   0   0  20  30
FSM   29  48  32  44 /   0   0  20  40
MLC   28  52  40  53 /   0   0  20  30
BVO   20  45  34  54 /   0   0  20  30
FYV   20  44  29  43 /   0   0  20  40
BYV   18  40  26  41 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   25  49  36  50 /   0   0  20  30
MIO   18  41  31  48 /   0   0  20  40
F10   26  51  39  53 /   0   0  20  30
HHW   33  52  40  55 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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