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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180451
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy valley fog starting to develop across portions of northwest
Arkansas late this evening. Expect fog to continue to increase
with IFR conditions possible towards morning, especially in the
FYV area. Thunderstorm complex to the west will likely begin to
weaken as it approaches late tonight with mainly mid/high clouds
increasing across eastern Oklahoma. Better thunderstorm chances
expected Friday evening/night across NE OK/NW AR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 931 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
We had a dry day for most of the area, which served as a brief
break from the stormy pattern. Severe storms did develop late
this afternoon and evening across the OK/TX panhandles, and will
have to monitor the eastward progress of this convection as it
weakens overnight. At the least, high clouds will increase across
northeast Oklahoma tonight. There is a hint that some rain may
make it to Osage/Pawnee counties before morning, but it should be
light. Some patchy fog is possible as well, given high dewpoints
in the upper 60s/lower 70s and calm winds.

Next upper level wave is noted in water vapor imagery over WY,
and this will encourage a surface low to develop overnight. There
may be a couple of opportunities for storms on Friday - along a
boundary which will lift north across western/northern Oklahoma
during the day, and then from a nocturnal complex which may move
south from KS/MO late Friday night.

Will send a quick update shortly.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12