533
FXUS64 KTSA 051935
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Areas of light to moderate rain will begin to shift northeast
this evening with upper wave. Still a few areas that could see
localized flooding given current rainfall rates. All rivers have
also now fallen below flood stage. As mid/high clouds shift
northeast this evening, patchy dense fog will be possible after
midnight across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and a
dense fog advisory may be needed in a few areas.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Attention quickly turns to Monday with the likelihood of a
significant severe weather event late afternoon/evening in
association with strong upper storm system.

Steep mid level lapse rates overspread warm sector Monday
afternoon in advance of system with modest cap limiting
convective initiation until late afternoon/early evening. Ample
low level moisture will allow MLCAPE values to climb into the
3000-3500 J/kg range by late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma.
As mid level vort max lifts into the northern Plains, upper trough
axis becomes negatively tilted, swinging into the central Plains
by 00Z. In conjunction, 300 mb upper jet streak knifes into
Oklahoma with extreme upper divergence / diffluence developing
over far NE OK/SE KS in association with upper jet couplet. Given
the very strong forcing, there is a slight chance (20%) for an
isolated supercell or two to develop by late afternoon/early
evening in areas northwest of Tulsa with all hazards possible.

More widespread storms/higher end severe threat is expected to move
in from the west by early to mid evening. Still some question on
storm mode evolution, but regardless damaging winds expected
with a few QLCS tornadoes possible given the strong kinematics
expected. Any storms that do remain discrete would have the
potential to produce a strong tornado. Severe threat continues as
storms moves into northwest Arkansas Monday night. In addition,
with the already saturated soil conditions, could see a limited
flash flood threat across NE OK/NW AR.

Behind departing system on Tuesday, a drier air-mass will be in
place as Pacific front moves through far southeast Oklahoma into
the ArkLaTx region. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms could be
possible over aforementioned area, but overall coverage will be
limited.

Severe weather chances ramp back up on Wednesday as another upper
low shifts east out of the northern Rockies and into the northern
Plains. Overall upper level dynamics will not be a strong as
Monday`s system, however a very unstable air-mass will develop
ahead of strong cold front, which is progged to move through the
area during the day. Stronger deep layer shear (50-55 kts) will
support a very large hail / damaging wind threat as broken line of
storms move through southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Wednesday afternoon.

More tranquil / dry conditions are expected for the latter half of
the work week into the weekend. Secondary surge of colder air
filters into the region as surface high builds into the southern
Plains Friday into Saturday. This will provide mild days and cool
nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A bit of a messy aviation forecast through the next 18 to 24
hours. Currently, latest obs around the region show a mixture of
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys, mostly due to light to moderate (and
occasionally heavy) rainfall occurring across the region.
Thunderstorm activity should wind down by mid-late afternoon,
west-to-east, but low cigs will likely hold strong thereafter.
Forecast guidance suggests light fog and periodic LIFR ceilings
developing by or just after midnight tonight. Brief, patchy dense
fog may develop at a couple of sites, but confidence wasn`t high
enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Both cigs and vsbys
should improve after sunrise and into midday Monday, with
south/south-southeast winds prevailing.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  81  59  82 /  10  20  80   0
FSM   63  83  69  86 /  20  20  70  20
MLC   60  83  66  84 /   0  20  60   0
BVO   56  80  54  81 /  10  20  80   0
FYV   58  81  62  83 /  30  20  80  20
BYV   60  80  64  83 /  40  20  80  20
MKO   60  80  65  82 /  10  20  80   0
MIO   58  80  61  80 /  20  10  90  10
F10   59  80  62  83 /  10  20  80   0
HHW   63  80  68  84 /  10  20  50   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67