Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE... CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR LEVELS.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE STEADIER RAIN IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MILES AN HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A VINITA TO BRISTOW LINE.

AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY...A QUICK WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY
WITH MOST PLACES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MOST MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MODEL DISCREPANCIES PROHIBIT GOING WARMER THAN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AT THIS POINT IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IF THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY...SOME 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT
WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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