


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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470 FXUS64 KTSA 141050 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 550 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms probable (20-60% chance) again today; best chances across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Potential for locally heavy rainfall possible. - Rain/storm chances become more spotty and diurnally driven by Tuesday, with the best coverage shifting to the northeast of the area. - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring chances for storms for far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night. - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the end of the week as ridging tries to build in aloft. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Latest satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/MCV continuing to shift eastward over southwest MO/northwest AR. Another MCV was observed via satellite, just southwest of the DFW metro, drifting northeastward. This MCV is expected to drift across northeast TX and along the Red River overnight tonight (and eventually over western AR later in the day) and will likely result in additional shower/thunderstorm activity near the Red River after midnight and through the early morning hours this morning. Weak troughing/lower heights will remain present over the forecast area today, courtesy of the MCV lifting northeast out of Texas, sandwiched between two upper-level highs centered over the southern CA coast and northern Gulf coast. At the surface, a weak and ill- defined stationary frontal boundary will meander near the I-44 corridor through the daytime. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again once daytime heating gets going. Best chances (30-60%) should remain along and south of I- 44, where the best moisture and highest PWATs (1.75-2.00 inches) remain present. Not really anticipating much in the way of severe storms at this time, though a few may potentially become strong. But if storms are able to cluster and/or train, heavy rainfall will become likely and may lead to flooding/flash flooding. It`s worth noting that the overall flooding potential should be isolated and localized, if the potential arises, and widespread flooding/flash flooding is not expected. Otherwise, another unseasonably cool mid- July day, albeit slightly warmer than yesterday, underneath a mixture of sun and clouds is expected across eastern OK and northwest AR, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 80s. Lastly, patchy fog may develop a few hours before sunrise this morning, specifically across northeast OK and northwest AR. Widespread dense fog isn`t anticipated at this time. Any fog that develops will lift and erode by mid-morning. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Precipitation chances will continue to decrease and shift eastward beginning tonight and on Tuesday as mid/upper-level ridging from the Gulf begins to retrograde over the Southern Plains and the deep moisture axis shifts eastward. Cannot completely rule out a few spotty showers/storms (20-30% chance) south and and east of I-44 during the daytime Tuesday, but most locations should remain dry. A weak cold front will approach the area sometime on Thursday, which models have slowed down over the past few runs. The front will likely stall north of the forecast area sometime on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the frontal boundary and may impact northern portions of the CWA Thursday into Thursday night. Better details will come in later forecast updates. The aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge will shift westward over the Plains late in the week and into the upcoming weekend, substantially decreasing precipitation chances and increasing temperatures. Overall, temperatures will gradually increase each day through the long-term, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected by Thursday or Friday. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A few isolated showers and storms will be possible at times today. The best chance will be the next few hours, and this afternoon. Precipitation will focus across northwest AR and southeast OK. Any storm will be capable of very heavy rainfall and lightning. Ceilings will gradually come up today, and break up by this evening for most locations. A few areas of patchy fog will diminish by mid morning. Winds will remain light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 72 92 76 / 10 10 20 10 FSM 86 73 91 75 / 50 30 30 10 MLC 86 72 91 74 / 40 20 30 10 BVO 88 69 92 73 / 10 0 10 10 FYV 83 69 88 72 / 40 20 30 10 BYV 83 69 88 71 / 50 20 30 10 MKO 85 71 90 73 / 30 10 30 10 MIO 86 70 90 73 / 20 10 20 10 F10 86 71 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 HHW 86 71 90 73 / 40 30 30 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...06