Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 252352
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated TSRA over ern OK at this time expected to become more
widespread overnight as a disturbance over srn KS rotates into the
area. Greatest potential for aviation impacts due to TSRA will be at
ern OK TAF sites, with a lower chance at nwrn AR sites. VFR will
prevail outside of this activity, except a period of MVFR
visibilities in light fog is likely to develop at nwrn AR TAF sites
06-15z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 303 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection this afternoon continues across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas along an outflow boundary laid down from the
morning complex that mostly lingered across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri. With little in the way of upper
support...expect this convection to decrease this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Subtle trough axis just north of the area
may touch off additional convection later tonight and tomorrow
morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Have
opted to scale back from guidance pops...but overall kept the same
geographical alignment. Highest pops will be across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas as morning convection
translates southeast...and/or additional convection develops along
any outflow boundaries. Daily chances for thunder will continue
for pretty much the rest of the forecast cycle as the upper ridge
retrogrades to the west. Slightly improved northwest flow becomes
established by the end of the week...which may result in an MCS
impacting parts of northeast OKlahoma and northwest Arkansas
Friday night into Saturday. For the tail end of the forecast
cycle...ECMWF keeps the region in northwest flow...while broad
mid level height rises are noted over the plains. Will keep low
pops going area wide through the weekend. Have gone a little above
guidance for high temperatures in a few early periods...Otherwise
stayed fairly close for the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69



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