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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281658
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Heights of ongoing low cloudiness should lift above MVFR levels by
early afternoon, with at least scattered low clouds persisting
through sunset. Additional low clouds are likely to develop by mid
morning tomorrow, especially across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Gusty southerly winds will continue through early
afternoon, redeveloping by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1045 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Moisture is making a return to the region today under the
influence of stronger southerly winds, with dew points in the 70s
across most of eastern Oklahoma and the mid and upper 60s in
northwest Arkansas. With temperatures likely to be just above
normal this afternoon, the increased moisture will push heat index
values into the mid, and possibly, upper 90s across most of the
area. Heat index values of this level are not climatologically
odd, but given the recent cooler and drier conditions, impacts
from this heat and humidity could still occur if appropriate
precautions are not taken. Minor updates were made to increase
high temperatures a couple of degrees in far northeast Oklahoma
and also to the sky cover trends in southeast Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 607 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Southerly sfc winds gusting around 25kts across most sites
from mid morning through afternoon...especially the NE OK sites.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Breezy southerly winds will advect warmer and more humid air north
into the area today and Thursday. A cold front is still forecast
to move into the area Friday and linger in the vicinity through
the weekend. Initial showers and storms may organize into an MCS
and move southeast into the area Thursday night, which may help
shove the effective boundary farther south. The frontal boundary
washes out by early next week, but most models show an upper level
disturbance dropping southeast into the area in the Monday-Tuesday
time frame, so shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into
next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22