Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 262317
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions to start the forecast period will deteriorate
through the evening as low level moisture increases from the
south. Most locations will see MVFR ceilings develop after 06z
with some IFR visibility possible across NW AR. No significant
improvement in ceilings is anticipated through 00z Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A warm front is developing south of the Red River with increasing
warm air advection. In addition...a shortwave trough is crossing
the desert southwest...and this may provide some support for
showers and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening
across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A few storms are
already developing across southwest AR.

Will add some fog mention in NW Arkansas...as that area has
remained under clouds all day and some locations received some
light rain this morning. With increasing dewpoints
overnight...low clouds will develop along with patchy fog.

Upper flow becomes increasingly southwest on Monday ahead of a
positive tilt upper trough now moving south along the West Coast.
At the surface...a warm front will lift north across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Monday night with low end chances
for showers or isolated thunder. The better chance for
thunderstorms may be Monday evening across Arkansas with
increasing elevated instability.

Tuesday will bring a chance for showers and storms...some of which
could become severe. There is a more conditional threat on Tuesday
afternoon...based on cap strength and ability to lift a parcel to
its LFC. Surface cold front will move through northeast Oklahoma
late Tuesday into early Wed morning with scattered
showers/thunderstorms and severe wind gusts possible along the
convective line.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend...with most areas
remaining above freezing tonight...and 60s/70s for Monday and
Tuesday. Raised Tue morning lows a few degrees based on expected warm
frontal position and latest guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  66  55  78 /  10  20  10  10
FSM   42  67  53  77 /  50  30  10  30
MLC   43  69  58  78 /  20  30  10  20
BVO   32  65  48  78 /  10  20  10  10
FYV   36  64  53  75 /  20  20  10  30
BYV   38  61  53  74 /  30  20  20  30
MKO   43  68  54  76 /  10  20  10  20
MIO   36  65  53  76 /  10  20  10  20
F10   45  67  55  78 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   50  68  58  78 /  50  30  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14


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