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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
MINOR HOURLY GRID TWEAKS TO KEEP CURRENT.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE DRIEST AIR IS LAGGING THE WIND
SHIFT SOME WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO VERY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY LINE. THESE COULD PERSIST
PAST SUNRISE...BUT PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS PRIMARILY CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING
THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TODAY
BEGINS YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN PLACING AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO OUTSIDE OF IT...LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 412...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURE
WISE...RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS ON THURSDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO 70 AT ALL. WILL NOT GO THAT DRASTIC IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST QUITE YET THOUGH.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DURING
THE WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   89  65  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   87  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   84  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   86  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20
F10   89  65  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   92  67  89  68 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20