Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTWC 140413
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY. MODEST HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE / EAST COAST TROUGH REDEVELOP WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...BUT BY MID
WEEK NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/06Z.
NO ISSUES WITH ONLY THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 12
KTS...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WEAK NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
THAT WILL PASS THRU THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY 2-4 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
FEBRUARY.

ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OFF CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DESERT SW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD FEBRUARY WARMTH. 12Z ECMWF 850-700 MB
THICKNESS VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY IN TUCSON WHEN THE HIGH WAS 87. THUS WITH THAT IN MIND
UPPED WEDNESDAY HIGHS A DEGREE.

TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES THRU THE
WRN CONUS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
UNDER STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.