Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 302122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT HOTTER DAYTIME A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SONORA MEXICO
FROM LAST NIGHT WAS HELPING TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINED RATHER LIGHT SO MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
LAST VERY LONG PAST SUNSET THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATED THAT
SLIGHTLY MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE AND FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICTED A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DRYING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
WEATHER REGIME SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEST
OF KTUS THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
EXPECT A FEW TO BROKEN CUMULOFORM CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT AGL AT OTHER TIMES.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO LOCALES
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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