Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 282125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 PM MST Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system across west central New Mexico
will bring isolated light showers to areas mainly east of Safford to
Douglas line into this evening. Dry conditions with a warming trend
will occur Wednesday into Thursday. The next system will bring
another chance of showers mainly northeast of Tucson Friday through


.DISCUSSION...Wrap around moisture on back side of upper low moving
through west central NM this afternoon. Isolated showers/high
elevations snow showers for the remainder of the afternoon hours
into early this evening, mainly east of a Safford to Douglas line.
Gusty northwest winds this afternoon will diminish this evening.

Dry NWLY flow aloft on Wednesday becoming WLY on Thursday which will
result in warmer high temperatures both days. Highs on Thursday will
be the warmest in the upcoming 7 day forecast period.

The next Pacific storm will impact the area Friday thru Sunday.
Models pretty similar on moving closed low into northern Arizona on
Friday with resultant increase in pressure gradient across the area
which will produce breezy to windy conditions. Uncertainties exist
on timing of cold front passage, which will have impact on daytime
highs and then the amount of moisture this system will have or will
briefly pick up from the Gulf of California. At this time, have
relegated the slight chance PoPs to areas NE of Tucson, but can`t
rule out further areal coverage. I say this due to ECMWF producing
some light QPF Friday morning/afternoon while the GFS/GFS ensembles
remain dry. Something for later shifts to monitor. Highs on Friday
will be well below normal to close out March.

Unsettled conditions over the first weekend of April as several
disturbances aloft drop down eastern Arizona on the back side of the
upper low as it moves to the east. Again the best chances at this
time appear to be NE of Tucson. Warmer to end the weekend into early
next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z.
Isolated -SHRA thru 29/03z relegated to areas east of a KSAD-KDUG.
Otherwise expect SKC to SCT clouds 6-10k ft AGL. Sfc wind wly/nwly
12-25 kts with gusts to near 35 kts thru 29/03z. The strongest
speeds will be east of KTUS. Sfc wind then diminishing to less than
10 kts aft 29/03z with direction terrain driven. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to locally windy conditions will diminish
this evening. Afternoon breezes will continue Wednesday and Thursday
along with warmer temperatures. Another weather system will then
move in late Friday with gusty winds. Red flag conditions possible
Friday afternoon across far southern fire weather zone 152. This
system will also bring a chance of showers mainly northeast of
Tucson Friday through Sunday.





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