Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 021621
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DRY MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY
WILL DEEPEN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST COAST. SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED FROM A WEAKENING HRCN ANDRES AND
SPREAD TOWARD NRN BAJA BY LATE THE DAY. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY.

THURSDAY...WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NR FRISCO. THIS WILL INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE STATE WILL MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANDRES MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS
BEING ON THE DRY SIDE...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE HIGH BASED. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON LATEST 06Z/12Z MODEL
DATA THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WRN PIMA
COUNTY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS IDEA IN
MIND IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODEL FAIRLY SIMILAR ON PLACING UPPER
LOW OVER THE LA BASIN WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT INCREASING OVER THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW BEST DYNAMICS BEING WEST OF
TUCSON CLOSER TO THE LOW. WILL LIKELY MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO
THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

WILL WRITE ABOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK PART OF THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION AFTER ALL 12Z MODEL/ENSEMBLE
DATA HAS ARRIVED. SURE LOOKS INTERESTING WITH RESPECTS TO POSSIBLE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM TS BLANCA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z. CLR. SFC WINDS MAINLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW-NW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS MAINLY
FOR KDUG AFTER 02/19Z. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME LESS THAN 10
KTS AFTER 03/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AT OTHER TIMES.

THEREAFTER...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THIS EXPECTED
INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THE FORECAST OF
RAINFALL PROBABILITY...COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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