Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  THIS...ALONG
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL COMBINE TO
USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH THE FIRST OF A SHORT SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
OVER NEW MEXICO AND A SECOND STRONGER ONE OVER SE UTAH/NE ARIZONA.
THE DECENT NW FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SECOND WAVE WITH W TO NW WINDS SURFACING THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST AREAS
TUCSON WESTWARD WILL HAVE 10-15 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S
WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL PUSH 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY...SAFFORD EASTWARD...MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO
THE UPPER 20S WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE OTHER ASPECT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER
AIR.  MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS THE SW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A
THIRD SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WILL TURN THE FLOW TO
NLY AND USHER IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS.  ALL THIS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PUSH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF SE ARIZONA EAST OF
TUCSON...AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD FREEZING TEMPS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE TUCSON AREA WILL DROP IN THE MID 30S WITH A
POTENTIAL OF BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DEPENDING ON WIND AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  WHILE IN TOWN MAY
NOT HIT FREEZING MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS LIKELY
WILL.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MORNING LOWS
INCLUDING BELOW FREEZING IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA.  IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW EARLY ANY EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT IT
MAY END UP BEING THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.  WILL
LOOK INTO THIS TODAY AND ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE SW AS IT
STEADILY DEAMPLIFIES.  EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES IT WILL STILL PROMOTE A STRONG WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINTAIN THAT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU 24/18Z. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING W/NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS EAST OF KTUS AND 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS THRU 24/02Z. GENERALLY E/SE SURFACE WINDS
RELAXING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS AT
10 KFT OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU 24/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED UPPER GILA VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL...HOWEVER FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AND AROUND SAFFORD THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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