Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
081 FNUS73 KBIS 121853 FWSBIS Spot Forecast for DU 28...USFWS National Weather Service Bismarck ND 153 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 13. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Clear skies at the time of ignition will become partly cloudy through the late morning and afternoon on Monday. The relative humidity at the time of ignition is forecast around 55%, decreasing to a minimum of around 30% during the afternoon. Expect increasing chances for precipitation through the afternoon and evening, with an isolated thunderstorm possible during the afternoon. Southeasterly winds between 9 to 12 miles per hour are expected, but may become influenced by the lake during the afternoon and through the evening. In that case, westerly winds between 10 to 15 miles per hour would be expected during that period, with gusts up to 20 miles per hour at time. Where thunderstorms do develop, gusty and erratic winds should be anticipated. .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny becoming partly cloudy through the afternoon. CWR.................0 percent. Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........30 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph. May become westerly and strengthen to 10 to 15 mph during the early afternoon through the early afternoon due to the influence of the lake. Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (63300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........11 22 17 19 24 24 28 31 35 30 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............47 51 55 59 62 65 67 68 69 70 RH..............63 56 51 44 39 37 34 32 31 30 20 FT wind dir..E SE SE SE SE SE W W W W 20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 9 9 9 12 13 14 15 20 FT wind gust.14 14 12 13 13 13 14 16 20 20 Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.2 1.5 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 4.7 Transp wind dir.E SE SE SE SE S S S S S Transp wind spd.14 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Dispr kt-ft/1K..10 12 16 23 33 44 50 57 63 63 .MONDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of rain showers overnight. CWR.................9 percent. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2. Min temperature.....Around 49. Max humidity........68 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (62400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (7900 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........26 41 41 51 67 82 Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10 Chc of pcpn (%).0 20 20 20 50 50 LAL.............1 2 2 2 2 2 Temp............71 67 58 56 54 51 RH..............30 37 49 50 53 61 20 ft wind......W 14 W 14 SE 13 SE 16 SE 17 SE 16 20 ft wind gust.17 18 20 25 26 22 Mix hgt (ft)....4500 3100 500 600 700 700 Transport wind..S 16 SE 16 E 17 SE 20 SE 20 SE 18 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 3 Dispr kt-ft/1K..62 44 8 10 11 11 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the day. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. CWR.................9 percent increasing to 62 percent. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................2. Max temperature.....Around 66. Min humidity........54 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 21 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15000 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (52300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........87 83 81 90 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CWR.............10 30 30 60 Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 50 70 LAL.............2 2 2 2 Temp............49 53 60 63 RH..............67 63 55 56 20 FT wind......SE 15G21 SE 14G20 S 13G20 S 12G18 Mix hgt (ft)....900 1500 2500 2800 Transport wind..S 20 SE 20 SE 21 SE 21 Haines index....3 3 3 3 Dispr kt-ft/1K..15 26 45 50 $$ Forecaster...ADAM Requested by...Dustin mireles Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413824.0/BIS .DELDT 05/12/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Dustin_mireles@fws.gov