Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
175
FNUS73 KBIS 100946
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Nelson Prairie North...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
446 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mild, breezy, and dry conditions will be found across the fire area today.
High clouds could filter in and out all day. A weak front this morning will
bring breezy northwest winds this afternoon. Humidity values could drop
to around 24 percent this afternoon as well. Winds go on a diminishing
trend this evening before becoming southwest tonight. Warm temperatures
will then be found on Saturday, with afternoon humidity values once again
in the mid to upper 20s. Southwest winds will become a west wind, and may
be breezy in the afternoon. An isolated shower is possible Saturday afternoon
and evening, although chances at this time are around 10 percent.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph this morning increasing 12 to 18 mph
with gusts to around 25 mph this afternoon.
Mixing height.......9400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 28
mph with a few higher gusts in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (98200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (182400
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6 9 12 16 21 14 18 15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............57 61 64 67 69 69 69 69
RH..............52 42 33 29 26 24 24 24
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..12 13 15 16 17 17 16 16
20 FT wind gust.19 20 22 24 25 25 24 24
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 4.9 7.9 9.3 9.4 9.3 8.9 8.8
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.15 23 26 28 28 28 25 25
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..19 98 182 223 225 223 196 195
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 15 mph with gusts to
around 22 mph in the early evening, then becoming light
and variable around or shortly after sunset. Winds then
becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph after 0000.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph becoming north 6 to 12
mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
west around 5 mph late in the evening shifting
to the southwest 6 to 12 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (178600 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to very good (144800 knot-ft) late
in the night decreasing to poor (1600 knot-ft)
early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........11 11 10 9 13 19 26 32 39 40 44 39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............70 68 65 59 56 54 52 50 49 47 47 46
RH..............24 26 30 40 45 48 52 56 58 63 65 68
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW W SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..15 12 9 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 7
20 FT wind gust.22 19 14 9 6 5 7 9 9 11 12 11
Mix hgt (kft)...8.5 7.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW N N N W SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.24 22 13 8 6 5 6 8 9 10 10 12
Haines index....5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..179 145 13 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming partly sunny.
CWR.................Less than 5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
west 12 to 18 mph with gusts to around 24 mph
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 22 mph with a few higher gusts
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (79500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (115200
knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
excellent (157800 knot-ft) in the afternoon in
the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........36 49 70 49
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............46 58 73 79
RH..............71 55 37 27
20 FT wind......SW 8G12 W 10G15 W 13G20 W 16G24
Mix hgt (ft)....400 900 4300 7600
Transport wind..SW 13 W 16 W 22 W 22
Haines index....4 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..4 13 80 146
$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...D. Marsden
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413653.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dominic_marsden@fws.gov