Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
320 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Cloud trends and fog remain the primary forecast challenges. As of
3 AM this morning, clouds covered most of the FA, but low clouds
will be the bigger story. These low clouds started out across the
southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota, and they
have since expanded to all areas south of a line from Cooperstown
to Grand Forks North Dakota over toward the Upper and Lower Red
Lakes in Minnesota. These will continue to expand northward
through sunrise. There is also some fog, with patches around
Crookston and Thief River Falls, and more from Gwinner to
Cooperstown. With the cloud cover, not expecting this fog to get
dense, but it could expand to other areas too. Like yesterday,
these clouds held for much of the day and therefore limited the
temperature rise. Today, the clouds could be even thicker and last
longer. Therefore after coordinating with adjacent offices,
lowered high temperatures. This may not even be enough if the
clouds hold all day. The surface wind flow remains very weak today
into tonight, so will likely be dealing with the same issues
throughout. However, they will help to hold up temperatures

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Same story continues Monday through Tuesday night, in regard to
the weak surface flow. This will make forecasting day to day
cloud trends difficult. Will need sun to hit the expected highs,
which may not be easy to figure out more than day to day. Despite
the cloud and temperature issues, not expecting any pcpn.

Split flow will continue over the CONUS with several shortwaves
flanking a short wave ridge in the northern stream. The first of
these will affect the forecast area Wed with the standard early
morning mixed pcpn followed by rain. The ridging should provide dry
and rather mild weather for Thu into Fri. Meanwhile a pair of closed
lows will trek more slowly through the southern stream. There are
signs the second of these will lift a bit farther north creating
pcpn chances in tandem with the northern short wave for Sat. As
mentioned, temps will continue to be warm for late March with
perhaps a bit of a cool down for the end of the period with approach
and passage of a cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate to IFR/LIFR cigs at
most sites over the next few hours and remain so through much of
the morning. Expect MVFR and IFR, perhaps LIFR, vsbys near KDVL
and KBJI this morning. Cannot rule out MFVR/IFR fog in the Red
River valley area as well, given the high clouds and light winds
tonight. Expect conditions to gradually improve to VFR around mid
day from west to east.




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