Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 240447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN FRESHENING UP GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN WORKING INTO THE AREA STEADILY THIS EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO EXIST PRIMARILY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
EAST TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. THE NAM AND SREF MODELS ARE BOTH A LITTLE ON THE
DRY SIDE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE WETTER. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH NEXT UPDATE IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
MANY HAZARDS TO WORRY ABOUT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...AND A PIECE OF CIRCULATION WILL SPLIT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS. CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH PAST THE MID 50S. ON
WEDNESDAY...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST (WITH THE
EASTERN FA MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE DAY). MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN FA TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A
WARMER AIRMASS BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD
WILL START OUT DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE STILL OVER THE FA. COLD
FRONT IS POISED JUST TO THE NW OF THE FA AND SHOULD SLIDE INTO
NORTHERN AREAS SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH SAT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO
SAT NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RIDGING RETURNS
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MILD TEMPS. NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHES
MON NIGHT INTO TUE SPREADING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE TAFS FOR THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HRS. MODELS INDICATE KDVL WILL START TO SCATTER OUT
FIRST...BY LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. KBJI WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE
THE CLOUD DECK...AND THE NAM HINTS THAT THE DECK MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...LIGHT SHOWERS STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE EASTERN SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.