Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON



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