Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 30 MPH NOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WILL BUMP UP WINDS JUST A TAD MORE IN THIS AREA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF OUR WESTERN FA TOO AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE VALLEY SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN AN HOUR
OR SO...WHILE THE FAR EAST WILL TAKE THE LONGEST. WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNT OF SUN WILL ALSO RAISE HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
ACROSS THE WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES. ONE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...AND WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
PROVIDE STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO NE
ND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK...AND ONLY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING (FOR MAINLY NE ND). WITH THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH...AND COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE
WILL APPROACH...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER ON TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
OCCUR PAST PEAK HEATING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH MODEL INDICATING 850MB
COMPUTED CAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NEAR
40 KNOTS). THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF ANY SVR WX WILL HINGE ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE MID- LEVEL LOW. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACK WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES (GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC TYPE FORCING EXPECTED).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY/COOL
AIRMASS WILL SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
LONG WAVE PATTERN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AFTER DAY 5. LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST DESPITE THE LATEST
ECMWF WAS NOT IN YET. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING WITH FASTER
SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREE FOR THU AND FRI. LITTLE
CHANGE TO SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS CLOUDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 6000 FT AND UP
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES
BEFORE SETTLING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT A FEW OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
BRING IN SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. THINK THAT LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO JUST INCLUDED
SOME HIGHER MVFR AT KDVL FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO START MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS MORNING...WITH SOME THUNDER NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THINK THE BETTER THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD SO JUST INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT THE WESTERN THREE
TAF SITES FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR



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