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000
FXUS63 KFGF 241155
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AS THICK CIRRUS HAS STARTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED SEVERAL SITES TO START
COMING UP FROM SOME FAIRLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
BREEZY AND THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING BUT WILL STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME BETTER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES GETTING TO AROUND AN
INCH BY 00Z. THE MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP
ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
RAP ARE RATHER ANEMIC ON COVERAGE AND QPF. GIVEN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DECENT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SFC THAT NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME...KEPT SCATTERED POPS BUT LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE
DRIER SOLUTION AS FAR AS AMOUNTS.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AND EVEN THE DRIER MODELS PICK UP ON QPF AS THE BOUNDARY ENTERS
WESTERN MN OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AT ALL SO MOSTLY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
CAPE BRUSHING THE AREA SO WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTH INTO WY/WESTERN NEB. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR WEST. THERE ALSO DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALOFT OR AT THE
SFC. THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY APPROACHING THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT 20-30 POP MENTION BUT
THINK THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THINK THAT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP COOLER 850MB TEMPS IN AND A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT AND IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE TO OUR WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT HIGHER CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

MEMORIAL DAY TO THURSDAY...WITH A TYPICAL SPRING TIME 500MB
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP...WILL HAVE PERIODIC CHC OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH WEAK...DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN THIS TIME
FRAME...SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. A STRONGER MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY TO BRING A MORE WIDE SPREAD AREA AND HIGHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S...NEAR END OF MAY NORMALS...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KDVL AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE OTHER TAF SITES AFTER 00Z. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT NECHE ALONG THE PEMBINA
RIVER. OTHER RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN AT PEMBINA...DRAYTON AND
OSLO ON THE MAINSTEM RED...AS WELL AS HALLOCK...GRAFTON...DILWORTH
AND SABIN.

FARGO...MINTO AND WALHALLA ARE TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE
WARNINGS AT THOSE POINTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND THE STAGE IS
CURRENTLY BELOW 15.5 FEET AND CONTINUES TO FALL.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...EASTERN
CAVALIER...AND WALSH COUNTIES. THE MAIN SURGE OF WATER IS NOW INTO
CENTRAL PEMBINA AND WALSH COUNTIES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER. WATER LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RENWICK DAM ON THE TONGUE RIVER. WATER
REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THE DAM SITE AND IS BEING HELD BACK BY A
CONSTRUCTED EARTHEN LEVEE ON TOP OF THE DAM STRUCTURE. AT THIS
TIME...OFFICIALS NOTE THE TEMPORARY LEVEE ON TOP OF THE RENWICK DAM
REMAINS STABLE AND WILL STILL BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...LAKE RENWICK
HAS BEEN SLOWLY RECEDING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...WATER HAS
STOPPED FLOWING OVER THE EMERGENCY SPILLWAYS AT MOST OF THE
RETENTION DAMS WEST OF THE RENWICK DAM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...HOPPES