Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260303
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A BIT MORE THINNING/CLEARING OF THE STRATOCU IS OCCURRING THAN
ANTICIPATED. THUS REDUCED SKY SOME. HOWEVER AIRMASS HAS
CONSIDERABLE 850 MB MOISTURE SO EXPECT CLOUD PATCHES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. LEFT LOW TEMPS ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAST THE WIND SPEEDS DIE DOWN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE KBJI TO LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION
SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. WINDS ARE STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS BECOMING MORE MARGINAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE KDVL REGION...SO MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW
COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FROM THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SEEING SOME SUN NOW FROM THE VALLEY AND WEST WITH MORE
CLOUDS HOLDING EAST OF THE VALLEY. PLAN ON KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS. WIND SPEEDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
QUESTION IS THEN HOW MUCH CLEARING HOLDS AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT
TEMPS. CLOUD COVER REMAINS AN ISSUE INTO THU TOO. IF IT STAYS
MOSTLY SUNNY TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO REBOUND QUICKER/HIGHER THAN IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVES ACROSS THE WESTERN FA ON FRI AND MAY
LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS FINALLY BEGIN A
LITTLE BIT MORE OF A RISE ON SAT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THRU WED...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE VALLEY SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. SAT
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL MANITOBA SFC LOW
MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS TIMING...WITH THE GFS PROGGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE 00Z TO 06Z SUN TIME FRAME AND THE ECMWF 6
HOURS SLOWER. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND MODEL SUPPORTS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE QPF IS
IN AN AREA WITH THICKNESS VALUES EXCEEDING THE 540 DAM
THRESHOLD...INDICATING RAIN...WITH A MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER
NERN ND. VALUES DO QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP FIELD...SO
AREAS TO THE EAST COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETS UP ...WITH A FEW MINOR VORTS
MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE A CANADIAN ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE SETS UP TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON SFC PATTERN
FOR A MID WEEK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR STRATOCU TVF-BJI AREA TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WILL
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY VFR BASED STRATOCU THIS EVENING. REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND TAF SITES TO SEE VFR CLOUD BASES IN THE 4-6K
FT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLEARING PATCHES. BETTER
CLEARING POTENTIAL POST 12Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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