Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241248
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR FORECAST.

WEAK RADAR RETURNS/-SN METAR REPORTS CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF POPS VS FLURRIES
NEEDED. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS FA TODAY. AT SAME
TIME UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADA PRAIRIE
PROVINCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NOSE OF THIS FEATURE CLOSE
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW THIS AFTERNOON FROM VALLEY WEST
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE FAR WEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES PRETTY STEADY TODAY AND CONTINUED MILD TONIGHT.

NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING NORTHERN FRINGE OF DEVELOPING SNOW BAND IN ZONE OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEPER LAYERED RH ALONG ND/SD
BORDER AREA. ELSEWHERE COOL DOWN STARTS WITH STEADY COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

TROUGH DEEPENS AND PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM HOWEVER MAIN ENERGY
REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SNOW CHANCES TO
S-SE TIER OF COUNTIES. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL SAG SE OF THE
FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
OVERALL...THIS PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY DRY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE UP TOWARDS ALASKA AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C BY TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE 0 OVER PARTS OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOR THE MOST PART CIGS HOLDING IN IFR/LIFR RANGE WITH ISOLATED AREAS
INTO LOW MVFR. LIFTED CIGS TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT HIGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






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