Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 262342
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK



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