Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Made some further adjustments to cloud cover, but no further

UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Made some further updates to tweak cloud cover. Clouds have been
hanging on across much of the east although there are some sucker
holes. The west has been clearing out a bit more other than along
a Cooperstown to Fargo line, but there is more cloud cover visible

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Adjusted sky cover for the band of clouds that lingers from
northwest to southeast across the CWA with some clearing in the
north. Think that the clouds linger over at least part of the area
this evening although there could be some clearing in the north.
Will keep the lows in the upper 20s to low 30s for now as there
could be some clearing later tonight but will adjust as needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Weather impacts over the 24 hours will be minimal with cloud
cover and their effect on temperatures the main forecast
challenge. Will see a chance for a few light rain or snow showers
in Lake of the Woods area as a weak back door cold front clips
the FA`s far NE zones Thursday morning. SFC ridge to slowly move
across the FA during the daytime Thursday with max and min temps
highly dependent on cloud cover. Clearer areas tonight will drop
into the 20s versus areas that maintain cloud cover to see temps
into the 30s. Some sun is expected across the southwestern half of
the FA where max temps approach 50 for Thursday afternoon,
elsewhere clouds will keep temps in the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The Thursday night through Saturday night period will mainly feature
zonal flow, but toward the end of this period the 500mb ridge does
begin to amplify over the Rockies. The models seem to agree that a
couple of short waves will move through the FA and affect areas
mainly along the Canadian border. The first wave moves through
Friday and Friday night, while the second wave comes through
Saturday and Saturday night. Low temps look to stay above freezing
both nights, so pcpn type should stay in liquid form. Highs on
Friday look warmer than Thursday and are near normal, while on
Saturday they should be back to above normal levels.

The 500mb ridge continues to build over the high plains on Sunday,
with the models slightly different with timing and placement of a
short wave that mainly affects areas along the Canadian border. The
ECMWF is fastest and Canadian is the slowest, but guidance appears
to be following closer to the ECMWF. Therefore there are low pcpn
chances in the northeast FA yet on Sunday. The 500mb ridge shifts to
the east and over the FA on Monday, keeping it dry. As this ridge
continues east on Tuesday and Wednesday, model differences become
larger. For the most part it appears that southwest flow could set
up, although there are hints that another low will track across
southern Canada and play into this as well. At the surface, models
show the potential for a Colorado Low lifting up into
Minnesota/Wisconsin, but they also have some pcpn associated with
the southern Canada low as well. So there is a potential for the
Colorado Low to be more of a split system, and not quite as strong.
Temps through the Sunday through Wednesday period look to stay
slightly above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Portions of the western forecast area have cleared out, but more
clouds are coming in from the west. Like most of the ceilings
today, obs over central ND are mostly in the 3500-5000 ft range.
Think that MVFR ceilings will stay to the north around Lake of the
Woods, with the TAF sites remaining VFR although on the lower end
at times. Winds will become light and variable, with some south
winds picking up at KDVL tomorrow evening.




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