Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
107 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Temps adjusted down a few degrees in the RRV due to clouds, and
tweeked some pops a bit and a bit higher pops in band of rain just
west of Grand Forks.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Water vapor loop indicated the upper level low was located
over the SD/ND/MN border with the upper level jet on the
east side of the trough. Dry slot was located over much of
MN, IA and WI. However some cooling was noted over northwest
MN. Radar indicated narrow bands of precip was moving north
over northwest MN. Otherwise main deformation zone was over
much of eastern ND and far northwest MN and wraps into
eastern SD. Expect deformation zone to remain about in the
same place for the day and weaken Sun night.

Vort lobe was located over western IA and will rotate
around upper low on Mon. System will produce light precip
for Mon and Mon night over the eastern/northeastern zones.
Upper low will open up and shift east of the area by Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Wednesday to next Saturday night will begin with 500mb ridging
between departing trough over the Great Lakes and the next wave
crossing the Northern Rockies. This will bring southwest flow to the
area and allow temperatures to warm into the low 70s for daytime
highs through the period. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and the
first half of Thursday before the lead short wave brings a SFC
trough across the area within the southwesterly flow aloft. Friday
and Saturday will continue to see precip chances with Pwats in the
three quarters to one inch range. Placement and timing will depend
on the position of the vort maxes pinwheeling around the upper low.
Model guidance keep the upper low center north of the International
border and with it the most persistent lift or more predictable
steady rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Upper low will wobble over Minnesota through Monday. This will
maintain low level moisture and lowest ceilings east of the Red
River with IFR and low end MVFR. RRV will see MVFR with psbl low
end VFR at times. DVL on the edge between MVFR/VFR and should go
more VFR as we progress into tonight/Monday. North winds continue
10 to 20 kts.




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