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000
FXUS63 KFGF 220746
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
246 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Current convection moving into the valley region will continue to
propagate east with overall weakening trend. Current timing would
have pcpn exiting the FA by mid morning but will monitor and
adjust accordingly.

Upper low will continue to propagate east along the international
border region today. Associated surface boundary currently just
west of the valley should clear the forecast area to the east
early this afternoon. Although low level forcing looks to be
lacking, any lingering outflows from current convection could
combine with respectable cold pool with upper low to produce
afternoon convection mainly over the ne FA. With low freezing
levels cannot rule out some marginally severe hailers with
stronger storms. Column begins cooling so not as warm today.
breezy conditions today mainly west of the valley.

As upper low continues to propagate east any lingering showers/T
should be confined to the far ne this evening. Stronger push of
cold advection should allow temperatures to drop off into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Surface high pressure will build into the FA Sunday for dry
conditions. With quite a bit cooler airmass in place highs in the
70s expected.

Surface high shifts east Sunday night setting up increasing return
flow and warm advection keeping temperatures from falling off too
far. Highs should recover back into the 80s Monday from valley
west.

Next wave to track across southern Canada Monday night into
Tuesday for return of rain chances as frontal boundary crosses the
fa.

Tuesday-Friday...Looks like this period will offer a nice stretch of
weather, if you enjoy daytime temperatures near 80F, mainly dry
weather, and relatively light winds. Models in decent agreement with
the large scale pattern which places the forecast area under the
control of SFC high pressure for much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Convective threat appears to be fairly isolated, so only mentioned
some VCTS for now at the TAF sites. If it gets closer can update
with better timing details. Otherwise, fairly low winds until
Saturday day hours. Ceilings should all be VFR, although guidance
is trying to indicate some fog or low clouds around KBJI toward
morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG/Voelker
AVIATION...Godon