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000
FXUS63 KFGF 230008
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Frontal boundary remains in place from Baudettte to east of
Crookston then to just west of Ada to just west of Fargo to near
Lisbon. It is creeping east. Low pressure along it just west of
Fargo if looking at the wind field. Low pressure will move along
boundary toward Thief River Falls/Fosston area 03z period. Airmass
in warm sector with temps 85-90 does have some capping issues, but
of greater importance is seen on water vapor as quite dry air
aloft is spreading over the warm sector as well as near the
surface low itself. Have had a few cells/towers try to get going,
but they were squashed near the boundary NE of Fargo.

So far activity is NW of the front in the DVL basin into Manitoba.
Still wait and see if something can get going in NW MN, and chat
with SPC indicates they are still hanging on to some severe risk.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Primary concern will be severe potential this afternoon and into
this evening along and ahead of warm frontal boundary. Said
boundary currently from surface low vcnty ABR northeastward to FAR
and BJI. CAM guidance all in good agreement in keeping warm sector
dry with capping and best potential along and ahead of warm front
over northern MN. Guidance also in good agreement with convective
initiation occurring around 00z lifting northward through the
evening. Tough to buck CAM guidance being in such good agreement
so adjusted pops/timing accordingly. Certainly enough
instability/cape and shear for severe storms although most likely
will be elevated. If storms can become surface based will have to
watch tor potential with warm front in place. Elsewhere spotty
showers and isolated T continue to organize over the DVL basin
into the northern valley on cold side of boundary. Uncertainty
remains on how far south this convection will get so stuck with
chance pops. Appears strongest storms should lift ne out of the fa
by midnight. A fairly distinct thermal contrast will continue
across the fa with low 40s over the nw to low 60s over the se.

Boundary moves little Saturday with best rain chances vcnty
boundary over the far east into the se corner of ND. With cooler
airmass in place, instability weak so strong storms not
anticipated. Temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s
vcnty boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Region will remain in sw flow aloft with next stronger wave
lifting northeast Saturday night. this will bring more widespread
rain back into a good chuck of the forecast area into Sunday.
Finally looks like system will begin pulling east of the region
Sunday night.

Most guidance is in agreement of pushing the majority of ongoing
rain early Monday east deeper into Minnesota along with the cold
front. This is due to the upper level trough shifting east with a
surface high pressure building into the region from the west. With
the axis of the upper trough east of the area by Tuesday, upper
level flow turns more northwesterly. The GFS propagates a shortwave
trough and an associated cold front through the region Wednesday
sparking a few convective showers, although this scenario is not in
good agreement with other models. Towards Thursday into Friday,
another upper level disturbance and surface low pressure dips into
the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region from Canada providing
rain chances. Questions do remain on how close this disturbance will
move towards the region dictating how great our rain chances will be.

Temperatures will remain cool Monday with a more mild trend towards
midweek with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Winds turned more northwest at GFK and increasing speeds and this
will continue into Saturday with north-northwest wind 15 to 25
kts. Fargo will see the SSE turn southwest and then northwest by
03z. DVL in north-northwest wind into Saturday 15-20kts. TVF NNE
turning NNW and Bemidji area turning more NW but not til late
tonight.

Issue is ceilings overnight as MVFR cigs should spread over most
areas tonight into Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...CJ/BP/Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle