Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1046 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Still seeing some light rain showers north of Devils Lake in North
Dakota. These are slowly lifting northeast and some of the high
resolution models are showing them lifting into southern Canada
by noon. Other model solutions linger them longer and have more
redevelopment by afternoon over southeast ND into west central MN.
At this point will leave the pcpn chances we had going for the
afternoon and see how the echoes progress late this morning. Wind
speeds have come up quickly, with gusts above 30 knots at Fargo
already. Meanwhile, the winds at Devils Lake have lost their
gusts, and may be a little less than further east. The thickest
clouds are right around the showers over the Devils Lake region,
and these may hold down the temperature rise there this afternoon.
Will not make any changes to the temp forecast at this point
either, but may with the next forecast update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Expect the best chances for rain today in the Devils Lake basin and
along and north of US Highway 2 this morning as lower level dry air
gradually saturates under some weak upper impulses and a strong
850mb jet. Additionally small chances for a few light showers will
persist through the day and evening as these disturbances eject out
ahead of the main system, a strong stacked surface/upper low in
southern Saskatchewan. As this system drifts east into Manitoba, the
greater impact today will be breezy southeast winds at 15 to 25
mph and gusts to 35 mph, with the strongest winds in the
afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s today,
inhibited a bit by cloud cover.

For tonight, the surface low will move northeast into central
Manitoba, dragging a weak cold front through the forecast area from
west to east. Small chances of showers will continue along and ahead
of the front overnight. Winds will shift west behind the front,
which should pass the Red River Valley early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

For Friday and Saturday, the aforementioned system over Manitoba
slowly meanders eastward toward the Great Lakes region. With
west/northwest low level flow and forcing behind the front, the
latest model runs suggest mostly dry periods with a mix of clouds
and sun for Friday through Saturday morning. As a weak upper
disturbance moves around the main system Saturday afternoon and
night, slight chances for some isolated light showers return.
Temperatures will be near normal values through the weekend.

For Sunday through Wednesday, split flow over North America
consolidates into northwest flow aloft as short waves roll over
upper level ridge and carve out a trough over eastern North
America during the period. Longwave upper ridge over the west
coast will shift a little east into western North America this
period. A broad longwave trough over the Northern Plains will
sharpen and shift to eastern North America by the end of the
period. However operational models disagree and maintain a split

Upper level low pressure system forecast to be over western Ontario
Sun with short waves rotating around system. Diurnally driven
showers can also be expected for Sun through Tue. Showers will shift
east on Tue as upper low shifts east. An upper level trough over the
Aleutians will roll over the ridge. The upper low will move over the
forecast area about Mon and produce showers.

High temperatures were generally increased one to three degree for
Sun. Little change to Mon. High temps were decreased two to four
degrees for Tue and decreased one to two degrees for Wed.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions expected for much of the upcoming forecast period.
Some potential for MVFR cigs near BJI overnight with some showers
but confidence is low at this time. Southeast winds will be
sustained at 10 to 20 kts today with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds
will begin to diminish this evening and will shift to the west
overnight as a front passes through.




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