Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251735
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS MORE WEAK CONVECTION HAS
POSSPED UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND STARTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS STARTED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT JUST WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP. THINK THAT SOME SPOTS COULD
STILL APPROACH 90 AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO GO UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN GOING OVER THE TOP OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. BUMPED UP POPS TO SCATTERED IN THIS AREA AND HAVE IT MOVING
EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SO FAR IT IS MOSTLY SHOWERS BUT
SOME LIGHTNING IS NOT OF THE QUESTION WITH 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE. THINK THAT THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL NOT KEEP US FROM
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER NORTHWESTERN SD IS RESULTING IN
CIRRUS BLOW OFF SPREADING ACROSS SRN ND AND INTO SWRN ZONES. WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER FOR MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO PATCHY
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN VALLEY MORE BKN THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...AND WILL ADJUST SKY FOR THIS REGION AS WELL. HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTH. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD ANY POPS OTHER THAN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND. PREFER HIGHER RES MODELS FOR
PRECIP TRENDS THIS EVENING. A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING CALM WINDS TO MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHILE WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN VALLEY TO INCLUDE FAR NORTHWESTERN MN.

THIS MORNING...CALM WINDS...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS W CNTRL MN. HAVE PUT
PATCHY FOG INTO FCST THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME. MAY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY AS WINDS PICK UP AND TURN
SOUTHERLY...BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID MORNING BURN OFF IN
EASTERN ZONES.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS WRN ND AND SD WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR
AREA AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AREA. MODELS ARE
SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO RIDE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WILE A
STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SD WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 1. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY AROUND 40 KTS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS ND...WHILE WRN ND WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE ALONG SD BORDER OR WRN ZONES WHERE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WRN/CNTRL ND AND ADVECT INTO DVL AREA. ECMWF/GFS
APPEAR RATHER BULLISH FOR CONVECTION IN FAR WRN ND BUT MOST MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION DYING OFF OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST/SOUTH WITH MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. ALSO
ADDED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AS HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
WEAK STORMS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND CROSS LAKE OF THE
WOODS...NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN ZONES WHILE
WE SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IN THE WEST BY 00Z MON. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS AROUND 90 F FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS. WILL SEE CONVECTION
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND LATE IN THE DAY...MOSTLY
DRY OVER OUR AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SASK/MB REGION WILL
INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SW
FLOW...AND BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO NW ZONES AND ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS MON
NIGHT OVER MT/WY AND WILL BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CANADA.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON TUE
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY WED. THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE NORTH WED CLOSER TO CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. FOR
THU/FRI...EXPECT TEMPS RISING TO AROUND NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL
SITES...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THE PRESENT TIME. ENOUGH ACTIVITY OVER NW MN PRESENTLY FOR A TEMPO
MENTION AT KBJI THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...WJB


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