Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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927
FXUS63 KFGF 151819
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1219 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Radar returns and observations indicate very light snow mainly
confined to western fcst area with a few flurries elsewhere.
Upstream obs indicate light snow into SW Manitoba but observations
and webcams there indicate nothing too heavy. Idea from short
range models is to continue to have the best snow spreading
southeast into eastern ND and parts of NW MN tonight. May tweek
snow amounts down though for today as unlikely to get more than a
few tenths.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Upper air pattern becomes more progressive. Persistent upper
level ridge that has been in place over the western US will
get rolled over as a significant upper level trough over the
eastern Pacific moves east. Respectable height falls of at
least 160 meters are expected with the eastern Pacific trough
as it moves inland. However the trough will drop into the
Desert Southwest.

A weaker trough over the Yukon will move into southern SASK
by 00z Sun. Little or precip is expected with the trough
itself. However warm advection precipitation will precede
the upper trough. Cross section indicates good warm advection
to occur aloft today through tonight. Cross section indicated
the Red River Valley and east remains decoupled today and Sat.
Will stay on the cool side of guidance for eastern zones.
Colder air moves in aloft Sat.  Low level frontogenesis will
produce the light snow for much of the the northern two
thirds of the valley for today and tonight. One to three
inches of snow still looks good for today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

An upper trough will be digging into the western US on Saturday
night with the northern branch remaining more progressive through
the rest of the weekend. A weak short wave will move through the
Northern Plains on Sunday without much fanfare. High pressure will
reside over SD on Sunday but will move off to the east Sunday night
as the next upper wave and surface trough approach from the west.
This wave may bring a couple of inches of snow to parts of the area
on Sunday night and Monday. South winds will switch to the northwest
on Monday as a cold front moves through the area also. The next
system may affect the area on Wednesday and Thursday. This system
looks to be stronger than the Monday system...possibly producing
more precipitation and ushering in colder temps for Friday and the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Ceilings to be mainly in the MVFR range thru the pd at most sites.
Though VFR at DVL until tonight. Vsbys varying from as low as 1-2
SM in light snow tonight to unrestricted.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Riddle



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