Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
639 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Issued at 633 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Current impulse rotating around upper low impacting mainly the
north half of the forecast area. Most high resolution model
guidance continues to rotate band west and southwest overnight.
May see more mixed rasn this evening over the n-nw however HRRR
warms 925mb temperatures overnight so current thinking of minor
accumulations seems reasonable. Made some pop adjustments to
account for near term radar trends but overall current forecast
on track.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Forecast continues on track so overall little change was made.
Upper low drifting a bit west now toward Cooperstown. Radar has
been showing an area of rain on north and west side of the upper
low continuing to move west and northwest with additional rain
spreading north to the east of the upper low attm. So message is
at least into the evening is highest chances for precipitation
eastern ND with a dry slot into the southeastern and eastern fcst

850 mb temps remain a bit above zero north of the upper low into
northeastern ND back toward DVl basin. This warm layer hangs
around tonight then goes away Tuesday. Surface temps continue to
slowly warm a bit into northeastern ND but overall expect not a
big temperature range tonight due to thick clouds and low level
moisture. Temps in area of concern...W of DVL and Cando and
Langdon 33-34F and dont expect any change. It would be a mix of
snow and rain this evening with these bands and with temps as they
are impacts should be minimal.  But something to watch closely.

Tuesday will see the moisture being cut off from the upper low and
a transition to more drizzly weather with patches of wet snow.
Temps above freezing so again little impacts anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Tuesday night to next Monday...Overall weather impacts to be
confined to light precipitation mid week and a gradual cooling trend
into the weekend. Highest chances for light snow will be Wednesday
morning with accumulations around an inch possible. Light snow will
mix with rain during the daytime hours limiting accumulations. Upper
low pressure system will finally move enough to the east ending the
potential for measurable precipitation during the day Thursday as
saturation aloft diminishes, read no seeder/feeder mechanism and
less upper level lift. North winds on the backside of the departing
system Thursday will draw a bit cooler air into the northern plains.
As a result the end of the week and into the weekend will be dry
with temperatures ranging from around 30F for highs and teens or low
20s for lows depending on cloud cover.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

CIGs waffling between mvfr/ifr conditions however expect general
lowering during the overnight into mainly ifr. VSBY currently not
much of an issue and not really anticipating anything blo mvfr
categories through the period.




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