Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TEMPS ARE WARMING A BIT MORE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH
SUNSHINE...SO WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME HERE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.

THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WHERE CIGS
HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
EASTERLY AIR TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND NO STRATUS DECK TO
THE NORTH TO ADVECT IN...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. GUSTY
ENE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF.  WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.

COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.  TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB






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