Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222126
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
326 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Clouds and their effect on temps will be the main challenge for
the period.

Northwesterly flow aloft continues across the region, with one
weak shortwave moving off into Ontario and helping push the trough
through the Dakotas. There will continue to be some very light
snow and even some mixed precipitation for a brief period on the
backside of the band through this evening, but the precip should
rapidly taper off after sunset. With the surface trough axis
moving east high pressure will begin to build down into ND this
evening. Think there could be some brief clearing in some areas
behind the low, but the HRRR and RAP both develops some stratus
and maybe fog along the baroclinic zone. There were plenty of
clouds under the surface high this morning in Canada, although not
much fog. Given the time of year it is possible we will see more
cloud cover than expected overnight, with teens to low 20s for
lows.

Tomorrow`s temperatures will be highly dependent on what happens
with clouds. Warm air advection starts early, with both 925mb and
850mb temps into the low teens across our southwestern counties.
The question will be if any of that gets mixed down or if we just
end up with a huge inversion. The next surface trough will be
approaching from the west, so central ND and even our far western
counties could see some southwesterly winds that will help get
clouds out and allow temps to warm. Have some highs approaching 50
in the southwest, but further north and east we will still be in
the cooler air and clouds. Still have temps fairly warm in
comparison to recent days, but staying in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Will see a mainly progressive pattern in the extended period, with
generally near to above normal temperatures and chances for
precipitation.

Thursday night and Friday will be much warmer as the upper level
ridge builds over the region. Will see strong warm advection at the
850 hPa surface with temperatures forecast to reach from 12C to 14C,
which translates to high temperatures near 40 in the north to low
50s in the south. Residual snowpack in the north may affect
temperatures a bit but still looking at above normal values for this
time of year.

The system crossing the area on Friday will trigger some
precipitation, mainly in conjunction with the trailing cold front,
with the main precip type in the form of rain. Some light snow can
be anticipated as the system exits, with the cold air intrusion
changing the precip type to light snow. As the low strengthens
across southern Ontario, look for northwest winds to increase and
gusts should push into the 30-45 mph range.

The weekend will be drier as high pressure settles in and
temperatures can be expected to be near normal. As the surface high
retreats, return flow will help bump temperatures again for Sunday
into Monday.

By Monday night, the upper pattern shifts more to a split flow
regime, with the northern branch across southern Canada and the
southern branch carving a deep trof over the intermountain west.
Looking for a wave to develop in the central plains along the
southern branch, with a chance for light precipitation in the
southern forecast area by Tuesday morning. Otherwise, expect mainly
dry conditions beyond Tuesday through the end of the period, with
temperatures cooling slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Light snow over the northeastern TAF sites has brought vis down at
KTVF and KBJI, mostly in the 2-5SM but at times down to 1SM. Snow
has momentarily ended at KGFK but more seems to be coming in on
radar shortly. Ceilings are down to MVFR with the heavier snow
bands but VFR otherwise. The snow will move eastward today and
should exit the forecast area this evening. VFR ceilings will
continue for much of the afternoon but think there will be some
clearing overnight before more mid and high level clouds come back
in tomorrow morning. Winds will decrease and shift around to the
northwest or west tonight as low pressure moves through. Winds
will be back to the south again by the end of the period as the
next system approaches, but under 12 kts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JR


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