Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 152006
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
306 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Bands of showers and thunderstorms will continue to propagate
northward through the evening in warm advection zone ahead of well
defined wave and associated surface low over the central plains.
As surface low along the NE/SD border region and elevated warm
front approaches late afternoon and this evening and warm
advection is maximized over portions of the fa will have to
monitor for potentially stronger storms. Best chances and highest
pops will shift into the northern fa by late evening. Temperatures
not likely to do much overnight.

Less certain about rain potential tomorrow. Cold front will
propagate east and will be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. If there is a potential for T tomorrow
afternoon it will be short lived. Otherwise, main shear axis will
rotate through so will keep some lower chance pops going however
low level forcing looks to be lacking. With cold advection during
the day and clouds any recovery will be minor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Saturday night through Thursday

Drier conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night with isolated
rain showers possible across the region Monday. Temperatures during
this time Will remain seasonal with highs climbing into the upper
60s and low 70s with overnight lows dropping to the mid to upper
40s. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday as a cold
front moves across the state in association with an upper level
trough ejecting out over the northwestern US. While still several
days out, long term guidance suggests CAPE and shear values
supportive of severe thunderstorms across central and eastern ND
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Temperatures should rebound
with highs in the low to mid 70s for Wednesday and Thursday with
drier conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue through most if not all of the period.
VSBY will generally be VFR but could go down in heavier rain. Made
best attempt with rain mention through the period but will not be
raining all the time everywhere.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Voelker



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