Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160900
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

High pressure centered over northeastern Minnesota early this
morning will continue to provide dry conditions and plenty of sun
through the afternoon across the area. As the high slides further
east, southeasterly winds will begin to pick up behind it,
especially across the western half of the forecast area. This should
help usher in some warmer air (relative to Saturday) with highs
reaching into the low to mid 80s across the Red River Valley
westward while lighter winds further east keep readings in the 70s.

After a dry and quiet weekend, precipitation chances return for
Sunday evening and into the overnight. As upper ridging begins to
flatten across the northern Plains, surface low pressure tracking
across Manitoba will position a frontal boundary across western
North Dakota. Models break out precipitation ahead of this front by
evening and very slowly track it a bit further east overnight. Any
appreciable upper forcing is a bit slower to reach our area (along
with pretty meager instability) so think coverage of any storms will
be fairly limited with the best chances out across western North
Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Monday through Tuesday night...

By Monday morning, the previously mentioned frontal boundary is
progged to have reached the far western forecast area. Showers and a
few rumbles of thunder will continue to be possible throughout the
morning as the boundary continues to slowly track eastward.
Instability will increase throughout the day with temperatures
warming into the mid to upper 80s across the north and mid 90s for
the south. MUCAPE values look to reach 3000-4000 J/kg by afternoon
with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 35-50 kts which should bring better
storm chances along the front by mid to late afternoon near the
valley and continuing into northwestern Minnesota into the evening.
However, any precipitation and associated cloud cover from earlier
in the day could hamper severe chances. SPC`s upgrade to a slight
risk for Day 2 across the southern valley and into northern
Minnesota appears reasonable with more refining in location likely
as the effects from precipitation/clouds earlier in the day are
sorted out. If things can destabilize as projected, large hail (2
inches or so), strong winds, and an isolated tornado should be
possible.

The front will finally exit the forecast area to the east overnight
with the bulk of any precipitation out of the area by Tuesday with
just some lingering chances across the far southeast. Relatively
cooler northwesterly winds behind the front will bring high
temperatures back down to around normal values (low 80s).

Wednesday through Saturday...

Long wave trough over northeast Canada expands into the New England
states by the end of the period. Long wave trough retrogrades a bit
over the gulf of AK. Low amplitude long wave ridge builds over the
northern Rockies.

The GFS was a faster solution than the ECMWF and becomes
progressively faster with time. The ECMWF was trending farther north
over the last couple model runs while the GFS was vacillating
around.

High temperatures were decreased a degree on Thu and Sat, and one to
two degrees on Fri. Little change to high temps on Wed from
yesterdays run.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

VFR...potential for some BR/FG vcnty TVF and BJI tomorrow morning
but should be a brief period and patchy. Winds will switch more SE
tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Lee/JH
AVIATION...Speicher



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