Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200829
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
329 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Main challenges will be the heat and humidity today and also tstm
chances developing again by tonight. Things are quiet right now,
but southeast flow is keeping it warm and humid still at this time
of the night. There are a few fingers of lower clouds extending up
into the FA. One finger is located from Gwinner to KDVL and
another is over west central MN. Otherwise just some cirrus
blowoff from storms out west. Therefore should start the day with
quite a bit of sun again, helping to make a run into the 90s
today. Dew point readings should also rise, getting into the low
to mid 70s by afternoon and early evening. With this combination,
heat indices get into warning criteria over the central and
southern Red River Valley over into portions of west central MN,
and advisory criteria elsewhere. Have therefore matched adjacent
offices with excessive heat warnings and advisories for the FA
thru early evening.

As for tstms, 700mb temps do rise to +12C to +14C today, which
should cap tstm development during most of the day. By late
afternoon into tonight, a weak sfc boundary should progress into
western or central ND. Tstms are expected to initiate somewhere
from SW Manitoba down into north central ND, and track southward
during the evening...and possibly overnight hours. SPC day 1
severe outlook places most of the FA along and north of highway 2
in a slight risk for severe weather. This event may be similar to
the one that happened last night, with large hail, strong winds,
and locally heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Several models linger some pcpn across the southern FA into Thu
morning, so left some lower pcpn chances to cover that. Thu
itself looks fairly quiet as far as for any additional tstm
development, so main question will be the heat and humidity again.
High temps look a little cooler and dew points also a little
lower. May be close to heat advisory criteria across the very far
southern FA during the afternoon, but will let later shifts worry
about that. Thu night into most of Fri should stay quiet too, with
chances for tstms looking likely again by Friday night. SPC day 3
severe thunderstorm outlook places the southern two thirds of the
FA in a slight risk, so large hail, strong winds, and locally
heavy rains are likely again.

MCS likely exiting the area Saturday morning, but as 500 mb trough
moves in additional showers and thunderstorms expected through the
day Saturday into Saturday night before exiting Sunday.  High
pressure Monday with the next in our endless parade of systems
moving through Tuesday-Wednesday with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms.  Temperatures not as hot and closer to normal or even
a bit below normal thru the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

VFR conds across the FA... with scattered MVFR cigs and tstms
still pushing eastward from FSE through BJI through 08z. After
08z...some patchy fog is possible in northwest MN through 12z.
Wednesday should see mainly fair skies and a light southerly
blayer flow. Aft 00z... scattered strong to severe tstms are
possible mainly across the northern half of the FA.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ027-030-039-049-052-053.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-028-029-038-054.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ001>003-015-022>024-027>032-040.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ004>009-013-014-016-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Gust


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