Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250902 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SNOW AND WIND WILL BE THE CONCERNS FOR TODAY. UPPER CIRCULATION
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW (09Z) ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BAND OF DEFORMATION
ZONE PRECIP WITHIN THE VALLEY WILL ALSO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THIS
BAND OF PRECIP IF FAIRLY UNORGANIZED...AND DOES BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN. EVEN IF THIS PRECIP BAND CAN ORGANIZE FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO...GIVEN THE FAIRLY WARM GROUND TEMPS AND CONSTANT EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THE PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW IS LOW (MOST AREAS LIKELY A DUSTING A SNOW).

GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG WINDS TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KNOT 925MB
WIND SPEEDS. MIXING POTENTIAL IS FAIR...ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND
WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING...NO NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF DZ/FZDZ ACROSS A PORTION OF WC MN.
HOWEVER...ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING (EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING). THIS AREA WILL SOON BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SFC TROUGH...ENDING THE DRIZZLE. VERY LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WX ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
SIGNAL FOR A QUICK CLIPPER AND -SN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WHILE THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WEAKENS IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE STATES. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF PRECIP WAS TRENDING NORTHWARD WHILE THE
GFS WAS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT, SUN AND
MON AND INCREASE ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON TUE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TOUGH FCST. IFR CIGS MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD THRU MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY 20 TO 35 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV. IFR CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS WED MIDDAY-AFTN BUT UNSURE OF TIMING. VSBYS
LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH IFR VSBYS IN -SN AT TIMES
DVL/GFK/TVF AND EVENTUALLY BJI AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ030-031-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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