Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240545
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS...USING THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SOME
FLAKES WILL FALL FROM THE SKY...NOW JUST A MATTER OF HOW MUCH AND
EXACT LOCATION. FOR NOW...HAVE LIKELY POPS...WITH 0.5-1.0 INCH OF
SNOW. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER WAVE INDUCING 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS LOCATION.

REGARDING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT EVENT...00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED BANDING
POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGION. MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE FAR
WESTERN FA) SHOULD RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DOES EXIST. HOW MUCH HIGHER
COULD THESE AMOUNTS BE IS THE DILEMMA. 00Z NAM12 SUGGESTS AROUND
0.40 INCHES QPF...AND MOST OTHER HI-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
SOMETHING SIMILAR. SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE 10:1-12:1...SO THE
GENERAL 1-3 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES ACROSS AN
ISOLATED AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO
DEFINE THIS HIGHER SNOW AREA YET...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR
THE ACTUAL BAND TO DEVELOP. INCOMING RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE NAM PLACEMENT. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS REMAINS
FURTHER WEST AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUPPORT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD POOR CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN
SOLNS AS WELL AS MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISONS. AS A RESULT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND
REMAINS IN QUESTION. A BLEND OF MODELS SOLNS...GEM/EC/AND NAM HAVE
BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS IS FARTHER WEST WITH ITS
TRACK THUS IS OUTLIER.

TONIGHT WEST WINDS WILL LESSEN AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER NW MN WHERE SOME -SN IS
POSSIBLE WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO INITIATE CHC POPS IN THE DVL BSN AND N
RRV LATE MORNING AND WIDE SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTN. STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW
CLIPPER SYSTEMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2 TO 4C WARM LAYER QUICKLY
COOLING SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS SW ND. MAKING A SHORT PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT WILL BE ALL
SNOW. MOST INTENSE SNOW RATES WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH SNOW LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES EXPECTED WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20MPH RANGE.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING BANDS OF 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF TOTAL QPF. PLACEMENT OF COURSE THE CONCERN...THINKING WIDE
SPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SUNDAY TO MONDAY WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO THE WAA INDUCED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. A LIGHT
BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA PRECIP POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. WINDS BRISK
OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY RISING TEMPS INTO MONDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
SFC WINDS ON MONDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 30S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DEPICTING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM
RIDGE AND BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH. AMPLIFIED PATTERN TURNS TO A
MORE ZONAL REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL...BUT THE
TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL STILL BE LOCKED UP NORTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER. LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVES TRANSLATES TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH THU. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL DRIVE 850MB TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY...MAKING THESE THE
WARMEST DAYS. STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW THURS WILL USHER IN
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER STILL TO END
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEAR SKY. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...TAKING OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES BY LATER
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/WJB
AVIATION...TG





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