Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
107 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Based on temps at 17z did up highs several degrees in most areas.
Otherwise remaining low cloud and fog area around warroad to
waskish is burning off. Have some high clouds moving into ern ND
as expected. Chance of rain in the far NW was trimmed a bit for
this aftn to just immediate towner-cavalier counties.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Observations indicating lowering visibilities east of the valley
within the surface trough (clear sky and calm wind). Will mention
patchy fog through into the early morning hours...and monitor.

Main concern this period will be the potential for a narrow band
of heavier rainfall near the international border tonight. Water
vapor imagery indicates a strong upper level wave across the Pac
NW conus that will spread synoptic forcing into the region after
00z. This forcing will be coincident with strong mid-level
frontogensis and potential conditional instability
(Epv<0)...leading to the potential for a narrow band of heavier
rainfall. Incoming model hi-res model guidance suggests the
location of the narrow heavier band will be north of the
International border...although synoptic models such as the ECMWF
and GFS are further south. Think that areas near the International
border will at least get light rainfall (and when with 60%-70%
PoPs)...but will await greater confidence in location before
raising QPF (if needed). For now...message will be that most
locations near the International border will receive under 0.25
inch of rainfall...with a low potential for heavier amounts (up
to 0.75 inches).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Sunday-Monday...Mostly quiet weather although could be lingering
showers across northwest Minnesota Sunday morning.
Otherwise...ridging builds into the region which should lead to a
couple low wind days with max temps in the 50s. Ideal radiational
cooling conditions Sunday night will lead to temps at least near
freezing...with the potential for colder temps if conditions set
up just right.

Tuesday-Friday...Model guidance continues to show one upper level
shortwave trough and surface low moving from the central plains into
the MS Valley Tue-Wed while another upper wave moves across southern
Canada. The degree of interaction between these waves will impact
precip amounts over our area with current guidance generally
indicating a good chunk of our area in between systems, although
ensemble guidance does show quite a bit of spread in QPF amounts. It
would appear the best chances for meaningful rain would be across
the south closer to the stronger wave/surface low, though. Models
differ in handling the interaction of the upper waves late week as
they pass east of the region, likely leading to differences in the
synoptic flow pattern, which may affect temps, but impactful weather
currently appears unlikely with temps ave to above ave.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions at TAF locations through 06z Sun with south winds
turning southeast and then east and eventually north overnight
into Sunday morning as low pressure moves through. Any rain
expected to stay along the Canadian border tonight and north of
TAF sites. Issue late tonight into Sunday are ceilings as short
range models indicate some MVFR cigs spreading south behind the
system. Kept that idea for the TAFs and seems reasonable. Brief
IFR cig late tonight in cool advection DVL region.




LONG TERM...TG/Makowski
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.