Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

COLD AIR ADVECTION/COLD FRONT AIDED BY TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE
VALLEY CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. RECEIVED 0.2 INCHES OF SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE IN GRAND
FORKS...SO NOTHING MAJOR. DID SPREAD THE HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO
INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS COOLING...SO
ANY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LIKELY TO END WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.

SKY IS CLEARING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT THIS CLEAR AREA
IS PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION VERY SLOWLY. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THIS CLEARING WILL MAKE IT BEFORE HALTING
TONIGHT. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST MUCH OF EASTERN ND MAY
BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT MINNESOTA REMAINING CLOUDY. WILL
CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD THIS IDEA WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESIDENT OVER THE RED RIVER
BASIN AREA WITH A WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA /FROM EASTERN SD ACROSS WCNTRL MN INTO LK
SUPERIOR/ AND BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG TO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHERN SASK. PATCHY CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY FROM
SOUTHWEST MB INTO NCNTRL ND /VCNTY MOT/ WITH SFC TEMPS IN THAT
AREA HAVING DROPPED WELL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHUD PUSH WELL INTO THE CNTRL DKTAS TODAY WITH A
GENERAL THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO EASTERN ND THROUGH THE FORENOON...
AND PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NCNTRL AND
CNTRL MN CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW AND
STEADY DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS NORTH
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES USHER IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE
SEASONABLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWCOVER IN MOST LOCALES SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING
TOO QUICKLY... THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS ENROUTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SAT PM INTO SUNDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR JUST BEGINNING ITS PUSH
THROUGH NCNTRL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS WE CAN
EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING... WITH STEADILY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

MON THROUGH FRI...A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MON AND TUE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS BRIEF COLD SPELL WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEST WINDS SET UP ON WED AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TEENS. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE IN A NW FLOW PATTERN
WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...HOWEVER A WEAK WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME AND BRING A CHANCE
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING TYPICAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS WITH A COOLING TREND NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOG LOOP INDICATED SOME
CLEARING WAS GOING ON OVER FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. ELSEWHERE THE SKY
WAS CLOUDY WITH A FEW SMALL HOLES AT TVF AND BJI. EXPECT CLEARING TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND MAY SPILL INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY PROPER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR SAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST




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