Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 141800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREV UPDATE. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OUT THERE AND
LEFTOVER THICKER STRATOCU IN NW MN. TEMPS BEING HELD IN CHECK WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COORD WITH WFO BIS AND INCREASED SKY COVER IN MY WEST AND SOUTH A
BIT TODAY. HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH WITH SOME
HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT WITH EXITING 500 MB TROUGH EXPECT
DIURNAL CU TO FILL IN ANY HOLES. TEMPS LOOK OK WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND PREFER THE CONSISTENT GFS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR AN
UPPER LOW. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND WRAPAROUND COLD ADVECTION
STRATO CUMULUS. TEMPS WON/T RISE OUT OF THE 50S IN THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD CLEAR AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR SURE...BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE OUT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND. IF IT CLEARS OUT
TOTALLY...THE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST COULD BECOME A CONCERN AND
WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...WARMER AIR AND WESTERLY SFC FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS FROM SUNDAYS READINGS...WITH LOW TO
MID 60S WEST AND NEAR 60 EAST WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM AS
THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM. IT SHOULD BE AROUND 70 FROM THE
VALLEY WEST AND A BIT COOLER FURTHER EAST.

WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...NO SURPRISES TO THE LONG RANGE AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING THURSDAY TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW AND BY FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S FOR HIGHS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS UPPER RIDGING INDUCES 850MB SOUTHERLY
LLJ THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SFC TROUGH DEPICTED ON MODELS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS INDICATING SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN SW
ONTARIO. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR BY AROUND 21Z AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVES E...AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE
REPLACES IT. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN W TO NW THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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