Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190254
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The parade of showers and t-storms continues to the west of fcst
area, but overall declining in number. But since they are west of
our fcst area I was able to update to reduce sky and remove pops
overnight. Skies clearing out nicely over E ND into WC MN.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are gradually
shifting east as the higher mean level CAPEs axis 250-500 J/KG
area expands eastward as well as a slight eastward shift of the
upper jet. Hi-res models have had a decent handle on this and
populated with ECAM guidance for the remainder of the afternoon
and evening...which basically has precip petering out by the 02Z
to 03Z timeframe.

Main challenge becomes a second round of showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow as a stronger upper wave sinks into the valley from MB
tomorrow afternoon. Models not in good agreement with SREF
guidance bringing in higher 50s/60s POPs way too fast and the
ECAM/CONSSHORT generally spreading POPs into the northwest around
18Z and entering the far southeast closer to 23Z tomorrow
afternoon...and mostly keeping the far northeast dry. Prefer the
higher resolution model over the SREF and have went hourly POPs
through the day tomorrow with this guidance. Think with the
stronger wave TS activity will be a bit more than what we saw
today. Therefore went isold TS for tonight and sct TS for tomorrow
aftn.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Overall good agreement with the model solutions through the extended
in terms of the synoptic scale. NW flow aloft flattens to become
more zonal for mid week before another series of 500mb waves induce
NW flow and bring periodic showers and thunder chances next weekend.
Monday night the last vort lobe to wrap around the 500mb closed low
which has been anchored over Hudson Bay will bring showers to the
area overnight. Dry weather and minimal impacts expected on Tuesday
as the flow flattens with max temps rebounding into the 70s. Early
Wednesday a warm front will bring showers and thunder for the first
half of the day with the warmest temps of the week in the afternoon.
Highs in the 80s in central and southern RRV with mid to upper 70s
elsewhere.

Precip coverage for the Thursday and on into the weekend will depend
on timing and location of short waves within the broad scale trough
which begins digging into the northern plains for the end of the
week. With the exception of Wednesday this week temps will continue
to be below normal for the latter half of June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR thru the fcst pd. Expect the cumulus to scatter out in areas
tonight then fill back in with heating Monday. Sct showers
diminishing this evening then re-forming Monday aftn.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Riddle



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