Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KFGF 250843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
343 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

We jumped back one month over the last few days with weather much
more typical of mid to late March than late April. Cloudy, windy
and cold conditions will continue today...with the coldest temps
and wind chills over northeastern ND. Some lingering fog and
drizzle in Bemidji to Wadena area to start the day but with
increasing north wind today that will end.

Next weather system is moving through the central Rockies and will
move into the central Plains today. Low pressure will develop and
move northeast and into far southeastern Minnesota early
Wednesday. Warm advection precipitation will spread quickly north
and east into SE SD/southern MN today and reach west
central/central MN eartly this evening. The precipitation
overnight likely a mix as a pretty good warm layer will exist at
850 mb while the lower levels will be colder and around the
freezing mark. Drier north winds will at first keep the
precipitation mostly south of a Fargo-Bemidji line thru 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A 700 and 500 mb low will develop as well as the system
deepens on its patch toward far SE Minnesota and into central
Wisconsin during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
As the 700/500 mb low develop over NW MN during the day Wednesday
into Wednesday night, precipitation will spread or develop over
most of NW MN and into parts of southeastern ND. Precipitation not
heavy in terms of amounts, but it will last all of Wednesday into
Wednesday night and early Thursday. Colder air at 850 mb by 12z
Wed will be over the area so precipitation will be in the form of
snow as sfc temps in the precip area over 32-34 degrees. Right now
due to lack of heavy snow rates, accumulations of 1-3 inches is
expected Fargo-Wahpeton area to Bemidji and southward. But could
certainly see some locally higher amounts in the Bemidji, Park
Rapids area from this system. There remains some differences in
exact placement of deformation zone precip near the mid level low
and also precip intensity.

Friday through Monday will see minimal impactful weather as
precipitation remains mostly out of the forecast area. Some
lingering light snow changing to rain Friday morning in NW MN is
possible as system departs to the east. As 500mb ridging works into
the area, temperatures will gradually warm with highs in the 40s on
Friday rising into the low 50s during the weekend which is 10 to 15
degrees below normal. By Sunday morning the northern extent of the
precipitation shield of a central plains low pressure system may
bring light rain to far southeastern zones. Do keep a mention of a
rain snow mix depending on time of day with this feature. Monday is
dry with chances to the west of the forecast area as the next system
begins to organize.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The forecast for the next 24 hours focuses on low ceilings that
will be in the IFR category through the night and then improving
from west to east tomorrow. Still...some models are a bit lower
with the ceilings than are currently being observed, so have not
been as pessimistic with the 06Z TAF set.




AVIATION...Knutsvig is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.