Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151836

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1236 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 1232 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Temps have risen nicely across the area late this morning and will
hold on to the inherited max highs with no changes. Filtered
cirrus sliding across NW MN this afternoon did cause for a slight
increase of the sky grids. No other changes made or needed.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Sfc high pressure ridge moving east and extends from near Baudette
to Detroit Lakes to Wahpeton line at 09z. South to southwest winds
west of this axis but still light. Thicker area of mid clouds that
were dropping south from Manitoba has greatly diminished leaving
behind some scattered cirrus. Thus getting some temps near the
zero degree mark over parts of NW MN where winds are calm and
skies clear. Temps in the northern RRV all over the place
depending on wind and cloud cover. A bit warmer over the non-snow
covered far southern RRV and then over central ND where warmer air
is moving in. For today there is considerable high cloudiness
upstream and do look for that to drop south-southeast over the
area as 925-850-700 mb warm advection moves in east of the
building 500 mb ridge. Still expect to see some sun through the
high clouds though with with enough wind developing this aftn
should see enough mixing to allow temps to recover into the upper
20s in the far east to low 40s southwest.

As for fog, at 06z there was fog in the Carrington/Harvey ND area
and that area has not expanded and actually shrunk some. Low cloud
imagery does show some hint at low cloud/fog in a ribbon just west
of Jamestown to Harvey then toward Rugby. Will keep mention of
patchy fog DVL basin to Valley city thru the early morning in case
some develops eastward.

High clouds at times tonight and not as cold as winds remain

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Warmer air at the low levels will move into the area in earnest
Thursday and peaking Friday. As usually the case how much warming
gets to the surface is unknown and some lower spots in the nrn RRV
or Langdon area will be cooler than the rest. But seeing 40s and
mid 50s in northern Alberta Tuesday shows the force of the warmer
air moving in so idea of more 40s and some low 50s seem
reasonable, with a tad cooler in deepest snow areas for Friday.

Sfc trough to move into eastern ND fri aftn and depending on
location do expect a west wind west of the trough which will aid
in heating and that appears to be just west of the RRV. As snow
melt commences areas that do loose much of the snow in the fields
will warm up and could be warmer than even the current fcst shows.
Some locations, esp Fargo, will likely see record highs Friday as
current Fargo record high for Friday is only 48.

The main story for the weekend will continue to be the well above
normal temperatures. Persistent upper level ridging throughout the
central portion of the country will gradually begin to shift
eastward throughout the weekend. An unseasonably warm air mass in
place will allow current high and max low temperature records to
continue to be in jeopardy. As the ridge axis slowly shifts
eastward, low level warm advection will ramp up even more by late in
the weekend.

Attention then turns to the the return of precipitation chances to
start the new week work. Forecast confidence remains fairly low as
model discontinuity remains large. Models still vary considerably on
the location and movement of any upper level/surface features which
will dictate where the greatest precipitation chances will be.
Regardless, temperatures look to remain warm enough for mostly a
rain event with the exception of a rain/snow mention for the far
north along the international border. Plenty of disagreement
continues in regards to QPF with both the GFS and ECMWF much less
bullish than the Canadian, while GEFS plumes continue to depict a
large range in values (with the operational GFS on the very low end
of this envelope).

The more active pattern looks to continue through midweek as the
main upper ridge moves off towards the east coast and the area
returns to more southwesterly upper flow. Although not likely quite
as warm as earlier in the period, above average temperatures do look
to continue.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Look for VFR conditions to continue through the period with mainly
mid and high level cloudiness. There may be some patchy low clouds
in the overnight hours, especially in the northern Red River valley.
Otherwise, winds will generally be 5 to 10 knots from the south,
becoming more southwesterly near the end of the period.




LONG TERM...Lee/Riddle
AVIATION...BH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.