Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180346
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

SAT LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME HOLES
HERE AND THERE. MORE CONCENTRATED CLEARING IS STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CANADA. RAP HAS DECENT RH VALUES IN THE 925 TO
850MB LAYER MATCHING UP WITH THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARDS MORNING. BUMPED UP CLOUDS COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED IN THE TEENS WHILE THE FEW
CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE
THERE APPEAR TO BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK WITH THE WEST
STAYING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS UP A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AS SAT LOOP AND OBS
SHOWED QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAD GOING IN THE
GRIDS. ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THERE HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SOME FLAKES. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST DEPENDING ON WHAT CLOUD
COVER DOES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO LINGER THE
LONGEST IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...BUT JUST HOW COLD
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET. EXPECT THAT SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR WILL
DROP TO AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...WITH CLOUDY AREAS WARMER.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 20 WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WAA ALOFT. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE TO THE S/SW...SO SNOW FREE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOW/MID
20S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SPREADING
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL
MUCH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME WIND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED...AND TEMPS
COULD PEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WIND WITH ABOUT
35-40KT TO MIX FROM 925 MB...SO THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SOME SNOW COVER. IT WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...A BLUSTERY DAY.

ON THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MINIMAL MIXING...WITH
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS AT THE SFC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A BREEZIER DAY FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THEN TURNS MORE ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING
THRU. THE MAIN EFFECTS LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS WAVE. A SECOND MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH MOVES IN BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH THE SFC PATTERN BY 12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MUCH STRONGER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH. KEPT THE IDEA OF BROADBRUSHED SNOW CHANCES
SUN/MON AND WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

CONTINUED TO KEEP CIGS AT THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF BOUNCING BETWEEN CATEGORIES AND PERIODIC
FLURRIES. THINK THERE WILL BE LESS FLURRIES AFTER THIS EVENING BUT
THE LOWER VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR BY MORNING
ALTHOUGH LOWER CIGS WILL HANG AROUND KBJI A BIT LONGER. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR






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