Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131259
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Coldest morning temps have been around the Lake of the Woods,
where Baudette dipped to -35F so far. Going south from there,
Bemidji hit -31F and Park Rapids -30F. Only positive for that
area is that wind speeds have been calm. Already seeing southerly
return flow along and west of the Red River Valley, and cloud
cover has been increasing along the ND/SD border. Updated the
cloud forecast to go a little more cloudy over southeast ND. High
resolution model guidance continues to indicate the potential for
a few flakes of snow over far southeast ND as well, so added a
mention of flurries there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Forecast challenges will be wind chill headlines through the
morning and then more blowing and drifting snow this afternoon.
Sfc high pressure was located over most of the midwest this
morning, with fairly light winds and mainly clear skies the
result. Wind chills will continue in the advisory and warning
ranges through at least noon, so do not plan any changes to these
headlines. The sfc high will shift into Wisconsin through the day,
as the pressure gradient tightens from west to east over the FA.
There is steady warm advection and 925mb winds increase to 25 to
40 knots by 21z. Not a very favorable sounding for mixing the full
brunt of these winds to the sfc, but should at least see some
steadier winds pick up through the afternoon. This should result
in some patchy blowing and drifting snow from the Devils Lake
region into the northern Red River Valley, so added that mention
to the forecast. These gustier winds are expected to decrease
again thru the evening with one more chilly night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A warming trend will commence for the weekend on into next week.
No signs of any pcpn through Sunday night.

Long wave trough off the northeast coast of Canada weakens through
the period. Another long wave trough over the north Pacific will
shift to the west coast of Canada. Northwest flow aloft becomes
southwest flow aloft by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a farther west solution then the GFS. Both the ECMWF
and GFS have trended farther west and north over the last couple
model runs. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon. High temps were
increased about a degree for Tue, increased two to three degrees for
Wed, and increased four to six degrees for Thu from yesterday
package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Some clouds are approaching the ND/SD border region, but so far
they have stayed in the VFR range. Some of these may clip KFAR,
but think they will hold in the VFR range. South winds will
continue to increase and will get a little gusty by afternoon.
These winds will drop off again during the evening. Did not
mention any BLSN in the TAFs, as most of it should remain drifting
snow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ049-052-053.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ006-009-017-024-
     029>032-040.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hoppes
AVIATION...Godon



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