Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140448
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Isold -rw continue so maintain some low end pops across the far
south for a few more hours.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Minor pop adjustments otherwise forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Most organized area of rain over se ND into neighboring west
central Mn vcnty of surface low near Wahpeton. As low propagates
east rain should wind down and last few frames beginning to show
this. Did increase pops this area for a couple of hours before
tapering off. Diurnally driven Shra/isold T farther north now
confined to the international border and these should also
diminish soon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Key challenge for tonight will be timing precipitation out of the
southeast zones near morning as well as potential for fog
development in the southwest where some locations around Sargent
county received in excess of six inches of rain (very localized).
The upper low currently vcnty of Casselton ND will move over the
arrowhead of MN by 12Z while the inverted trough extending into
the southern valley shifts into central MN. Rainshowers primarily
east of the trough axis will move east of area in the 09Z to 12Z
timeframe. Will keep some lower POPs in to blend with neighbors
but expect CWA to be dry by 15Z if not earlier. Challenge to the
west will be potential for fog development in saturated soils of
Ransom/Sargent/western Richland due to high rainfall totals
today. Light NE winds should be light enough to get some patchy
fog across the southeast and have added patchy fog to the area.
Upper ridge amplifies over the region on Monday and will see north
clear most of the day while southern half thins and becomes
scattered by late aftn. Temps should be similar today all areas
except SE, where temps will recover into the lower 70s with the
precip ending early in the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Mon night-Wed...

GFS continues to be quicker moving pcpn toward area early Tue,
however better pcpn chances will hold off until later Tue into Tue
night. Parts of the southern FA could be primed for some severe
weather with 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, but there is not much
evidence of a pronounced low level jet. The activity could spill
over to at least a part of Wed but at this point models are
forecasting quite a bit of cloud cover, which would limit heating
and instability. ECMWF is consistent with that of yesterday,
progressively moving the system east of the region during Wed.
Blended soln still keeps stout POPS over east forecast area Wed
aftn.

Thu-Sun...

For the late week time frame : a fairly fast 500 mb flow along the
southern Canada border will continue to bring a series of weak
systems into the area. A dry and seasonal Thur will be most likely
followed by a shower risk during Fri as the next short wave meanders
through.

The weekend looks dry and warm with the main jet action retreating
north of the international border. This would translate to ma x
temps climbing to just over the 80 degree mark. There doesn`t appear
to be much support for several areas of pcpn depicted by the ECMWF
for the late Sat through late Sun interval.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Extent of IFR conditions main challenge the first half of the
period. Most guidance in agreement that mvfr-ifr cigs will develop
and spread across the fa. Just how far north is in question. with
lack of rainfall feel cigs will be limited to roughly the south
half of the fa to include FAR-BJI with GFK and TVF on the edge.
Conditions should improve through the morning. Feel any fog will
be south of TAF sites but will need to monitor.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Voelker


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