Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Winds will be the primary concern for today with strong WAA,
evident in the broad scale lift being realized in expansive mid
and upper cloud coverage with some echos on area radars across
the Dakotas. There maybe a period of some stronger winds reaching
advisory levels however only for short duration. Convective
chances this evening and tonight appear limited with moisture
recovery slow to return to much of the FA. Most likely scenario
appears to be a few showers in the eastern areas overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Main impacts in the short term will be wind and rain/T potential.
Mid level wave currently over the northern rockies will propagate
NE today. Associated surface low/boundary will reach the central
dakotas by late afternoon. High resolution short range models and
cams have backed off on rain potential in warm advection zone over
the FA from late morning into the afternoon. Nearly all guidance
limits shower potential to northern tier counties where there is
more available moisture and adjusted pops accordingly. Gradient
tightens up this afternoon as low approaches. GFS model soundings
show mixed layer to 850mb with 40 to 50kts through the layer. Do
not feel winds will be that strong but areas west of the valley
could approach advisory criteria for a couple of hours late this
afternoon. Will hold off on headlines but will need to monitor.
As clouds thicken this afternoon temperatures will not be quite as
mild but still above average.

Showers should increase in coverage tonight mainly east of the
valley as column will be more moist and lift to increase as nose
of upper jet approaches. T potential continues mainly during the
evening hours. Brunt of the pcpn should exit the east after
midnight. Temperatures will remain mild with clouds and relatively
warm column.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Next wave ejecting from west coast trough will track across the
central plains. This will put the best chance for showers across
the southern FA. Cloud cover will affect temperatures however with
overall warm start and minimal cooling through the column above
average temperatures to continue.

Cooler temperatures back towards average Tuesday as column
steadily cools. Low confidence on Pcpn chances so for now will
keep dry but this could change.

Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK weakens and moves a little east
through the period. Low amplitude ridge and trough develop over
western and eastern North America.

The ECMWF was a little faster than the GFS through the period. The
ECMWF has been trending slower and farther north and the GFS has
been trending slower and farther south. The forecast area remains in
northwest flow aloft. Short waves forecast to move across southern
Canada Wed through Sat.

Little change to high temperatures for WEd through Fri. Sat highs
were increase one to three degrees over yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Model guidance coming into good agreement in that any showers
today in warm advection will be confined to the far north and east
of the valley tonight. For this limited any mention of pcpn to BJI
later this evening. Surface pressure gradient to tighten today
resulting in windy conditions this afternoon from the valley west
where SE winds of 20 to 30+ kts likely.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.