Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151457
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS
AND MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT OVER YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME DIURNAL CU STILL IS POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY INTO MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO LARGE DIFFERENCES NOTED.

THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY MORNING FROST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
WON/T ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES SINCE AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE
FROST HAVE ALREADY HAD A FROST.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND
WAA. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S.

ON TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND +11C AT
850MB...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHEAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT. EXPECT THE MOST COOLING IN
THE NORTHEAST...WHERE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE +5 TO +8C
RANGE. THE NAM/ECMWF INDICATE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE GFS/GEM ARE DRY AND KEEP ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ALTHOUGH WE MAY NEED A LOW POP EVENTUALLY FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF RATHER UNSETTLED.
LOOKING FOR 500MB RIDGING ON THU WITH 850MB WARM ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN UP TO 850MB AS WELL. MAIN SFC
FOCUS SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER THU INTO THU
NIGHT...SO KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
ROBUST WITH PCPN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE MUCH
MORE SPOTTY. MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER TIMING ON THE SFC
BOUNDARY IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH MODELS INDICATING EVEN HIGHER SFC
DEW POINTS FRI. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI.
500MB FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH MORE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTING THE FA. SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CIGS WILL CLEAR THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THERE
COULD BE SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT...AT OR UNDER 15KT AND DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK







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