Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Upper level ridge over the Rockies will move east and
flatten over the Northern Plains by Sun and over the
Great Lakes by 12Z Tue. Upper level trough off the BC
coast will follow in tow and move into northeastern
Canada by the end of the period.  would expect
thunderstorms to occur on the periphery of elevated
mixed layer for Mon/Mon night. Upper level jet stays
north of the area through the period.

Water vapor loop indicated some drying/darkening
over northwest ND. Expect a mild day for today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

With upper level ridging parked over the region, Sunday will bring a
dry and quiet day to end the weekend. With surface high pressure
sliding across northern Minnesota, decent return flow begins to set
up on the backside with temperatures warming into the mid to upper
80s across eastern North Dakota while a bit cooler in the upper 70s
or low 80s further east.

As the upper ridge pushes off to the east and begins to flatten, the
area will return to a more active zonal flow pattern. A blended
solution of sporadic PoPs through midweek still appears reasonable
with plenty of model differences in regards to timing any
appreciable waves.

The beginning of the new work week looks to be the warmest (mid 80s
to mid 90s) before models begin to diverge on their degree of
cooling for the end of the period.

Tuesday through Saturday...

The active pattern is expected to continue for the most part through
the rest of the work week. The region will be stuck in zonal flow
aloft before transitioning to slightly more northwesterly flow
between an upper low near Hudson Bay and ridging continuing to build
across the southern CONUS. Numerous waves passing through the flow
will bring sporadic chances for precipitation/storms through the
remainder of the week (severe not out of the question but dependent
on the time of day and strongest forcing matching up). Not everybody
will see precipitation every day but at least daily PoPs are
reasonable for portions of the area throughout the period. As of
now, Thursday looks like the day with the best chances of being dry
for most.

Following Monday`s warmth, temperatures should turn a bit more
seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

VFR thru the pd. A wind shift will move east-southeast across the
area with south winds turning northwest GFK/FAR/TVF overnight and
into BJI Sat AM. Winds already NW at KDVL. Cirrus around for a
time overnight south and east with mostly clr DVL region. Few CU
or bit of cirrus Saturday.




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