Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021835
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1235 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

ADJUSTED POPS FOR SNOW COMING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO THINK WE WILL GET ONLY MINOR SNOW
COMPARED TO FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY
TO MAYBE GOING UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAIN ISSUE IT TEMPERATURES AS MANY SITES ARE ALREADY AT THEIR
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE DAY. IT WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMING IN LATER TODAY AND ANY DAYTIME HEATING WE GET
THROUGH THE CLOUDS. FARGO CAME DOWN A DEGREE OR SO...THUS FOR A
START HAVE TEMPS IN SOME AREAS DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO AND THEN
RISING BACK UP...WITH A FEW OTHER SPOTS SHOWING A MINOR RISE IN
READINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLURRIES CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION WE HAVE FOR THE MORNING
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

STILL HAVE A LITTLE FOG OUT IN THE KDVL REGION AND FLURRIES
SCATTERED ABOUT. FORECAST LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CLOUDS/TEMPS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW THROUGHOUT. AS OF NOW MOST OF THE FA IS CLOUDY WITH
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS. LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SUNK SOUTHWARD AND HAVE
MADE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO KBWP. THESE ARE MASKED BY THE HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SO OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A CLOUDY DAY. TEMPS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN WARMER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BECAUSE THERE HAS
BEEN MORE SUN THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER TODAY LOOKS CLOUDY SO HAVE
STUCK WITH HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW FOR NEARLY
STEADY TEMPS. SEEING SOME FLURRIES AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN GF
WITH SEVERAL OTHER METAR SITES REPORTING THEM TOO...SO HAVE STUCK
SOME IN THRU THE MORNING HOURS. NEXT SHIFT CAN EXTEND THEM IF NEED
BE.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A LITTLE FOG IN THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST AND
WILL INCLUDE THAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOO. QUESTION THEN
SHIFTS TO WHETHER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM SYSTEM CAN PUSH ANY
LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FA BY LATE AFTERNOON. OFFICES TO
THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HOW IT HAS TAKEN A WHILE TO
SATURATE SO THEY HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE SNOW INITIATION. THEREFORE
WILL GO WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH DOES NOT
SHOW ANY LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST UNTIL POSSIBLY 00Z WED.
WILL KEEP THE VERY LOW SNOW CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA THE
FORECAST HAD FOR 00-06Z WED...THEN ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN FA WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS
TO BRING A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW TO THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT.
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE HOW LONG THIS WILL LINGER. MODELS SHOW A
THIN SNOW BAND (FROM KMOT TO KBWP) DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INITIAL SNOW AREA. IT LINGERS THIS LITTLE BAND
INTO THU MORNING. HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE
WILL KEEP THU MORNING DRY AND SEE IF LATER RUNS KEEP IT AROUND.
BEHIND THIS WEAK CLIPPER THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COMING DOWN
INTO THE NORTHWEST FA LATE THU NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A SOMEWHAT MUDDY RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NOAM FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD AND COMING WEEKEND...WITH A QUITE MILD NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND AN EQUALLY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN NEAR THE
SURFACE... AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY ...TURNING MARKEDLY COOLER FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY... WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA YET ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE A SEASONABLY
MILD SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BRING AREAS OF SUNSHINE AND THAW
TO NEAR THAW CONDITIONS ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MUCH OF THE RED RIVER BASIN.

MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A NORTHERN
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CURRENTLY FAVORS DROPPING
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
GFS CURRENTLY TRACKS THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
DELAYS THE ONSET OF SNOW BY HALF A DAY. NONETHELESS... BOTH PUSH
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITH SOME SITES ACROSS THE NORTH BECOMING IFR FOR
SHORT DURATIONS. ALSO MAY SEE SHORT DURATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW AT ALL
SITES...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 4SM TO 6SM AT WORST. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY END OF 18Z TAF TIMES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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