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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDER HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA NOW AND SHOULD SLOWLY PINWHEEL AROUND THE
FA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH PCPN LEFT NOW CLOSEST TO THE
ACTUAL LOW...WHICH MEANS SOUTHEAST ND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN MAY BE DONE WITH PCPN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SD
INTO SOUTHERN MN. IF THUNDER FORMS DOWN IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...MEANING IT WOULD GET DRAWN UP INTO OUR FA. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY FAVOR MORE ACTIVITY WORKING UP INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
THEN UP AND AROUND INTO OTHER AREAS OF NORTHWEST MN AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER
12Z GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONCERNING ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES BUT HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON TRACK OF CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL
SD WHICH WOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FORCING. ECMWF LIFTS LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH FA WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW
FAIRLY STATIONARY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AND BOTH SOLUTIONS A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS
AFTER THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

WILL SEE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ARC OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FA. CONVECTION LOOKS STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN LIFTING THROUGH FA. WILL AGAIN SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM N-S AS FAR SOUTH STILL CURRENTLY AROUND 70 WITH 50 ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WITH EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL FA INITIALLY PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF FA
HAVING STALLED OUT BUT BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND HAS
WEAKENED SOME. OF MORE CONCERN IS ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SD INTO SOUTHERN FA. LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
30-40KTS HOWEVER DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING COULD BE SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SD E-W BOUNDARY SETS UP AGAIN ALONG ND AND SD BORDER AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WHILE PROBABLY NOT SEVERE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS POINT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS DVL BASIN AS
COULD SEE BORDERLINE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN BANDS ACROSS FA AND NON-SEVERE T POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH HALF
OF FA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ALONG ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CUT OFF LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
H2O VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SD SURFACE LOW DRIFTS N AND S
THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER THIS AREA. GFS
QUICKEST IN SHIFTING LOW EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
COLUMN NOT PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHIFTING THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS AWAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF
TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW BY NEXT SATURDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN LOW POPS...AS THE UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CIGS MAINLY IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA AND
EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3
OF FA. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
IFR VSBY IN FOG CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN FA...BJI TAF SITE BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AM. MORE SHRA/TSRA ON TAP
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER