Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 180335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED. THE
SLOWER TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
BECOMING CLOUDY MAINLY AFTER 12Z.

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR/RAP ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF HALLOCK...BUT COVERAGE
IS STILL MINIMAL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENT CLEAR SKY WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH IDEAL RADITONAL COOLING SET UP. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TEMPERED OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF CWFA WILL HAVE OVERCAST SKIES BY 12Z
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WEAK 500MB TROUGH TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN AS SOUTH WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AS
PWATS REACH THREE TO FOUR TENTHS. HOWEVER LIFT IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITHIN THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS
COLUMN WARMS WITH MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW ESCORTING IN DWPTS INTO THE
MID 20S. MAY SEE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REINFORCED GIVEN THE COLD
SFC AND MOIST LOW LAYER.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WEST OF THE
LOW OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS
CLOUDY...WINDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPDATED GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE MVFR CIGS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY AFFECT TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR FOG...BUT AGAIN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.