Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 262036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS







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