Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240254
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Main concern for update is frost potential. Clearing has occurred
across the north half of the fa and continuing to clear over the
the remainder. Does appear to be some ci moving in from the west.
Most areas in the FA adjacent to expanded frost advisories still
have dewpoints in the mid 40s. Cannot rule out some localized mid
30s but overall nearly all guidance showing lows around 40 so will
hold off with any frost headlines. Did lower temperatures a
degree or two though. No other changes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Frontal system will move east into eastern ND Thursday morning and
weaken and wash out in time as it moves east thru the RRV and into
NW MN Thursday. A band of clouds and showers with the front will
diminish in coverage as it moves east.

Friday will see west winds and temps nr normal as the upper
low/sfc low move slowly east into central Manitoba. Sufficient dry
air south of the upper low to limit any risk of aftn/eve showers
to the far north closer to the low.

Friday night through Tuesday...The models are in decent agreement on
the overall pattern of an upper trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes early in the weekend,
with north to northwesterly flow aloft behind it. The ECMWF is more
progressive with the trough axis moving east than the GFS, but all
have spotty QPF throughout most of the period with cyclonic flow
aloft and various weak shortwaves coming down the backside of the
upper trough. Timing of these features is impossible to nail down at
this point so will keep the blended POPs with 20-30 percent chances
for much of the period. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
seasonal averages through the holiday weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Sct-Bkn VFR cloud cover will continue to decrease in coverage
through the evening and anticipating sct clouds by 06z region
wide. Remainder of the period VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Riddle/JR
AVIATION...Voelker



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