Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260825
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY SETTING UP MODEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TREND OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT SURE OF DEGREE OF HAZE/SMOKE TODAY AND IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TONIGHT IN CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
EAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITED ANY POPS TO THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANYTHING HAPPENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER CURRENTLY LOOKING AT VALUES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BUILDS AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 80S. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
THRU THE FLOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR STORMS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR



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