Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 242014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KFAR. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KFAR THIS EVENING...CIGS AND VSBY WILL REMAIN
VFR. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL (WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY)...SO THE RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...TJG



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