802
FXUS63 KMPX 152020
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
320 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
tomorrow morning. A few severe storms are possible along with the
threat of heavy rain.

- Much cooler temperatures behind this system will hang around
through the end of the week.

- Next chance for showers and storms arrives late Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A stalled frontal boundary is draped across central Minnesota early
this afternoon. This has been the focus for some sub-severe
thunderstorms throughout the morning and this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected over the coming hours as
further destabilization continues along and south of the front.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
central Minnesota and western Wisconsin through this evening.
Dew points are in the low to mid 70s with temperatures in the
upper 80s, allowing for heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
While there is no shortage of CAPE, the shear environment is
marginal. This should lead to some fairly unorganized convection
with the threat for a few strong to severe storms along with
some heavy rain due to slow storm motion. The front will slowly
begin to sag southward late this evening through the overnight,
with most CAMs showing a line of storms on the leading edge. The
front will also work to bring some smoke back to the surface
across far west central Minnesota, though this should be short
lived. As instability decreases after dark, the focus shifts to
more of a heavy rain threat with PWATs approaching 2". An MCV is
forecast to move across northern Iowa early tomorrow morning,
leading to another uptick in storms across much of
central/southern Minnesota and eventually western Wisconsin.
Generally, QPF totals through tomorrow range from an inch to an
inch and a half, but locally higher amounts of 2-3" aren`t out
of the question. Temperatures tomorrow will be some 20-30
degrees cooler behind the front with locales across central
Minnesota topping out in the low 60s with mid 70s further south.
Rain will gradually taper off by late tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday will feature drier conditions and highs in the
low to mid 70s. Our next chance of precip is late Friday into early
Saturday as a shortwave moves across the region. Highs in the 80s
return for the weekend with mostly dry weather expected. A more
active pattern is on the horizon with several disturbances tracking
across the Upper Midwest with temperatures increasing through the
week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Some scattered development of storms and showers is occurring
along the cold front in west/central MN and near the Twin Ports
associated with the warm front. Models continue to show a messy
storm mode along the front as it sags southward this evening. As
the boundary stalls, storms could train over parts of east-
central MN and western WI. Mostly SHRA is expected, but with
plenty of instability present, periods of TSRA will remain a
possibility. There is just limited wind shear, so storm
organization will be lacking making it more of a pulse-y
environment. Cigs will gradually lower through the night, with
all sites reaching low MVFR, and many dipping into IFR for a
period tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Confidence is high for a 2-4 hour period of storms this
evening, but the exact timing is uncertain. Recent model trends
indicate a later start time, closer to 02z, however the early
development out west warrants keeping 01z as the start time for
the TEMPO this evening. The boundary stalls overnight, and
scattered showers and storms will move from west to east. There
is a chance (30-50%) that this cluster of rain stays north of
KMSP, allowing a 6-8 hour window of dry conditions before more
consistent yet less intense rain tomorrow morning. We could see
BR/DZ continue after 18z tomorrow, especially if the low cigs
hand around longer than expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA after dark. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA early morning. Wind SE bcmg N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BED