895
FXUS65 KPSR 120529
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1029 PM MST Sat May 11 2024

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to climb into early next week. Desert
locations will be hovering around 100 degrees beginning Monday
and continue through most of next week. Typical dry conditions
will persist through next week with late day breeziness. There
will be a risk for a few showers in the higher elevations of
northern and eastern Arizona by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Midday water vapor imagery showing a well defined upper low across
northern AZ/southern UT. This circulation will be responsible for
a few showers well to the north of our region this afternoon.
To the south, in our forecast area, the southern periphery of this
low will result in another afternoon of gusty winds as upper
level winds mix down in afternoon heating with continued elevated
fire weather conditions.

Otherwise, this system will slowly exit the area to the east with
some weak height rises in it`s wake for Sunday into Monday. This
will allow desert temperatures by Monday to climb to around 100,
with some lower 100s into SE CA. Height rises are not too
anomalously high, so temperatures will remain just slightly above
normal and keep most areas in minor HeatRisk.

By the middle of next week, another upper low moves in from off
the SW CA coast. This will produce height falls again across the
SW US. Not enough moisture for showers, except for in some higher
elevations to the north of the forecast area. A northwest flow
around this low would suggest the potential for some occasional
outflow winds dropping south across the deserts, but too early to
get detailed on this, just something to monitor as we get closer.
The lower heights would also suggest keeping temperatures in
check, right around that century mark through the end of the week.
So, the good news, no developing excessive heat in the 7 day
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0529Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
There is uncertainty in wind directions tonight, especially at
KPHX. Northerly winds now may shift back west for a few hours,
with some variability. Confidence in the east shift at KPHX is low
and may occur as late as 14-15Z. The other terminals will see more
typical diurnal tendencies. Light variability is expected at all
terminals through Sunday morning followed by westerlies prevailing
by noon local time. West winds will increase up to 7-10 kts with
afternoon gusts up to 15-20 kts. SKC will prevail, with the
exception of a few cumulus to the north Sunday afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Light winds will prevail through the night at both terminals, with
W to NW component favored at KBLH and W at KIPL. Light variability
is expected at both terminals Sunday morning. Winds then shift
back N at KBLH and W at KIPL Sunday afternoon with sustained
speeds up to 10 kts. Sundowner winds at KIPL Sunday evening may
lead to occasional gusts up to 20 kts. SKC will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of periodically gusty winds, dry fine fuels, and
low humidity levels will yield an occasionally elevated fire
danger through next week. Temperatures will continue warming
through early next week, reaching and maintaining an above normal
threshold. Seasonably dry weather should also persist across the
districts with minimum afternoon humidity levels around 10% at
lower desert elevations and in the teens over higher terrain
areas. Overnight recovery will range widely from poor to fair in a
20-50% range. Typical afternoon spring breezes 20-25 mph will be
common over most areas, though it should be noted there is at
least a 25% chance of enhanced gusts and erratic directions at
times during the middle of next week from outflows resulting from
showers and storms over the mountains of northern AZ.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frieders
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...18/Frieders