Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 290502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S RIGHT NOW. LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
EASTWARD.

SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY... BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST BY THE
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
TENDENCIES FOR THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAIN WITH OPEN FLOW
DOWNSTREAM. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
KEEP THE VERY COLD AIR WELL NORTH WITH GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE COOLER THERMAL FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...AS THE
ASSOCIATED MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHARP
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE ADVECTING EASTERN PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPER WAA ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT...PEAKING SAT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE ROCKIES. FORECAST MODELS ARE
SUPPORTING A TWO PHASE IMPULSE EJECTION ...WITH THE LEAD COMPACT
IMPULSE ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE BULK
OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL PASS NW OF
THE FA...SHUNTING MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES NW OF THE FA WHILE
FORCING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST SUNDAY...MAINLY REMAINING ACROSS THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO WHERE THE BULK OF LSA AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL REMAIN. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NE WY. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF SYSTEM ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
MILD FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




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