Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 170532

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1032 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper level ridge across the Northern Plains this afternoon.
Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 on the plains with lack of
snow cover. Still some 50s where snow cover is rapidly melting.
Upper ridge breaks down tonight, with shortwave crossing North
Dakota on Friday. Weak cold front slips through the area Friday
with highs around 10F cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Weak shortwave crosses the area Saturday. Models in decent
agreement with increasing mid level moisture. Weak lift and steep
mid level lapse rates may result in some light showers, but low
levels remain rather dry. Will leave out mention of precipitation
at this time. Stronger trof moves across the area Sunday night
into Monday. Thermal profiles warm enough for rain on the plains,
with rain/snow mix for higher elevations of the Black Hills.

Extended models continue to show strong low moving into the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. GEFS members show wide spread in
potential track of surface low and location of greatest QPF.
However, several GEFS members support ECMWF/GEM with potential for
heavy snow across western South Dakota. Have increased POPS and
trended lower with temperatures. Hard to pin down specifics this
far out, but it certainly looks like we`ll see some accumulating
snow in the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 1030 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Due to a
southwesterly low level jet, low level wind shear is expected on
the southwest SD plains through the early morning hours.




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