Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KUNR 201812
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1112 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY LL FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC HAS SUPPORTED QUICK EROSION OF LL
STRATUS/FOG ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...SAVE FAR NW SD AND FAR SE
SCENTRAL AREAS. HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. HAVE ALSO BUMPED TEMPS UP IN THE HILLS...MAINLY THE FAVORED
EASTERN PERIPHERY DOWNSLOPE RING. OTHERWISE...ALL ELSE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CNTRL
SD WITH WDSPRD STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NWRN SD THROUGH SCNTRL SD.

TODAY...STRATUS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG ACRS FAR WRN SD...WILL
PERSIST THIS MRNG BEFORE BREAKING UP AND SHIFTING EWD THIS AFTN.
RETURN FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY NERN WY INTO THE BLKHLS.

FRIDAY...PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL SCOUR
OUT ANY REMAINING ARCTIC AIR ACRS THE CWFA WITH HIGHS INTO THE
40S...WARMEST ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS DUE TO WLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD BEFORE A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS COLD AND MOIST AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR SNOW BEGIN SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CONSIDERED ADDING BLOWING SNOW TO
THE FORECAST...BUT UNSURE OF HOW MUCH SNOW THERE WILL BE TO BLOW
AROUND...SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATES...BRINGING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE IN CREEK/RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON IN THE KICR VICINITY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...15





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.