Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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919
FXUS63 KUNR 240442
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
942 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Removed some more northeastern Wy and western SD zones from the
winter weather advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 737 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Replaced the winter storm warning that was in effect for the
Spearfish, Sturgis, and Rapid City foothills zones with a winter
weather advisory as the snow has become much lighter in those
areas and radar shows the coverage becoming less widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Friday Night)
Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Upper low is spinning over south central WY, pushing
snow north into the CWA. The heaviest band of snow is over northern
NE/south central SD. Light snow is falling across the southern 2/3
of the CWA, with dry conditions over northwestern SD. Winds have
been only 10-15 kts from the east-northeast. Temperatures are in the
20s to lower 30s.

700 mb low will slide across NE tonight, with wraparound snow
continuing across southern portions of the area but gradually
decreasing from north to south. 850 mb winds are still looking
weaker than they were yesterday, but some patchy blowing snow will
still be possible in breezy northeasterly winds. The upslope radar
signature has dissipated, but the potential exists for it to
redevelop and produce another few inches of snow over the eastern
foothills late this afternoon and into tonight. Areas around
Sturgis/Piedmont have already received 3-5 inches. Will keep Hills
and foothills in warning for now, although that may need to be
downgraded if upsloping does not develop. Will downgrade Pennington
plains to an advisory. Expecting another 3-8 inches of snow
overnight in the warned areas, with the higher amounts across south
central SD.

Models are showing snow ending quickly Friday morning. With weaker
winds now expected over south central SD, not thinking blowing snow
will be much of an issue after the snow stops either. Therefore,
will end warnings a little earlier. There may be some lingering snow
showers over the Hills on Friday, but a mainly dry day is expected.
Highs will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Friday night will be the
coldest it`s been for a while, with lows in the single digits and
teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Mostly dry weather is expected over the weekend and into
early next week, with slightly below average temperatures in the mid
20s to mid 30s. Weak disturbances will bring clouds and the
possibility for snow showers at times. Best chances look to be
Saturday afternoon and evening and then again Monday night into
Tuesday. Drier and slightly warmer weather is expected towards the
middle of next week, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 434 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Snow with IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through the evening
hours, with snow heavy at times across far southern portions of
northeastERN WY and far southern SD. Conditions will gradually
improve late tonight and Friday morning from north to south as
snow tapers off and moves out of the forecast area.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for SDZ025-026-031-
     072-073.

     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Friday for SDZ027-
     029-030-041>044-046-047-049-074.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for SDZ024-028.

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ057.

     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Friday for WYZ055-058.

&&

$$

Update...10
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...10



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